This asset class, which is characterized by shared risk between institutions and clients, avoided many of the most severe consequences of the global financial crisis that began in 2008. This resilience, along with several other key features, underpins the high performance and growing popularity of Islamic finance.
The global financial crisis adversely affected a small number of Islamic financial institutions as the real economy contracted and some issuers of Islamic bonds defaulted. But the risk-sharing inherent to Islamic finance made such instruments more resistant to the first round of financial contagion that hit in 2008. Leading economists, such as Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff, have suggested that Islamic finance demonstrates the advantages of more equity and risk-sharing over the conventional bias in favor of debt instruments.
Several distinctive features have made Islamic financial institutions relatively stable throughout the crisis. One such feature is that Islamic finance emphasizes asset-backing, thereby ensuring a direct link between financial transactions and real economic activities. Institutions’ savings and investment returns are closely linked, because they are determined by the real sector, not the financial sector.
This creates a flexible adjustment mechanism, should unanticipated shocks occur. It also ensures that real asset and liability values are always equal, while prohibiting excessive leverage and several forms of complicated securitization. Moreover, Islamic finance is more equitable: lenders and borrowers share risks and rewards, which increases the focus on long-term goals and discourages excessive short-term risk-taking.
In short, Islamic financial institutions treat their clients like business partners. They therefore have strong incentives to evaluate financing requests carefully, and to assist borrowers in bad times, thus reducing the pressure to sell assets at “fire-sale” prices and minimizing the likelihood of financial contagion. Finally, the Islamic financial framework protects deposit balances, and prevents excessive credit growth.
Islamic financial instruments are currently available in at least 70 countries, and today represent about 0.5% of global financial assets. But the prospects for continued rapid growth are strong. In its November 2011 “Global Islamic Banking Report,” Deutsche Bank projects a 24% compounded annual growth rate in Islamic assets over the coming three years. There are five main reasons for this forecast:
· Islamic finance offers savers and investors practical alternatives to conventional instruments.
· The quality of Islamic financial services is improving, and these services are not limited to particular clients.
· Conventional multinational financial institutions are increasingly offering Islamic assets, and there is growing interest in them in London, Luxembourg, and other world financial capitals.
· The commodity boom in some Muslim countries has generated surpluses that need to be allocated through financial intermediaries and sovereign wealth funds.
· Islamic financial instruments can comply with sharia – Islam’s moral code and religious law – as well as send signals of change compatible with recent developments in several Muslim-majority countries.
But realizing the potential of Islamic finance requires strong supervisory oversight. Financial institutions need to enhance pre-lending screening and post-borrowing monitoring. It is also problematic that, in many countries, debt receives advantageous tax treatment, which favors leverage over equity and profit/loss-sharing arrangements. This should change.
Moreover, mortgages, mutual insurance, leasing, and microfinance are underdeveloped in Islamic finance; insolvency and bankruptcy procedures must be improved; and mechanisms to deal with “Islamic bond” defaults must be established. Finally, Islamic financial institutions must address concerns about liquidity-risk management, compliance with Basel III (the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s most recent global regulatory standard), international accounting standards, and corporate governance.
While recent reports emphasize the size and growth of Islamic financial assets and instruments, it is the quality of services, continued financial innovation, and sound risk-management practices that will ultimately define their success. By addressing its shortcomings, Islamic finance could encourage inclusive growth in many developing countries.
If Islamic finance can resolve key regulatory and corporate-governance issues, it has the potential to meet more people’s banking and investment needs, expand its reach, and contribute to greater financial stability and inclusion in the developing world. That is something that everyone should welcome.
Mahmoud Mohieldin is Managing Director of the World Bank.
