香港不是一個出政治家的地方，因為香港沒有智庫。
智庫，英文叫 Think-tank，當然，又是現代西方的發明，香港許多中環人，喜歡自我製造活在「國際大都會」的幻覺，近年掛在嘴邊，左一個「智囊」，右一句
Think-tank，然後又是「公關」，以為香港是倫敦和紐約。
當他們看見特首或特首候選人的表現拙劣不濟，就會大呼小叫：嘩，他難道沒有智囊？是哪個公關教的？
幼稚園水準的特區中環政治，實在令人發笑。這等喜歡充「國際」，又「未見過大蛇屙尿」的無知，構成特區十五年管治之慘敗，未來一百年，還會繼續下去。
首先，什麼叫智庫？不是一伙有錢人打本，在中環租一個六千呎的辦公室，僱用一兩個「研究員」搜集「數據」，然後化為幾句陳腔濫調的 Sound-bite，由他們的老闆向市民宣示。
電影《鐵娘子》，把戴卓爾夫人奮鬥的經過濃縮為一齣《阿信的故事》一樣的師奶戲。戴夫人如何上位，許多重大的章節遺漏了，但不要緊，戲是拍給大眾看的。
「戴卓爾夫人」（ Mrs Thatcher）是如何鑄造成「戴卓爾主義」(
Thatcherism）的？前者是一個人物，後者是一套理論。戴夫人在牛津讀化學，然後唸法律，她不是經濟專家，也不是社會學者，為何成為扭轉乾坤的政治家？
這就說來話長了，要從十萬八千里之外的一個表面不相干人說起。一九四五年，歐戰結束，英國大選，邱吉爾落敗，工黨的艾德禮上台。工黨推行社會福利，此時，英國有幾個知識分子，深怕英國走上國家調控的社會主義之路，會像東歐一樣，經濟市場自由最先一點點失去，最後會連人權自由也丟掉。有一個叫費雪的小生意人，在這一年，從美國的《讀者文摘》的專欄，讀到海耶克的新著《通向奴役之路》，大為讚賞。他打聽到海耶克正在倫敦政經學院（ LSE）教書，於是慕名求訪，費雪告訴海耶克：現在英國正處生死存亡之秋，政府什麼都講中央計劃，與蘇聯史達林臭味相投，這樣下去，國家完了。你的理論很好，我想救國家，有什麼可以做？
海耶克抽着煙斗，想一想，告訴費雪：「大戰結束了，百廢待興，未來的英國政治，與戰前不一樣了，將來，影響國家大眾的，不再是強人邱吉爾那樣的領袖，也不是政黨，而是知識專家由科學的角度看問題。」這就是西方現代社會「智庫」的由來，誕生在海耶克的辦公室。費雪出錢，糾集了幾個經濟學者，一兩個思想右翼、視共黨為威脅的退伍軍人，共襄大舉。
費雪不是學者，他錢不夠，穿梭英美，發現美國農場養雞，用電力來孵蛋，一下子把生產力大為提高，他把美國的電力雞場搬回英國，經營雞禽生意，馬上發大財，令他更相信：資本主義的發達，不靠政府，靠創意與個人意志自由。
有了錢就有搞作，十年後，費雪成立了英美第一個現代智庫「經濟事務學會」（ The Institute
of Economic Affairs），奉海耶克為宗師。此時，艾德禮政府已經建立了鞏固的公共醫療、公屋、綜援老人金等福利制度，工會在工黨政府卵翼下，開始壯大。費雪的這個智庫，心焦如焚，在各地舉辦論壇集會，強烈聲討。英國的主流輿論，視之如一群激進的瘋子。
但隨後工會不斷膨脹，以後的麥美倫、威爾遜、希斯相繼上台，早已無力收服。工會領袖可以直闖唐寧街，指導首相如何施政，不答應，就說「政府不尋求共識」，訴諸罷工。
一九七五年，希斯倒台，原保守黨內閣的一名右翼政客約瑟夫（ Keith Joseph），對希斯的無能深感不滿，經濟學會的幾個核心人物，包括費雪，卻又是約瑟夫的朋友。約瑟夫靈機一觸，要挽救保守黨，希斯一幫人全都要換掉，黨必須換血，政策向右轉，重新確立市場自由，以自由市場經濟，摧毀蘇聯早已派人滲透的英國工會。
但要重新奪政，要有新面孔。約瑟夫本來可以問鼎反對黨黨魁之職，他左看右看，看中了年壯有為、同樣信奉自食其力的戴卓爾夫人，決定把這個女人扶上位。
此時戴卓爾夫人並無自己的一套真正的政治信仰，經濟思想也沒有約瑟夫等人之右傾。如何對付工會，她一時也沒有主意，但出選首相，創造歷史，她絕對有興趣。約瑟夫把經濟學會這個智庫，交給戴夫人。智庫的人，與戴夫人一拍即合。戴夫人一九七五年當選為在野的保守黨領袖，把智庫的人接收過來。此時，剛從美國民主黨幫工回來的彭定康，加入了保守黨原有的研究部（ Conservative
Party Research Department），但戴夫人認為研究部多年以來並無建樹，遂另起爐灶，成立了新的保守黨政策組。
同是保守黨，彭定康一直不屬戴卓爾夫人的嫡系，甚至是保守黨內的左翼，最後在戴夫人當權後被調任處理人頭稅，把他往火坑裡推，面和心不和，戴夫人一九九○年黨內政變，彭定康倒戈反戴卓爾，這就是歷史淵源的另話了。
