Not only is Europe running the risk of lasting economic damage; high long-term unemployment and popular discontent threaten to weaken permanently the cohesiveness of its social fabric. And, politically, there is a real danger that citizens will stop trusting institutions, both national and European, and be tempted by populist appeals, as in the past.
Europe must avoid this scenario at all costs. Economic growth must be the priority, for only growth will put people back to work and repay Europe’s debts.
Understandably, there is a debate about how to achieve recovery. Advocates of austerity argue that debt has a negative impact on growth; proponents of further stimulus counter that it is low growth that generates public debt, not the other way around, and that austerity in times of recession only makes things worse.
But Europeans do not have to agree on everything to find a common course. We can disagree about the long-term effects of liquidity injections, but we can all agree that it is not right to allow profitable companies to fail because credit markets are not working. We do not have to see eye to eye on fiscal policy to understand that it makes more sense to promote investment than to see our productive structure languish. And we all know that it is more cost-effective to invest in retraining the jobless than to allow long-term unemployment.
In any case, doubts about the negative impact of austerity are becoming impossible to ignore. History shows that in a deep recession it is far more dangerous to withdraw economic stimulus too early than too late.
An excessive cut in public spending in the current circumstances can lead to a contraction in growth, which is already happening: the International Monetary Fund now projects that the eurozone will shrink by 0.5% in 2012. Structural reforms are important to guarantee future sustainable growth, but they do not generate growth in the short term, which is what Europe needs. Instead, in exchange for meager progress on debt reduction, Europe risks causing lasting damage to its growth potential.
Compared to a new recession, the long-term cost of stimulus policies is insignificant. In many countries, current budget deficits are the result not of reckless government overspending, but of temporary measures to deal with the crisis. With interest rates already low and the private sector deleveraging, there is little risk of expansionary policies causing inflation or crowding out private investment. By contrast, spending reductions could undermine economic activity and increase, not decrease, the public-debt burden.
Public debt, moreover, should not be demonized. It makes financial sense for states to share the cost of public investments, such as infrastructure projects or public services, with future generations, which will also benefit from them. Debt is the mechanism by which we institutionalize intergenerational solidarity. The problem is not debt, but ensuring that it finances productive investment, that it is kept within reasonable limits, and that it can be serviced with little difficulty.
Yet, ominously, the same arguments that turned the 1929 financial crisis into the Great Depression are being used today in favor of austerity at all costs. We cannot allow history to repeat itself. Political leaders must take the initiative to avert an economically driven social crisis. Two actions are urgently needed.
At a global level, more must be done to address macroeconomic imbalances and generate demand in surplus countries, including developed economies like Germany. Surplus emerging-market economies must understand that a prolonged contraction in the developed world creates a real danger of a global downturn at a time when they no longer retain the room for maneuver that they had four years ago.
Within the eurozone, structural reforms and more efficient public spending, which are essential to sustainable long-term growth and debt levels, must be combined with policies to support demand and recovery in the short term. The steps taken in this direction by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are welcome but insufficient. What is needed is a grand bargain, with countries that lack policy credibility undertaking structural reforms without delay, in exchange for more room within the EU for growth-generating measures, even at the cost of higher short-term deficits.
The world is facing unprecedented challenges. Never before in recent history has a deep recession coincided with seismic geopolitical change. The temptation to favor misguided national priorities could lead to disaster for all.
Only enlightened political leadership can avert this outcome. European leaders must understand that adjustment programs have a social as well as a financial side, and that they will be unsustainable if those affected face the prospect of years of sacrifices with no light at the end of the tunnel.
Austerity at all costs is a flawed strategy, and it will not work. We cannot allow a misconceived notion of “discipline” to cause lasting damage to our economies and inflict a terrible human toll on our societies. All of Europe must agree on a short-term growth strategy – and implement it quickly.
Javier Solana, former EU High Representative for the Common
Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Minister of Defense
of Spain, is Distinguished Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings
Institution and President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and
Geopolitics.
