The bloodiest of the uprisings of the Arab spring is
set to get bloodier still
International efforts to end the fighting in
Syria are as logjammed as the
conflict itself.
Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League special envoy, Sergei Lavrov,
the Russian foreign minister, and Zhang Ming, the Chinese assistant foreign
minister, will all be in the region today battling over competing formulas for
peace talks, which the opposition Syrian National Council have a priori
rejected. An informal meeting of EU foreign ministers on Friday attempted to
draw comfort from a clutch of Syrian defections – two army generals, a colonel
and two sergeants followed the example of a senior oil ministry official. Syria's
economy is plunging and businessmen are taking large losses. The
defections could be the
start of a flood, but as things stand it would be safer to
assume that the regime is intact, and after pulverising the Homs
district of Baba Amr, the army will now switch its attentions to Idlib.
The continuing army offensive and the reluctance of the regime to permit
unhindered humanitarian
access to the worst-hit areas begs the most important
question: even if a UN resolution could be devised to bridge the gap between
the US, France and Britain on one side and Russia and China on the other – on
key issues such as the responsibility for violence, promoting a political
transition, and ending impunity from prosecution – what real motive would Assad
have to negotiate? He would have plenty of interest in playing for time, as he
has done on many occasions before, particularly with Turkey.
But unless his situation deteriorates markedly, as it may yet do so with more
defections, the bloodiest of the uprisings of the Arab spring is set to get
bloodier still.
Rejecting talks before Annan even hits the ground in Damascus,
the SNC is understandably relectant to engage with Assad. Too much innocent
blood has flowed since this started a year ago, and Assad has lost control both
of the economy and society. But the SNC has no strategy, other than calling for
a foreign intervention which will never come. Still less does it have a
political programme. If the regime does not crumble and the army continues its
bombardment of towns and cities under rebel control, the SNC has to develop a
political plan – what it wants, and how it is going to
achieve it – even if it is negotiated through proxies. At
the moment they are playing exclusively to the regime's strengths, which are
all military.
Everyone involved with Syria
faces a simple choice: either it becomes an international battleground, a proxy
war of competing regional powers, and a civil war which becomes more sectarian
as time goes on; or a ceasefire will have to be obtained through negotiation.
The latter option indeed carries the risk of cementing the Assad regime in
place, and is deeply obnoxious to large sections of the population who are in
no mood to reconcile themselves to people who have behaved with such brutality.
But it may yet turn out to be the best of a series of bad options. If the
regime does not collapse under its own weight, it may be the only one facing
the opposition. That ceasefire will only be obtained by Syria's
neighbours and regional powers – Turkey,
Iran, Egypt
and the Arab League.
They themselves are deeply divided. Saudi
Arabia is playing a double game and giving
its people an openly contradictory message. In politically scripted sermons at
evening prayers, the Saudis are simultaneously posing as the protectors of the
Sunnis against a minority Shia regime; and they are telling their people that Syria
is what happens when people turn on their rulers. The Saudis are both stoking
the rebellion in Syria
and attempting to erect a firewall against a similar thing happening at home.
The language of these sermons is unashamedly sectarian, depicting Sunnis as
victims of Shias and their sponsor Iran.
They are the clearest
sign yet of the abyss down which Syria
is staring.
Inside northern Syria -
in pictures
The award-winning Associated Press photojournalist
Rodrigo Abd captures daily life in rebel-held areas in the north of Syria
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| The funeral in Idlib of Abdulaziz Abu Ahmed Khrer, who was killed by a Syrian army sniper |
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| Free Syrian Army supporters chant anti-government slogans under snowfall in Idlib |
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| Free Syrian Army fighters in Idlib gather after swearing to the Qur'an to fight |
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| A woman stands next to graffiti during a demonstration in Idlib against the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad |
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| A woman chants anti-government slogans during a protest in northern Syria |
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| Mohammed prays as Tareq prepares to leave their house, Kafar Taharim |
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| Children attend a demonstration against Bashar al-Assad's regime in Kafar Taharim |
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| A portrait of Assad on a television inside the home of supporters of the Free Syrian army near Idlib |
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| Children carry firewood on horseback in Kafar Taharim |
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| A woman leads a group of children along a street in Kafar Taharim |
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| A man has dinner as supporters of the Free Syrian army pray near Idlib |
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| A boy cuts wood in Kafar Taharim |
