India has been so deeply mired in political paralysis that the Nobel laureate economist Amartya Sen recently said that the country has “fallen from being the second best to the second worst” South Asian country, and that it is currently “no match for China” on social indicators. This is a damning comment on a country that held such promise just a short time ago.
In early January, the American social critic James Howard Kunstler described India as “a nation with one foot in the modern age and the other in a colorful hallucinatory dreamtime.” Kunstler’s view is harsh, but perhaps prophetic: India’s “climate-change-related problems are doing heavy damage to the food supply. Their groundwater is almost gone. The troubles of the wobbling global economy will take a lot of pep out of their burgeoning tech and manufacturing sectors.”
Indeed, suddenly, India’s economy has begun spinning out of control. Last year, the country’s GDP growth slowed, manufacturing plummeted, and inflation and corruption grew uncontrollably. Elected and unelected government officials alike, including cabinet ministers, members of parliament, and civil servants, were implicated in corruption scandals. The situation triggered recollections of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s fraudulent call for a state of emergency in 1975, when she ruled by decree for 21 months, suspending elections and civil liberties.
The population’s outraged response to these events was visceral, and previously unknown figures such as the anti-corruption activist Anna Hazare rallied thousands of Indians in meetings across the country to protest against government corruption. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government floundered, the opposition vainly sought to gain the upper hand.
But, to ordinary Indians, this political gamesmanship appeared to be merely a farce – the blind pretending to lead the unsighted. Perhaps for the first time ever, India’s government failed to enact even a single piece of legislation, much less undertake any economic reforms, restore price stability, or address widespread civil disorder.
As the Indian business analyst Virendra Parekh has observed: “The second fastest-growing economy in the world now has the unenviable distinction of having the fastest falling financial markets in Asia.” Moreover, “the fortunes of the rupee are….tightly linked with the euro, which is in the throes of an existential crisis...” This has resulted in another, albeit unintended, consequence: “Unscrupulous politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen, who have stashed their illicit wealth abroad, are bringing some of it back,” passing off the money as export earnings. Where corruption has been absent, incompetence has replaced it.
Furthermore, weaknesses in agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and governance have all contributed to India’s current crisis. For example, approximately a quarter-million Indian farmers have allegedly committed suicide over the last 16 years, despite unprecedented economic growth.
This statistic begs the question of why India continues to import foods and oils that could be produced domestically. Solutions offered by organizations such as the US-India Business Council or USAID do not address the problem’s roots, and the crisis will most likely continue in 2012. It is imperative that India invest in its agriculture, not only for economic reasons, but also because it is central to the country’s culture.
Another concern is nuclear power. In 2008, the United States and India agreed to a civil nuclear deal that would allow India to expand its nuclear-power capability. In 2010, India’s parliament passed the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill, a precondition for activating that agreement. But, following Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011, safety concerns surrounding nuclear power are large and mounting.
Local farmers, fishermen, and environmentalists have spent months protesting a planned six-reactor nuclear-power complex on the plains of Jaitapur, south of Mumbai. In April, the protests turned violent, leaving one man dead and dozens injured. India will certainly see more anti-nuclear clashes in 2012.
At the heart of India’s current malaise is a paradox: rapid growth in real income has not been matched by genuine advances in living standards. If the country’s fundamental problems are to be addressed, India needs a government with the determination, integrity, and intelligence to meet the complex demands of modern governance in the twenty-first century.
Jaswant Singh, a former Indian finance minister, foreign
minister, and defense minister, is the author of Jinnah: India
– Partition – Independence.
