Developing Asia has performed relatively well over the past two years. It led the world out of the 2008-2009 “Great Recession,” recording 9% average economic growth in 2010 and solidifying that recovery by laying the basis for a more moderate – and, one hopes, sustainable –pace of economic expansion. In 2011, despite Europe’s debt struggles and an anemic recovery in the United States, developing Asia’s economies grew at a more restrained but still strong 7.5% average rate.
The biggest economic risk to the region is that Europe hits a financial tripwire and plummets into a deep recession, or that the US recovery stagnates during this election year. Volatility has come to define market behavior, and Asian markets are no exception. Investor sentiment seems driven by daily events rather than longer-term trends.
If the eurozone crisis leads to a sovereign default, contagion could spread to the rest of the world. In the short term, Asia and other emerging economies could be hit hard as finance dries up, choking off trade and investment flows that coursed through European banks – and hitting American banks that need to shore up capital to cover their European exposure. Any new crisis would thus hurt global trade and Asia’s economic growth.
Still, for the most part, developing Asia has little external financial vulnerability. Many countries continue to run current-account surpluses, and have low external debt and high foreign reserves. Most of the region’s banking systems are sound, with a high capital base and low – for now, at least – non-performing-loan ratios.
This gives Asia more room to maneuver in the event of a crisis, and policymakers would likely respond with available macroeconomic tools promptly and decisively, and collaborate regionally. But we must not forget that – as 2008 showed – Asia has not decoupled from the West.
That is why European leaders must speak and act responsibly, and work harder to resolve the crisis. Europe clearly has the political and financial potential to resolve its own difficulties, with the help of European and multilateral financial institutions.
But perhaps there is something that Europe can learn from Asia. In Asia’s response to the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, policymakers adopted measures designed to contract, consolidate, and restructure affected financial systems, particularly banking. It was not easy, but the external environment at the time was conducive to recovery. A decade later, Asia had sufficient savings and fiscal space to stimulate a rapid, solid recovery when the global economy sputtered. Europe, too, must embrace a costly and painful adjustment process as an opportunity to fix its system.
Asia can also help the process of global economic recovery. Certainly, high-saving Asian economies can participate in external financial-bailout packages. But the best thing that Asia can do is to sustain its own robust economic growth. By generating new growth opportunities, Asia can play an increasingly critical role in stimulating the global economy.
That means that developing Asia must escalate its efforts at rebalancing growth by reducing reliance on exports and increasing domestic spending, which would help to prop up import demand. The major challenge is to keep domestic demand growing, despite the region’s strong links to the global economy. Doing so would benefit national economies, bolster regional development, and support global growth.
If Asia can overcome its short-term difficulties, and global financial markets stabilize, the region faces bright prospects. Annual GDP growth this year will likely sustain last year’s momentum and remain above 7%. A recent Asian Development Bank study estimates that Asia could account for about 52% of the global economy by 2050. But that is not a pre-ordained outcome.
In the medium term, Asia faces several challenges, a key one being rising inequality. Years of rapid economic growth have given rise to growing disparities. In urban China, for example, the Gini coefficient, a 100-point index that measures income inequality, has risen from 25.6 in 1990 to 34.8 in 2005. This is unlike the region’s past experience in the 1980’s and 1990’s, when high growth was accompanied by declining inequality.
As a result, domestic inequities now pose major risks to social stability and could hamper long-term growth prospects. That is why governments should seek to ensure that growth is inclusive, with benefits that are widely shared, including by women and the poor, and that these benefits reach isolated areas. Asia’s rapidly aging populations also require social protection, and strengthening access to healthcare and education could help the rebalancing process and contribute to global recovery.
Growing inequality is not just an Asian issue. Inequality in Asia rose after the financial crisis of 1997-1998, and Europe will not be immune to that pattern. Europeans, too, should take steps to ensure that recovery from the current crisis is marked by inclusive growth.
As we enter the Year of the Dragon, Asia’s best contribution may be a calm, sensible, and prudent approach to mitigating any potential global crisis by continuing its steady economic and development transformation.
Haruhiko Kuroda is President of the Asian Development Bank.