戴卓爾在野四年，除了演說、競選，她的智庫有全英國、也是大西洋兩岸第一流的市場經濟學者，公開內把工會、外將蘇聯定為大敵。海耶克和右翼經濟學家，本來是一股邊緣勢力，源遠流長，水滴成川，最後得以借殼於戴卓爾夫人上市執政，展開一場革命。
今天特首「選舉」的一名候選人，倒也是躊躇滿志。不錯，像一九七八年的英國工會，香港的地產霸權，也要對付的。但香港不是英國，香港地方小，並無理論專才，不論你如何口講 Change，「變」不出當年戴卓爾夫人變成戴卓爾主義的那套路數。
戴卓爾夫人敢向工會宣戰，說得出，無論有幾多陣痛，血戰到底。請問，盛產投機分子、醒目香港仔的「中環」，出得了這種氣勢的人物嗎？我不相信。
何況頂頭還有共產黨。戴卓爾夫人當年出山執政，是民選的。她說：「藥很苦，但對國家需要這帖藥。」這句對白，在電影裡有，但戴卓爾夫人的精神內涵，戲的編導不會跟你講。即使講了，買票看戲的八十後觀眾，也不明白。
香港有許多喜歡模仿白人的西方：智庫、 Spin-doctor、
Change、形象、金句，英美新興的政治詞彙，香港的傳媒、官員、學者，像鸚鵡一樣，很快上口，但中國的香港，無論如何充「國際」，畢竟是秦始皇家天下基因的中國。如果這個民族能成功，一百年前早就成功了，不必在醬缸裡互相噬咬到今日。在一個反智的世代，可能有智囊，在阿公話事的社會，只有管轄黑白道的關公，並無公關。
在無限亢奮的時刻，記住，要照一照鏡子。
There was a fleeting moment when it seemed possible that
Keith Joseph, who has died aged 76, would become leader of the Conservative
party. The double general election defeats in 1974 had left the Tories
dispirited and directionless. Throughout that year and early in 1975 Joseph
made a number of major speeches on the economic principles which should guide
the party. They were a vigorous restatement of classical economic liberalism,
borrowing from the contemporary academic teachings of Frederick von Hayek and Chicago's
Professor Milton Friedman. It was - in contemporary jargon - the message of
monetarism.
Edward Heath, then leading the Conservatives, did not respond charitably to
this innovation: "A good man fallen amongst monetarists. They've robbed
him of all his judgment. Not that he ever had much in the first place".
The comment was characteristically churlish, but Heath undoubtedly felt pique
at those who had served silently throughout the Cabinet decisions of 1970-74
and who were then so noisily introspective following the general election
defeat.
Joseph certainly demonstrated maladroit judgment when he spoke at Birmingham on the subject of the cycle of social deprivation. The cycle was attributed to a combination of the young and poor in a climate of sexual freedom perpetuating a deprived class with little effective hope of self-improvement.
