Such
disparities are unnecessary. Indeed, the proliferation of agricultural
technology – from more efficient machinery to higher-yielding or more
robust crop varieties – has the potential to narrow the productivity gap
considerably, even if differences between climates and producers
remain.
For example, a new variety of African upland rice, Nerica,
triples annual yields. Likewise, over the last four decades, improved
breeding methods, higher-quality feed, and better veterinary care have
more than doubled average milk production worldwide. Nevertheless,
regional discrepancies remain massive: cows in the Netherlands can
produce roughly 9,000 liters of milk annually, while Zebu cattle in the
tropics produce only about 300 liters.
The
need to increase agricultural output becomes more urgent every day. The
global population is set to reach nine billion by 2050, while people in
the developing world – where nearly all of the population growth will
occur – are seeking more varied diets. By 2030, demand for animal
products will double, with overall food demand rising by 40%.
Science
has much to contribute to global food security. While genetic
modification is not essential to feed the world, it does provide
significant advantages, enabling scientists to introduce or enhance
traits – virus resistance in cassava, for example, or improved
digestibility of feed – that cannot be realized with conventional
breeding.
To
be sure, raising yields is not the same as feeding the world. If a vast
swath of the population cannot afford the food that is produced, the
size of the yield is irrelevant. While nearly one billion people have
been lifted out of poverty (defined by the World Bank as an income of
less than $1.25 per day, in purchasing-power-parity terms) in the last
20 years, such progress will prove more difficult for the next billion.
Given
this, policymakers should redouble their efforts to reduce poverty by
supporting sustainable and inclusive economic growth. They should commit
to advancing sound agricultural management, maintaining
well-functioning markets, and increasing investment in agriculture. At
the same time, these objectives, while pressing, should not obscure the
need to focus on yields – increases in which have accounted for
three-quarters of food-production growth in recent decades.
Fortunately,
the most significant potential limitations – land, water, and nutrients
– seem unlikely to constrain global output excessively in the
foreseeable future. But, while none is in short supply globally, local
shortages may occur.
Although crop land per capita
will continue to decline, more arable land is available worldwide than
previously thought. The example of the use of the Brazilian cerrado,
once considered useless, augurs well for the African savannas.
Underused land reserves also exist elsewhere in South America, Central
Asia, and Eastern Europe.
A
more immediate challenge is ensuring that crops receive sufficient
water, which requires building and maintaining efficient irrigation
systems to stabilize yields and enable farmers to harvest an additional
crop each year. As it stands, only 4% of arable land in Sub-Saharan Africa is irrigated, compared to 38% in Asia.
While the Middle East will face serious water shortages, Africa, where
most population growth is set to occur, contains numerous unexploited
water sources.
Fertilizer
use has become significantly more efficient in recent years, a trend
that will continue. Reserves of minerals like phosphate will remain
plentiful in the next decades, and nitrogen is not limited. Technology
to extract nutrients from waste already exists, reducing dependency on
mining. Moreover, pigs and poultry are ideal food-waste processors, and
their effluents can serve again as nutrient and energy sources, turning
future food chains into interconnected production cycles.
Perhaps
the most pressing constraint on agricultural production is the
impending labor shortage, as rural young people, who traditionally
comprise the agricultural labor force, flock to cities. With small
farmers unable to provide sufficient surpluses, agricultural production
will become increasingly consolidated and mechanized, raising
fossil-fuel consumption, which will have to be offset by the
introduction of more efficient technologies.
Of
course, future food production is subject to significant uncertainty.
Population growth may not slow down as rapidly as expected.
Protectionism threatens open markets and GDP growth. And price
volatility, whether triggered by drought or short-sighted national
policies, could deter investments in agriculture and decrease the poor’s
purchasing power.
Whether
climate change will be a source of yield uncertainty in the coming
decades remains unclear as well. Although precipitation may be affected,
higher temperatures would enable agricultural production in colder
regions, and CO2 is known to bolster plant growth, even in dry areas.
In
addition, while food hygiene, traceability, and labeling are improving,
any amount of negligence when it comes to food safety could have
far-reaching consequences in the complex and interconnected global food
chain. Rising demand for animal products highlights microbiological
risks, with animal-welfare measures sometimes creating new hazards. For
example, open pens for poultry may increase the spread of communicable
diseases like avian influenza.
Despite
such risks, the outlook for future food security is promising. Our food
is safer and our diets are more diverse than ever before; production
methods are becoming increasingly sustainable, clean, and efficient; and
we are constantly becoming better at protecting biodiversity.
Yet
many in Europe and the United States – which have benefited most from
agricultural advances – are mistrustful of this progress, viewing
scientific advancement and free trade as a dangerous combination. To the
extent that this perception impedes progress, it is the real threat to
global food security.
She is a professor at the University of Amsterdam, was Director of
Research and Assistant Director General for Agriculture at the United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
