MELBOURNE –
Albert Einstein once said that if he had just one hour to find a solution on
which his life depended, he would spend the first 55 minutes defining the
problem. Once he knew the right question to ask, he could solve the problem in
less than five minutes.
Today, humanity faces such a life-threatening problem: How are we to provide
adequate nutrition and a decent quality of life to a global population that is
set to surpass nine billion by 2050, without irreparably damaging our planetary
life-support system? To find a solution, we must start by clarifying the
problem.Humans have fundamentally altered Earth’s ecosystems. By interfering with the carbon, nitrogen, water, and phosphorus cycles, human activity changes the atmosphere, oceans, waterways, forests, and ice sheets, and diminishes biodiversity. Indeed, the effects of human behavior on the planet’s ecosystems have become so significant in the last few centuries that many scientists now believe that the planet has entered a new geological epoch, dubbed the Anthropocene.
As the environmental consequences of human activity become increasingly apparent, so does humanity’s responsibility to mitigate them. Last year, at the United Nations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, world leaders agreed to create a set of universal Sustainable Development Goals, which would change the playing field for future economic policy to safeguard our life-support system. That’s easy to say. But where does one start?
For almost three decades, sustainable development has been defined as development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising future generations’ ability to meet their needs. Related policies have reflected the view that sustainable development rests on three equal pillars: the economy, society, and the environment.
But this view is no longer tenable. As the United States Global Change Research Program’s recently released draft report on climate change points out, some kinds of weather events have become more common, and more intense, in recent years. In 2012 alone, Arctic sea-ice dipped to a new low, as an area larger than the US melted; unprecedented heat waves struck Australia, and other areas; record floods hit China and Japan; and the United Kingdom had its wettest year on record. But global responses remain inadequate.
A new approach is needed. Rather than separate pillars of sustainable development, the economy must be seen as servicing society, which in turn thrives within a secure natural environment. Viewed this way, sustainable development should be redefined as “development that meets the needs of the present while safeguarding the Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” After all, a healthy, thriving planet is a prerequisite for healthy, prosperous lives.
The process of identifying the Sustainable Development Goals, which are intended to enter into force in 2015, has begun in earnest. Last week, representatives from 69 countries met at the UN in New York, and an expert group meets this week. The goals must have measurable, achievable objectives that extend beyond national policy; they must inspire regional and local administrations, businesses, civil society, and individuals everywhere to change their behavior. They should create goals for humanity that are grounded in shared values – and in relevant science.
This week, my colleagues and I published a report called Sustainable Development Goals for People and Planet, which outlines what is required. We identified six universal goals for sustainable development: lives and livelihoods, food security, water sustainability, clean energy, healthy ecosystems, and good governance. The next step is to define measurable targets, such as better lives for slum dwellers or reduced deforestation. Genuine progress in any of the six target areas will require a comprehensive approach, with policies that span the economic, social, and environmental domains.
For example, eradicating poverty entails the provision of food, water, energy, and access to gainful employment. But providing energy to all will require governments to discontinue subsidies for fossil fuels and unsustainable agriculture. And achieving food security is impossible without agricultural systems and practices that not only support farmers and produce enough food to meet people’s nutritional needs, but that also preserve natural resources by, for example, preventing soil erosion and relying on more efficient nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers.
The Millennium Development Goals, due to expire in 2015, succeeded because they marshaled international resources and funding to address a focused set of poverty-related issues. The Sustainable Development Goals must go a step further. Like Einstein’s thought experiment, many lives depend on it.
David Griggs is Director of the Monash Sustainability Institute (MSI) in Australia.
重新定義可持續發展
墨爾本—愛因斯坦曾說，如果他只有一個小時時間用來尋找賴以救命的解決方案，那麼他會把前55分鐘用來定義問題出在哪裡。只要知道正確的問題是什麼，他就可以在五分鐘內解決它。
如今，人類就面臨著這樣的生死攸關的問題：如何在不破壞地球生命支持系統的情況下為全世界人口提供足夠的營養和體面的生活？到2050年，全球人口將突破90億。為了尋找答案，我們必須從厘清問題開始。
人類從根本上改變了地球的生態系統。人類活動改變了碳、氮、水和磷的循環，從而改變了大氣、海洋、水路、森林、冰蓋，還減少了生物多樣性。事實上，人類行為對地球生態系統的影響在過去幾百年來是如此明顯，以至於許多科學家現在認為地球已經進入了新的地質年代——人類紀。
人類活動的環境後果正變得日益明顯，人類減輕這一後果的責任也變得日益重大。在去年的聯合國裡約熱內盧地球峰會上，全球領導人同意建立全球可持續發展目標，這將改變未來經濟政策，以捍衛我們的生命支持系統。說去來容易，但從何處著手？
近三十年來，可持續發展的定義一直是：既滿足當前需求，又兼顧子孫後代滿足他們的需求的能力的發展。相關政策表明，可持續發展有三大基石：經濟、社會和環境。
但這一思想已經站不住腳。美國全球變化研究計劃最新公佈的氣候變化報告草案指出，近幾年來，一些類型的天氣事件變得越來越常見、越來越猛烈。2012年，北冰洋海冰數量降至歷史新低，融化面積相當於美國國土﹔澳大利亞和其他地區遭遇前所未有熱浪襲擊﹔中國和日本遭遇創紀錄的洪水﹔英國遭遇有記錄以來最濕年份。但全球應對措施仍然不充分。
我們需要新方法。經濟不應該視為可持續發展的單獨基石，而應該用來服務社會，而社會職能在安全的自然環境中實現繁榮。從這個角度看，可持續發展應該定義為“滿足當前需求，同時保護當前和子孫後代所依賴的地球生命支持系統的發展”。畢竟，一個健康、興盛的地球是健康、繁榮的生活的先決條件。
定義可持續發展目標的過程已經熱切啟動，將於2015年完成。上周，69個國家的代表齊聚紐約聯合國，本周，一個專家組將舉行會議。可持續發展目標必須具有可測量、可實現的目標，並且超越國家政策層面﹔它們必須能夠啟發地區和地方政府、企業、公民社會和世界各地的個人改變他們的行為。它們應該形成基於共同價值、符合相關科學的人類目標。
本周，我的同事和我公佈了名為《為了人民和地球的可持續發展目標》的報告，該報告列出了所需要的內容。我們為可持續發展定義了六個全球目標：生活和生活方式、食品安全、水的可持續性、清潔能源、健康的生態系統和良好的治理。下一步是給出可測量目標，比如棚戶區生活改善和遏制森林砍伐。六大目標區域的任何真正進展都要求全面的安排，所涉政策包含經濟、社會和環境諸領域。
比如，減貧包括了供應食品、水、能源以及提供有酬工作等方面。但向所有人提供能源要求政府停止化石燃料和不可持續農業的補貼。而要達到食品安全目標，農業體系和行為就不但要支持農民、生產出足夠的食物滿足人們的營養需求，還必須通過（比如）防止水土流失、依靠高效氮肥和磷肥等方式保護自然資源。
2015年到期的千年發展目標是成功的，因為它們引導了國際資源和資金糾正了一系列與貧困相關的問題。可持續發展目標必須在此基礎上更進一步。就像愛因斯坦的思想實驗一樣，這是許多人性命攸關的事情。