The observation was neither novel or offensive but the choice of such phrases as "the balance of our human stock is threatened" invited misrepresentation. The uproar that followed had Joseph protesting that he was misunderstood and apologising and redefining what he had intended to say. It is no exaggeration to say that his tactlessness and subsequent confusion lost him any chance of replacing Edward Heath as leader.
It is also true that, at heart, he did not have the spine for leadership. The Edgbaston speech merely revealed that underlying reality. Joseph quickly withdrew from a contest he had not truly entered, and later observed "I hadn't the political antennae, the political flair". It was a characteristically honest observation, but there were other shortcomings. He was too kind to have the butcher instincts required of a party leader and whilst intellectually razor sharp, he was indecisive and given to public agonising.
The Conservative party, happily, was spared the leadership of Joseph but was amply compensated by his skills and dedication as the intellectual leader during the opposition years 1975-79. Together with the party leader Margaret Thatcher and William Whitelaw he formed an effective troika of Tory leadership. The Conservatives won a striking general election victory in 1979 and the subsequent years in government demonstrated how well prepared they had been for office. Keith Joseph was given overall responsibility for policy in 1975, and with a relatively modest band of close supporters directed the Conservative party towards the German-style social market philosophy. It was this achievement which makes his career indispensable in the understanding of "the Thatcher years "and which places Joseph among near-leaders alongside Butler, Oliver Stanley and Austen Chamberlain.
Keith Joseph was born into an Ashkenazi Jewish family. He remained devoted to the Jewish faith throughout his life. His father was a self-made businessman, founding the construction company of Bovis, and becoming Lord Mayor of London. The baronetcy, then customary for a Lord Mayor, was inherited by Keith Joseph. Time at Harrow and Magdalen College, Oxford, was dominated by cricket.
Devotion to cricket did not prevent Joseph getting a first in law. During the second world war Joseph, as a Captain in the Royal Artillery, fought in Italy where he was wounded and mentioned in despatches. After the war Joseph took up his fellowship at All Souls where he commenced a thesis on political, racial and religious tolerance. He never completed this work, preferring to join the family business.
Joseph soon showed an interest in public affairs, being elected to the common council of the City of London Corporation and to the finance and general purposes committee of the National Council of Social Services. He contested the parliamentary constituency of Barons Court in the 1955 general election and was narrowly beaten. Shortly afterwards he entered the Commons in the Leeds North by election. The constituency was faithful to him throughout his parliamentary career.
Although never a dominant speaker he had an earnest fluency and a painstaking command of his subect. He specialised on social issues - not always the most favoured topics with Tories - and soon won recognition. Looking back on this period he later commented "my main motivation was then as it has been since, the escape of a society and individuals from poverty". His generally liberal instincts also led him to oppose - subvertly - the Suez expedition in 1957.
Notwithstanding this veiled dissent he held junior and middle rank ministerial office at the turn of the 1960s involving the Housing Ministry and the Board of Trade. His high-flying potential was confirmed in July 1962 when he was a beneficiary of Macmillan's "night of the long knives", entering the cabinet as minister for housing and local government and minister for Welsh affairs whilst in his mid-forties.
Joseph was an active - even interventionist - minister. He eschewed free market options such as rent deregulation and used state resources to launch a major building programme including tower blocks estates. When the Conservatives were defeated in October 1964 there was under construction a record number of 421,000 homes. With charming self-effacement Joseph subsequently confessed that his policies had been modish and misguided. The tower blocks were a planner's dream but a tenant's disaster.
Joseph, possibly, was more aware of these failures than his political contemporaries. He certainly continued to enjoy a growing reputation and prospered during the opposition years of 1964-70. His interests expanded to cover economic and financial affairs whilst maintaining his commitment to social issues.
In the light of subsequent events it is significant that he did not get embroiled in the arguments over incomes policy which bedevilled the Conservative party at this time, but welcomed the Selsdon Park declaration with its commitment to trade union reform, lower direct taxation, and greater competition.
The Conservative 1970 general election victory resulted in Joseph being appointed secretary of state for health and social services. It was a post he held throughout the parliament. Joseph had an unwieldy, high-spending department. A correspondent from the Times judged that "no solution was found to the chronic financial problems of the NHS and in the reorganisation of the service excessive deference was paid to the susceptibilities of doctors".