Jaswant Singh: 在蕭條之年的印度生活
新德裡—2012年將是印度的重生之年還是又一個可怕之年？沒有哪個國家可以在一帆風順之間一直進步，但對於印度來說，已經無法承受又一個如2011年般在政治和經濟上都如此不堪的年頭了。印度人恨不得徹底忘卻過去的一年。
在政治上，印度可謂泥足深陷，以至於諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者阿馬提亞·森最近聲稱，這個國家在南亞“從第二墮落到了倒數第二”，在社會指標方面“無法與中國相提並論”。對於一個不久前才信誓旦旦的國家來說，這樣的評語不啻當頭一盆冷水。
1月初，美國社會批評家霍華德·昆斯勒（Howard Kunstler）將印度描述為“一隻腳踏進了現代世界，另一隻腳還在多彩的幻想世界中徜徉的國家”。昆斯勒的觀點可謂犀利，卻頗有些預言的意味：印度的“氣候變化相關問題正在嚴重影響食品供給。地下水幾乎已經消耗殆盡。步履蹣跚、麻煩纏身的全球降級將讓印度生機勃發的技術和制造部門大量失血。”
事實上，幾乎在一夜之間，印度經濟開始失控了。去年，印度GDP增長率出現了下降，制造業出現了暴跌，通脹和腐敗以不可控制之勢蔓延。當選政府官僚，非當選官僚也好，不關你是內閣部長、議會成員還是普通公務員，都擺脫不了腐敗丑聞的干系。去年的情況讓人想起了1975年總理英迪拉·甘地宣布進入緊急狀態的戲言。當時她得到了21個月的授權，中止了選舉和公民自由。
人民對這些事件爆發了發自肺腑的憤怒，先前默默無聞的反復活動家，如阿納·哈扎爾（Anna Hazare）發動了數以千計的印度人在全國開展機會運動，向政府腐敗示威。辛格政府對此不知所措，而反對派隻知道徒勞地乘機撈取政治地盤。
但對普通印度人來說，這樣的政治小把戲隻不過是鬧劇，好比是盲人在引導瞎子。或許這是印度政府在歷史上第一次沒能出台哪怕一項立法，更不用說實施任何經濟改革、重塑價格穩定以及解決廣泛蔓延的公共秩序問題了。
正如印度商業分析家維綸德拉·帕雷科（Virendra Parekh）所觀察到的：“世界上增長第二快的國家現在一點都不值得羨慕，因為他們的金融市場在亞洲是墮落最快的。”此外，“盧比緊緊地與歐元挂鉤，因此隻能任由當前危機宰割……”而這在無意間導致了另一個結果：“不知羞恥的政客、官僚和商人從前不法財富轉移到國外，現在又移回了一部分，”打著出口利潤的名號把錢輸回印度。如果哪個地方沒有腐敗，那麼替代它的一定是無能。
此外，農業、能源、基礎設施和治理方面的疲軟也是印度當前危機的引發原因。比如，過去16年間，據說大約有25萬印度農民自殺身亡，盡管在此期間印度取得了前所未有的經濟增長。
這個數字引出了一個問題：為何印度要繼續進口可以在國內生產的食品和原油。美印商業委員會（US-India
Business Council）和美國國際開發署（USAID）等組織給出的解決方案不能根治問題，危機很可能會在2012年繼續發酵。印度需要投資於農業，這不僅是經濟上的需要，也是印度文化的核心問題。
另一個擔憂是核電。2008年，美國和印度簽署了一項民用核協議，印度得以擴展其核電產能。2010年，印度議會通過了《核傷害民事責任法案》，作為激活這一協議的先決條件。但是，2011年3月日本福島核災難爆發后，圍繞核電安全的擔憂再次崛起。
當地農民、漁民和環保主義者連續幾個月在孟買以南的杰普塔平原上集會示威，反對在那裡建造有六個反應堆的核電廠。4月，示威活動演變成暴力運動，造成一人喪身、多人受傷。顯然，2012年，印度還會有更多的反核沖突。
印度當前亂象和核心是一個悖論：真實收入的快速增長並沒有帶來生活水平的真實提高。如果印度想要解決基本問題，那麼政府就應該拿出決心、誠意和機智來滿足21世紀現代治理的復雜要求。
Jaswant
Singh是前印度財政部長、外交部長和國防部長，著有《真納：印度—分裂—獨立》。