Haruhiko Kuroda: 龍年的亞洲
馬尼拉——今年是“黑水龍年”，一個象征著在沉穩，細心和謹慎中實現改變的星象周期。這顯然也是亞洲各國人民和政府的願望，但種種不確定性——無論來自於區域內外——卻在急劇增加。
亞洲的發展中國家在過去兩年間實現了相對較好的發展。它帶領全世界走出了2008~2009年那場“大蕭條”，在2010年實現了9%的經濟增長，並通過構建一個更穩健——希望也更具可持續性——的經濟擴張基礎來鞏固了全球經濟復蘇。在2011年，盡管歐洲債務纏身而美國復蘇乏力，那些亞洲發展中國家依然在種種不利條件下取得了平均7.5%的強勁增長。
對該地區來說，最大的經濟風險莫過於歐洲被金融問題束縛了手腳並陷入一場嚴重衰退之中，又或是美國的經濟在大選年陷入停滯。杯弓蛇影已經成為市場行為的常態，而亞洲市場也無法獨善其身。投資者的態度似乎也不再著眼於長期趨勢，而是被日常事件所左右。
如果歐元區危機最終引發一場主權信用違約的話，那麼這場瘟疫就將向世界各地蔓延。短期內，隨著經濟逐漸干涸，來自歐洲各大銀行的貿易和投資資金流將遭到切斷——那些積聚資金准備應對歐洲區投資風險的美國銀行也將收到沖擊，而亞洲以及其他新興經濟體都會遭到重挫。因此任何新爆發的危機都將損害全球貿易以及亞洲的經濟增長。
但在很大程度上，亞洲的發展中國家應對外部金融沖擊的能力其實很強。許多國家持續實現經常賬戶順差，外債數量不多且外匯儲備充足。該區域大多數銀行系統都相當穩健，擁有較高的資本儲備以及（至少在目前來說）較低的壞賬比率。
這使亞洲在面對危機時擁有更多的機動空間，而政策制定者可以用手中的宏觀政策工具做出更迅速也更加決定性的反應，並實現區域內的協作。但我們也不能忘記——正如在2008年所顯示的那樣——亞洲依然未能完全擺脫西方的影響。
這也是為何歐洲的領導人必須為自己的言論和行為負上責任，並努力解決這場危機的原因。在歐洲和國際金融機構的協助下，歐洲顯然擁有足夠的政治和金融潛力去解決自己所遇到的困難。
但或許歐洲也能從亞洲那裡有所借鑒。在亞洲應對1997~1998金融危機的過程中，政策制定者採用了專門設計來精簡，鞏固和充足受影響的金融（尤其是銀行）系統。那個過程殊不容易，但當時的外部環境是有利於復蘇的。十年之后當全球經濟垮塌之時，亞洲已經擁有了足夠的儲備和財政空間去刺激一場迅速且實質性的復蘇。歐洲也必須接受這麼一場耗費巨大且充滿痛苦的調整過程，並將此視為一個修復其金融系統的機會。
亞洲也可以對全球經濟的復蘇做出自己的貢獻。當然，高儲蓄率的亞洲經濟可以參與到那些外部金融援助一攬子計劃中。但亞洲可以提供的最佳幫助則是持續其自身的強勁經濟增長。通過創造新的增長機會，亞洲可以在刺激全球經濟復蘇的過程中扮演一個日漸關鍵的角色。
這意味著亞洲的發展中國家可以通過減少對出口的依賴並增加國內消費來逐步提升其在重新平衡增長方面的努力，而這也能刺激進口需求。而最大的挑戰則在於如何在與全球經濟保持密切聯系的同時維持國內需求的不斷增長。這樣做一方面對本國經濟有利，同時也能支撐區域發展並支持全球增長。
如果亞洲可以克服這些短期困難，同時全球金融市場又能穩定下來，那麼該區域的前景將一片大好。今年的GDP增長很可能將維持去年的勢頭並繼續保持在7%以上。最近發表的一份亞洲開發銀行研究預計亞洲將在2050年佔到全球經濟總量的52%。但這可不是一個板上釘釘的事情。
在中期上看，亞洲面對著許多挑戰，其中較為關鍵的一個就是不斷惡化的收入不平等狀況。數十年來的快速經濟增長同時也催生了不斷擴大的不平等現象。比如在中國城市地區的基尼系數（一種測量收入不平等狀況的指數，以100分為限）已經從1990年的25.6上升到了2005年的34.8。這和該地區在1980年代和1990年代的經歷是背道而馳的，因為當時的高增長伴隨的是收入不平等狀況的改善。
這樣一來，國內的收入不平等狀況如今已經成為了社會穩定的主要威脅，並可能妨礙長期的增長繁榮。這也是政府為何應當試圖實現包容性增長，建立將婦女和窮人包括在內的大范圍利益分享機制，並將這些利益輸送到偏遠地區的原因。亞洲的快速老齡化人口也要求得到社會的保護，而更多接觸醫療和教育的途徑則有助於整個重新平衡進程並協助全球復蘇。
不斷增加的收入不平等狀況並不僅僅是亞洲的問題。這種狀況在亞洲經歷1997~1998年經濟危機后開始冒頭，而歐洲也有可能步其后塵。與此同時，歐洲也應當逐步確保以包容性增長的方式實現從當前危機的復蘇。
隨著我們進入龍年，亞洲最大的貢獻莫過於通過持續其穩步經濟和發展轉型，以沉穩，細心和謹慎的方式來緩和任何潛在的全球危機。
黑田東彥 (Haruhiko Kuroda) 是現任亞洲開發銀行行長