This was not an over-harsh judgment and was endorsed later by Joseph who confessed that his record as a public spender sat ill with his subsequent exhortations for retrenchment. Joseph's outspoken comments in 1974-75 were prompted by genuine concern over the state of Britain. He had been made shadow home secretary by Edward Heath after the election defeat, but chose to speak largely on economic issues.
With Margaret Thatcher he established a free enterprise think-tank, the Centre for Policy Studies. The venture had the grudging acquiescence of Edward Heath, and became a focal point for such devoted evangelists of free enterprise as Alfred Sherman, Alan Walters and Peter Bauer.
Joseph was aided by two powerful factors in his determination to restate the principles of social market economy and re-direct Conservative policy. First there was a deep fear of inflation, partly related to the huge increase in OPEC oil prices, which led to a revival in the esteemed virtues of disciplined budgets.
Secondly there was a void in the Conservative party. The natural exponent of liberal economics would have been Enoch Powell, but he had stood down in the 1974 February general election, and had returned to the Commons as an Ulster Unionist in the following October. Joseph's campaign to educate his party included a notable speech at Preston which virtually re-wrote policy. Some years later Joseph reflected upon this episode and concluded "My first decades as an MP should really have been under the flag, had there been such a party, of well-intentioned statism".
Such soul-searching is not the stuff of politics. Even so these were the golden years of Joseph's career. Having stepped aside from the leadership contest he was able to promote the success of Margaret Thatcher. She rewarded him by making him the policy supremo of her shadow cabinet. He gave intellectual ballast to her vigorous intuitive judgments. It was a formidable partnership that equipped the Conservative party to produce a radical programme after the 1979 victory. In some ways Keith Joseph seemed an unlikely character to have been so successful a pioneer in ideas. He never dominated the Commons and he was not particularly incisive in committee. Probably he was happiest at the Centre for Policy Studies exchanging his challenging ideas with academics.
After the general election victory of 1979 Margaret Thatcher made Keith Joseph the secretary of state for industry. It was something of an anti-climax as the department was not a major Whitehall fiefdom. Joseph was obliged to offer financial lifelines to British Shipbuilders, British Rail and British Leyland. It was easy to caricature this as apostasy but in due course shipbuilding and the motor industry passed to the private sector. Joseph confronted his critics by resisting the steel strikers and eventually outfacing them. Keith Joseph welcomed the move to Education in 1981. He had always wanted the office and relished the challenge which was more intangible and philosophic than the problems of industry. The academic and teaching professions accepted his appointment warily.
They need not have been unduly alarmed. Once again Keith Joseph 's powerful rhetoric was matched by more circumspect action. Whilst in office he saw the merging of the O-level and CSE exams. It was a start towards his aim of a national curriculum and of testing, but he moved warily leaving his successor to build upon his achievement. It was characteristic of his integrity and political naivete that he sought a modest expansion in his science budget by seeking a parental charge for university tuition fees, thus requiring no net increase in public spending. The Tory middle classes were outraged and Joseph was obliged to abandon his plan. Ironically this relatively minor issue left a more indelible mark than Joseph's pioneering work to promote structured teaching in schools and university reform.
In 1986 he left the government and received a life peerage. He was a reasonably frequent attender in the House of Lords and used it as a platform for arguing the social market economy cause. He also became increasingly wary of developments in the European Community. He was alert to the danger that Brussels would promote centralisation rather than more open trade. As ever he argued with an intensity balanced by acknowledged self doubt and with great courtesy to his opponents.
He twice married firstly to Hellen Guggenheimer in 1951 by whom he had a son and three daughters. They were divorced in 1978 and thereafter he married Yolanda Sheriff.
Keith Sinjohn Joseph, Baron Joseph of Portsoken born January 17 1918, died December 10 1994
John Biffen : Keith Joseph
Monday 12 December 1994
Power behind the throne
There was a fleeting moment when it seemed possible that
Keith Joseph, who has died aged 76, would become leader of the Conservative
party. The double general election defeats in 1974 had left the Tories
dispirited and directionless. Throughout that year and early in 1975 Joseph
made a number of major speeches on the economic principles which should guide
the party. They were a vigorous restatement of classical economic liberalism,
borrowing from the contemporary academic teachings of Frederick von Hayek and Chicago's
Professor Milton Friedman. It was - in contemporary jargon - the message of
monetarism.Joseph certainly demonstrated maladroit judgment when he spoke at Birmingham on the subject of the cycle of social deprivation. The cycle was attributed to a combination of the young and poor in a climate of sexual freedom perpetuating a deprived class with little effective hope of self-improvement.