Mahmoud
Mohieldin: 伊斯蘭金融前景無限
不確定性依然在困擾全球市場，以至於許多投資者因此完全退出了市場，但金融部門中有一部分仍在指數擴張：符合伊斯蘭教義的金融資產從20世紀八十年代末的50億美元增長到了2011年的約1.2萬億美元。
這類資產的一大特征是由機構和客戶共擔風險，2008年全球危機爆發以來避免了諸多最嚴重的後果。這一穩健性和其他幾種重要特征一起，構成了伊斯蘭金融表現卓越、日漸受到人們歡迎的基礎。
由於實體經濟收縮，一些伊斯蘭債券發行者違約，全球金融危機也對伊斯蘭金融機構造成了些許影響。但伊斯蘭金融固有的風險共擔機制讓金融機構在2008年首波金融危機襲來時更具抵抗力。哈佛大學的肯尼斯·羅格夫（Kenneth
Rogoff）等知名經濟學家指出，伊斯蘭金融表明，股權融資和風險共擔要比在傳統上更受偏愛的債務工具更有優勢。
幾大顯著特徵使伊斯蘭金融在整個危機中顯得相對較為穩定。其中之一是伊斯蘭金融強調資產支持，從而確保了金融交易和實體經濟活動之間的直接聯系。機構的投資回報和其儲蓄緊密相連，因為它們是由實體部門，而不是金融部門決定的。
這創造了一個面對意料之外的衝擊的靈活調整機制。這還保證了真實資產和債務價值永遠相等，同時又制止了過度杠杆和各種各樣的復雜證券化形式。此外，伊斯蘭金融還更加公平：貸款人和借款人共擔風險和盈利，因此能夠更關注長期目標，抑制了過度承擔短期風險的行為。
簡言之，伊斯蘭金融機構向業務伙伴那樣對待客戶。因此，它們有很強的激勵仔細評估融資要求，在壞光景降臨時出手援助借款人，從而降低了“跳樓價”甩賣資產的壓力，也讓金融危機蔓延的可能性降到了最低。最後，伊斯蘭金融框架保護存款余額，也防止過度信用增長。
目前，伊斯蘭金融工具已經打入了至少70個國家，占全球金融資產的約0.5%。但其有著強勁的持續快速增長前景。德意志銀行2011年11月發布的《全球伊斯蘭銀行業務報告》預測，未來三年，伊斯蘭資產的年復合增長率將達到24%。這一預測是基於五大理由做出的：
．伊斯蘭金融為儲蓄者和投資者提供了傳統工具的實際替代品。
．伊斯蘭金融服務的質量在改善，服務對像也不再局限於特定客戶。
．傳統跨國金融機構提供的伊斯蘭資產越來越多，倫敦、盧森堡和其他國際金融中心對伊斯蘭金融的興趣也在增加。
．商品繁榮使一些穆斯林國家得到了需要通過金融中介和主權財富基金滙集起來的盈餘。
伊斯蘭金融工具需要既能遵守伊斯蘭教義（即伊斯蘭世界的道德標準和宗教法律），也傳遞了與不少以穆斯林為主體民族的國家的近期發展形勢相符的變化信號。
但實現伊斯蘭金融的潛力需要強大的監管。金融機構需要加強貸款前檢查和借款後監測。另一個問題是，在許多國家，債務償付要優先於稅收，因此杠杆要比股權和盈虧共擔安排更具吸引力。這需要有所改變。
此外，按揭、互助保險、租賃和微觀金融在伊斯蘭金融中還不發達；資不抵債和破產程序必須有所改進；應對“伊斯蘭債券”違約的機制也必須設立。最後，伊斯蘭金融機構必須解決好對流動性風險管理的擔憂，執行巴塞爾III（即巴塞爾銀行監督委員會最新的全球監管標準）、國際會計准則和公司治理。
最近的報告強調了伊斯蘭資產和工具的規模和增長，但歸根到底，決定伊斯蘭金融成功與否的還是服務質量、持續的金融創新和扎實的風險管理實踐。如果能夠克服這些短處，伊斯蘭金融將有助於大量發展中國家的普惠增長。
如果伊斯蘭金融能夠解決關鍵性監管和公司治理問題，是有潛力滿足更多人的銀行和投資業務需求、擴張業務、並助推發展中國家的金融穩定和普及的。所有人都歡迎這樣的進步。
作者是世界銀行常務董事