Javier Solana: 緊縮 vs. 歐洲
馬德裡——情況已經越來越清楚了，2008年下半年開始的事件絕不是正常的經濟衰退。進入危機已經將近4年了，發達國家仍然沒有出現可持續的復蘇，甚至是較為強勁的國家也顯示出了疲軟的信號。現在，二次探底似乎已板上釘釘，而歐洲的困境令人沮喪。
歐洲面臨的不僅隻是持續經濟傷害的風險﹔高企的長期失業率和普遍的不滿情緒正在對歐洲社會結構的凝聚力造成永久損傷。從政治上說，人民不再信任現有制度（包括國家制度和歐洲制度）的風險是實實在在的，過去曾經出現過的民粹主義很可能卷土重來。
歐洲必須不惜一切代價阻止這一幕發生。經濟增長應該被列為首要大事，因為隻有增長才能讓人們重新開始工作，讓歐洲的債務重新獲得償付。
不難理解，關於如何實現增長，人們對此頗有爭論。緊縮的鼓吹者認為債務對增長具有消極影響﹔支持進一步刺激者則反擊說低增長才是公債的源頭，在衰退時期採取緊縮隻能讓問題越加嚴重。
但要達到共識，歐洲人並不需要在每一點上都彼此贊同。我們可以不同意長期流動性注入的舉措，但我們所有人都同意，不能因為信貸市場不再運轉而讓盈利公司倒閉。我們不必一致認為財政政策應該更注重提振投資而不是調整生產率結構，這樣才能獲得更好的效果。我們都知道，投資於為失業者提供再培訓要好於放任長期失業高企，這樣做成本更低。
無論如何，關於緊縮的不利影響的懷疑是不可忽視的。歷史表明，在深度衰退中，過早收回經濟刺激的危險要比過晚大得多。
在當前背景下過度削減公共支出可能導致增長倒退，事實上這一幕已經發生了：IMF最近預測歐元區經濟將在2012年出現0.5%的衰退。結構性改革對於確保未來可持續增長來說至關重要，但它們無法產生短期增長，而短期增長才是歐洲所需要的。相反，如要改變債務削減方面進展緩慢的現狀，歐洲將面臨對其增長潛力造成持久傷害的風險。
與再次出現衰退相比，刺激政策的長期成本就顯得不那麼重要了。在許多國家，當前預算赤字並不是政府的魯莽超支造成的，而是應對危機的暫時性措施帶來的。在利率仍然較低、私人部門仍在去杠杆化的環境下，擴張性政策不會造成通脹或擠出私人投資。相反，支出削減可能破壞經濟活動，增加（而不是減少）公債負擔。
此外，公債不應該被妖魔化。幾代國民共擔公共投資成本（如基礎設施項目和公共服務）並無不合理之處，因為后代也能從這些投資中獲益。債務是我們將代際凝聚力制度化的機制。問題不在於債務，而在於債務是否為生產性投資提供了融資，是否被限制在一個合理的限度內，是否可以毫無困難償付。
然而，不幸的是，將1929年金融危機演變為大蕭條的觀點今天又一次佔據了上風——不惜一切代價緊縮。我們不能讓歷史重演。政治領導人應該有所動作，阻止因經濟導致的社會危機的發生。當下，有兩大動作刻不容緩。
從全球角度看，我們應該更好地解決宏觀經濟失衡，在盈余國創造需求（包括像德國這樣的發達國家）。盈余新興市場國家必須明白，發達世界的長期衰退可能導致全球減速，而與此同時，它們閃轉騰挪的空間與四年前比起來已經所剩無幾了。
從歐元區角度看，結構性改革和高效的公共支出（可持續長期增長和債務水平之所必須）必須與支持短期需求和復蘇的政策相輔相成。德國總理默克爾和法國總統薩科齊正在朝這個方向努力，這是件好事，但他們做得不夠。歐元區需要的是共同磋商，已失去政策可信度的國家應該立刻實施結構性改革，以換取歐盟實施促增長措施的空間，就算這必須以更高的短期赤字為代價。
世界正在面臨前所未有的挑戰。近幾年來，我們還從來沒有遇到過伴隨著重大地緣政治變化的深度衰退。採取誤導性的以國家利益為重政策的誘惑可能給所有人帶來災難。
唯有開明的政治領導能夠避免這一結果。歐洲領導人必須明白，調整計劃必須包含社會和財政兩面，如果受影響者面臨需要作出多年犧牲但又看不到曙光的前景，那麼調整計劃將是不可持續的。
不惜一切代價緊縮是有缺陷的策略，也不可能見效。我們不能允許被誤解的“紀律”概念對經濟造成持久傷害，給我們的社會造成可怕的人道災難。全歐洲必須在短期增長策略上達成一致，並馬上實施。
Javier Solana是前歐盟共同外交和安全政策高級代表，前北約秘書長，前西班牙國防部長，現任布魯克林研究所杰出高級研究員，ESADE全球經濟和地緣政治中心主席。