The observation was neither novel or offensive but the choice of such phrases as "the balance of our human stock is threatened" invited misrepresentation. The uproar that followed had Joseph protesting that he was misunderstood and apologising and redefining what he had intended to say. It is no exaggeration to say that his tactlessness and subsequent confusion lost him any chance of replacing Edward Heath as leader.
It is also true that, at heart, he did not have the spine for leadership. The Edgbaston speech merely revealed that underlying reality. Joseph quickly withdrew from a contest he had not truly entered, and later observed "I hadn't the political antennae, the political flair". It was a characteristically honest observation, but there were other shortcomings. He was too kind to have the butcher instincts required of a party leader and whilst intellectually razor sharp, he was indecisive and given to public agonising.
The Conservative party, happily, was spared the leadership of Joseph but was amply compensated by his skills and dedication as the intellectual leader during the opposition years 1975-79. Together with the party leader Margaret Thatcher and William Whitelaw he formed an effective troika of Tory leadership. The Conservatives won a striking general election victory in 1979 and the subsequent years in government demonstrated how well prepared they had been for office. Keith Joseph was given overall responsibility for policy in 1975, and with a relatively modest band of close supporters directed the Conservative party towards the German-style social market philosophy. It was this achievement which makes his career indispensable in the understanding of "the Thatcher years "and which places Joseph among near-leaders alongside Butler, Oliver Stanley and Austen Chamberlain.
Keith Joseph was born into an Ashkenazi Jewish family. He remained devoted to the Jewish faith throughout his life. His father was a self-made businessman, founding the construction company of Bovis, and becoming Lord Mayor of London. The baronetcy, then customary for a Lord Mayor, was inherited by Keith Joseph. Time at Harrow and Magdalen College, Oxford, was dominated by cricket.
Devotion to cricket did not prevent Joseph getting a first in law. During the second world war Joseph, as a Captain in the Royal Artillery, fought in Italy where he was wounded and mentioned in despatches. After the war Joseph took up his fellowship at All Souls where he commenced a thesis on political, racial and religious tolerance. He never completed this work, preferring to join the family business.
Joseph soon showed an interest in public affairs, being elected to the common council of the City of London Corporation and to the finance and general purposes committee of the National Council of Social Services. He contested the parliamentary constituency of Barons Court in the 1955 general election and was narrowly beaten. Shortly afterwards he entered the Commons in the Leeds North by election. The constituency was faithful to him throughout his parliamentary career.
Although never a dominant speaker he had an earnest fluency and a painstaking command of his subect. He specialised on social issues - not always the most favoured topics with Tories - and soon won recognition. Looking back on this period he later commented "my main motivation was then as it has been since, the escape of a society and individuals from poverty". His generally liberal instincts also led him to oppose - subvertly - the Suez expedition in 1957.
Notwithstanding this veiled dissent he held junior and middle rank ministerial office at the turn of the 1960s involving the Housing Ministry and the Board of Trade. His high-flying potential was confirmed in July 1962 when he was a beneficiary of Macmillan's "night of the long knives", entering the cabinet as minister for housing and local government and minister for Welsh affairs whilst in his mid-forties.
Joseph was an active - even interventionist - minister. He eschewed free market options such as rent deregulation and used state resources to launch a major building programme including tower blocks estates. When the Conservatives were defeated in October 1964 there was under construction a record number of 421,000 homes. With charming self-effacement Joseph subsequently confessed that his policies had been modish and misguided. The tower blocks were a planner's dream but a tenant's disaster.
Joseph, possibly, was more aware of these failures than his political contemporaries. He certainly continued to enjoy a growing reputation and prospered during the opposition years of 1964-70. His interests expanded to cover economic and financial affairs whilst maintaining his commitment to social issues.
