Efforts to rescue the world economy in 2012 will be afflicted
by a perilous political paradox. The more that international co-operation is
needed, the harder it will be to achieve.
The year begins with the world still overshadowed by the threat of the biggest economic crisis since 1945. But as the economic position deteriorates, the actions demanded of national leaders become ever more drastic and harder to sell at home: take part in big bail-outs of indigent nations, subsidise wildly unpopular bankers, work patiently with countries that large parts of your own population believe are bankrupt or dishonest. In 2012, the world’s most important leaders are likely to be asked to do all of the above – and will find it ever harder to deliver. The conditions of recession, instability and panic that demand international co-operation also make voters angrier and less generous.
The political pressures produced by an international economic crisis have prevented the European Union – or a larger world community – from dealing effectively with Europe’s debt problems. Over the year, the problem is likely to worsen because so many of the most important countries face elections or changes in leadership that will make it very hard for them to devote much energy to diplomacy. There are presidential elections in the US, France and Russia – and China’s top leadership will also be reshuffled towards the end of the year.
The biggest demands, however, will be made of a country that is not scheduled to undergo elections. This year, as in 2011, the world will look to Germany to provide the money and intellectual leadership to pull the eurozone back from the brink.
Germany, however, is extremely reluctant to open its cheque book once again. Instead it is pouring its energy into securing a new European treaty that will place draconian limits on deficits – a policy that is irrelevant to the debt crisis in the short term and liable to be counterproductive in the long term. Germany’s behaviour is explicable only when understood in the context of domestic politics. The policies of chancellor Angela Merkel are dictated by a popular desire that Germany should fund no further bail-outs in Europe and instead export its own “stability culture”.
Ms Merkel is sometimes lambasted by foreign leaders for allowing domestic political constraints to dictate her approach to the crisis. But look around the world, and everybody else is doing the same. Germany’s main partner in Europe over the next few months will be France – a country that will be preoccupied by its presidential election. Nicolas Sarkozy will be trying to push any further twist in the crisis beyond the final polling date of May 6, while guarding his flank against accusations from the left and the far right that he has gone too far in ceding sovereignty to an impatient Germany.
And what of the US? Bill Clinton once boasted that America was the “indispensable nation”. But when it comes to the eurozone’s agonies, the US would be more than happy to be dispensed with. There is no money for a modern Marshall plan for Europe. All talk of foreign aid will be anathema during an election year. President Barack Obama’s dearest wish for 2012 is that the Europeans get their act together and avoid plunging the world into a recession before Americans vote in November.
With America gazing inward, some will look to China for money and leadership. This began visibly to happen in 2011, when European officials ended an EU summit by jetting straight off to Beijing, in a humiliatingly unsuccessful effort to drum up Chinese interest in buying more European debt.
But the leadership of China’s
Communist party will also spend much of the year jostling for position. While
the identities of the new president and prime minister are widely assumed to be
known – with Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang slated respectively for those positions
– the slots just below the top two are up for grabs. China’s
urge to concentrate on domestic affairs will be accentuated by a growing
nervousness about political and economic instability at home.
The leadership was clearly alarmed by the Arab spring. The recent demonstrations in Moscow against a stage-managed election will also have caused discomfort in Beijing. There are, meanwhile, fears of inflation, a house price crash and growing social unrest in China’s manufacturing heartlands. That might mean that Beijing’s leadership transition is more lively and contested than many expect. But it will also ensure China has little energy to devote to elaborate international co-operation.
In 2012, we can look to world politics for the entertainment value that elections provide – but not for solutions to global problems.