In the light of subsequent events it is significant that he did not get embroiled in the arguments over incomes policy which bedevilled the Conservative party at this time, but welcomed the Selsdon Park declaration with its commitment to trade union reform, lower direct taxation, and greater competition.
The Conservative 1970 general election victory resulted in Joseph being appointed secretary of state for health and social services. It was a post he held throughout the parliament. Joseph had an unwieldy, high-spending department. A correspondent from the Times judged that "no solution was found to the chronic financial problems of the NHS and in the reorganisation of the service excessive deference was paid to the susceptibilities of doctors".
This was not an over-harsh judgment and was endorsed later by Joseph who confessed that his record as a public spender sat ill with his subsequent exhortations for retrenchment. Joseph's outspoken comments in 1974-75 were prompted by genuine concern over the state of Britain. He had been made shadow home secretary by Edward Heath after the election defeat, but chose to speak largely on economic issues.
With Margaret Thatcher he established a free enterprise think-tank, the Centre for Policy Studies. The venture had the grudging acquiescence of Edward Heath, and became a focal point for such devoted evangelists of free enterprise as Alfred Sherman, Alan Walters and Peter Bauer.
Joseph was aided by two powerful factors in his determination to restate the principles of social market economy and re-direct Conservative policy. First there was a deep fear of inflation, partly related to the huge increase in OPEC oil prices, which led to a revival in the esteemed virtues of disciplined budgets.
Secondly there was a void in the Conservative party. The natural exponent of liberal economics would have been Enoch Powell, but he had stood down in the 1974 February general election, and had returned to the Commons as an Ulster Unionist in the following October. Joseph's campaign to educate his party included a notable speech at Preston which virtually re-wrote policy. Some years later Joseph reflected upon this episode and concluded "My first decades as an MP should really have been under the flag, had there been such a party, of well-intentioned statism".
Such soul-searching is not the stuff of politics. Even so these were the golden years of Joseph's career. Having stepped aside from the leadership contest he was able to promote the success of Margaret Thatcher. She rewarded him by making him the policy supremo of her shadow cabinet. He gave intellectual ballast to her vigorous intuitive judgments. It was a formidable partnership that equipped the Conservative party to produce a radical programme after the 1979 victory. In some ways Keith Joseph seemed an unlikely character to have been so successful a pioneer in ideas. He never dominated the Commons and he was not particularly incisive in committee. Probably he was happiest at the Centre for Policy Studies exchanging his challenging ideas with academics.
After the general election victory of 1979 Margaret Thatcher made Keith Joseph the secretary of state for industry. It was something of an anti-climax as the department was not a major Whitehall fiefdom. Joseph was obliged to offer financial lifelines to British Shipbuilders, British Rail and British Leyland. It was easy to caricature this as apostasy but in due course shipbuilding and the motor industry passed to the private sector. Joseph confronted his critics by resisting the steel strikers and eventually outfacing them. Keith Joseph welcomed the move to Education in 1981. He had always wanted the office and relished the challenge which was more intangible and philosophic than the problems of industry. The academic and teaching professions accepted his appointment warily.
They need not have been unduly alarmed. Once again Keith Joseph 's powerful rhetoric was matched by more circumspect action. Whilst in office he saw the merging of the O-level and CSE exams. It was a start towards his aim of a national curriculum and of testing, but he moved warily leaving his successor to build upon his achievement. It was characteristic of his integrity and political naivete that he sought a modest expansion in his science budget by seeking a parental charge for university tuition fees, thus requiring no net increase in public spending. The Tory middle classes were outraged and Joseph was obliged to abandon his plan. Ironically this relatively minor issue left a more indelible mark than Joseph's pioneering work to promote structured teaching in schools and university reform.
In 1986 he left the government and received a life peerage. He was a reasonably frequent attender in the House of Lords and used it as a platform for arguing the social market economy cause. He also became increasingly wary of developments in the European Community. He was alert to the danger that Brussels would promote centralisation rather than more open trade. As ever he argued with an intensity balanced by acknowledged self doubt and with great courtesy to his opponents.
He twice married firstly to Hellen Guggenheimer in 1951 by whom he had a son and three daughters. They were divorced in 1978 and thereafter he married Yolanda Sheriff.
Keith Sinjohn Joseph, Baron Joseph of Portsoken born January 17 1918, died December 10 1994