Gideon Rachman: 妨礙全球復蘇的悖論
2012年，拯救世界經濟的努力將受到一個危險政治悖論的拖累。你會發現，越是需要國際合作，國際合作越就難達成。
2012年伊始，世界仍籠罩在1945年以來最嚴重經濟危機的陰影之下。不斷惡化的經濟形勢，要求各國領導人採取更加激進的行動——包括參與對貧困國家的大規模紓困計劃，補貼極其不受民眾歡迎的銀行家，耐心地與那些在本國民眾看來已經破產或毫無誠信的國家合作——但他們在國內為這些行動爭取到支持的難度也越來越大。2012年，世界形勢很可能要求全球最重要的領導人在上述三方面都採取行動，但他們會發現，要做到這一點比以往更加困難。應對衰退、動蕩和恐慌的形勢需要展開國際合作，但這種形勢也讓選民們變得更加憤怒、且不再那麼慷慨。
國際經濟危機引發的政治壓力，使得歐盟(EU)乃至整個國際社會無法有效地應對歐債問題。今年，這個問題很可能變得更加嚴重。其原因是，世界上許多最重要的國家將迎來選舉或領導層換屆，很難在外交方面投入太多精力。美國、法國和俄羅斯將進行總統選舉，中國最高領導層也將在接近年底時進行換屆。
不過，拯救世界經濟的最大重擔將落在一個今年沒有選舉安排的國家身上。與2011年一樣，世界今年也將指望德國提供資金和思想上的領導，以把歐元區從懸崖邊緣拉回來。
但是，德國很不情願再次打開支票簿。相反，德國正把精力傾注到敲定一項對赤字施加嚴苛限制的歐盟新條約上——短期來看，這種政策對於解決債務危機毫無幫助﹔長期來看，它還可能產生事與願違的后果。隻有站在國內政治的角度上，才能理解德國的這一行為。德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)的政策是由德國民眾的一個意願決定的——這些民眾認為，德國不應再為新一輪歐洲紓困行動掏腰包，而應輸出自己的“穩定性文化”。
外國領導人有時抨擊默克爾，稱她任由國內政治因素左右其應對危機之策。但環顧全球，其它國家領導人的做法與默克爾別無二致。未來幾個月，德國在歐洲的主要合作伙伴將是法國，而法國又將忙於本國的總統選舉。尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)將努力避免這場危機在5月6日的最終投票日之前出現新的波折，以防左翼勢力和極右翼勢力指控他向失去耐心的德國讓渡過多主權。
美國的情況又是怎樣？比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)曾吹噓美國是“責無旁貸的國家”。但在歐元區遭遇痛苦之際，美國恐怕很樂於置身事外。美國沒有財力再針對歐洲推出現代版的“馬歇爾計劃”。在選舉年，所有關於對外援助的言論都會招人厭惡。2012年，巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統最熱切的願望就是，歐洲人能在11月份美國大選之前攜手採取行動，避免將世界拖入衰退泥潭。
隨著美國將視線轉向國內，有些人將尋求讓中國提供資金並承擔領導角色。我們在2011年已經開始清楚地看到了這一點——歐洲官員在歐盟峰會結束后便直飛北京，懇請中國購買更多歐洲債務，丟人的是，此舉以失敗告終。
但在今年，中共領導層也將把大量時間花在“爭奪席位”上。盡管外界普遍認定習近平和李克強將分別出任下屆國家主席和政府總理，但這兩個最高職位之下的空位仍有待爭奪。出於對國內政治經濟形勢不穩的日益擔憂，中國會進一步把精力集中在國內事務上。
很顯然，“阿拉伯之春”引起了中國領導人的警覺。近來莫斯科街頭上演的、旨在抗議有人幕后操縱選舉的示威活動，恐怕也已引起中國政府的不安。與此同時，令中國政府擔心的還有通貨膨脹、房價崩盤和制造業中心日益增多的社會動蕩。這可能意味著，中國領導層的換屆過程會比許多人預想的更為火爆、競爭程度也更大。但是，這同時也會使中國無法在國際合作中投入多少精力。
2012年，世界政治的看點可能在於選舉為我們提供的娛樂價值，而不在於全球問題的解決之道。