MADRID – On
November 6, either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will emerge victorious after an
exhausting electoral race, setting the wheels in motion for the coming four
years. An ocean away, on November 8, more than 2,000 members of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) will gather in Beijing.
Approximately a week later, the members of the Politburo Standing Committee
will walk out in hierarchical order, preparing to take charge of a growing
country of 1.3 billion people.
The leaders of the world’s two largest economies are changing. So is the
world itself. The Middle East, in particular, is
experiencing a moment of intense transformation. While reconstruction – both
literal and figurative – is commencing in some parts of the region, countries
like Syria are
aflame. Others, such as Iran,
with its moribund revolution, have never ceased rumbling. Amidst a crumbling
economy, the country remains belligerent, using its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah,
to launch at least one
successful drone flight above Israel and reportedly initiating recent cyber
attacks.As a result, relations among regional actors remain tense. After his speech at the United Nations appealing for a “red line” on the Iranian nuclear program in the spring or summer of 2013, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu called an early general election, which could potentially give him a strong mandate for action against Iran. Egypt, meanwhile, is finding its own equilibrium, both domestically, drafting a new constitution, and in terms of foreign policy.
Then there is Turkey, straddling Europe and the Middle East. An emerging economy poised to become a regional power, it has exchanged fire with its neighbor to the south, Syria, and has called on its NATO allies to bolster its security.
This is part of the changing panorama that new world leaders will inherit in the Middle East – a region in which the United States has been deeply involved. After nearly a decade of draining military engagement, the US combat mission in Iraq concluded in 2010, and the combat mission in Afghanistan is set to end in 2014.
The next American president will also inherit a country with a markedly changed geopolitical perspective. Technological advances and innovation have begun to turn the longstanding dream of energy independence into a reality. Whereas extraction of America’s extensive reserves of natural gas was previously thought to be unfeasible, technologies such as hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) have ushered in a shale-gas revolution.
Indeed, the US is on the cusp of energy self-sufficiency. Last year, for the first time in 15 years, less than one-half of the oil consumed in the US was imported. Annual growth in shale-gas production has increased from 17% between 2000 and 2006 to 48% between 2006 and 2010. By 2035, shale gas is projected to account for roughly one-half of total US energy production.
The repercussions of this revolution will not be only economic. Politically, reduced reliance on foreign oil may allow the US to concentrate on its foreign-policy shift toward Asia.
But it is not just the new US leader who will inherit a changed world. Across the Pacific, the days of record-breaking economic growth in Asia – a key component of social and political stability – may be coming to an end.
Indeed, events in China in recent months have revealed internal unease. Though nationalist sentiment directed against external foes tends to divert attention temporarily from internal turmoil, the country’s serious domestic problems need to be addressed. China’s economy and politics, ideologically transformed in all but name, will soon need to be adapted to address rising social inequality.
Despite global economic headwinds, China’s leaders will surely remain focused on maintaining and boosting growth, in order to lift more Chinese out of poverty and avert social unrest; they are also certain to continue monitoring the oil-rich Middle East. After years of relying on America’s presence in the region, playing an advantageous waiting game, China’s next leaders may embrace a more active role. And, because China’s reputation in the region is untainted by a legacy of imperialism, they may be in a rather advantageous position to do so.
Meanwhile, the European Union is struggling with its own demons. Despite the EU’s need to focus inward while weathering the global economic crisis, the Union must not abandon its neighbors to the south. It is crucial to engage with the southern Mediterranean region as a critical meeting point – a place of political, economic, and energy cooperation. In this respect, the EU’s most valuable tools are its signature, Nobel Prize-winning model of multilateral dialogue and soft power.
Next door, Russia, too, must respond to new vulnerabilities stemming from changing global conditions. The Kremlin continues to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, maintaining a strict aversion to military intervention and seeking to defend its strategic interests, including its naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus. That stance has translated, most obviously, into repeated vetoes of UN Security Council resolutions aimed at ending a conflict that has already produced tens of thousands of victims.
International inaction on Syria is bad news not only for the country’s people; it is also eroding the legitimacy of one of the world’s most important multilateral institutions. Given that the issues of Iran and Syria are closely connected, internal division among the Security Council’s five permanent members (the US, China, Britain, France, and Russia) could be extremely damaging to the search for a solution to Iran’s nuclear-enrichment drive. That is reflected in the current stalemate in talks between them (plus Germany) and Iran.
Too much is at stake, which is why all possible tracks for a negotiated outcome must be pursued. Whether or not recent rumors of bilateral US-Iran talks prove true, such initiatives should be welcomed. While the big players remain preoccupied with their internal changes, the region continues to smolder. The main question now is whether the leaders who emerge in November will be firefighters or fire starters.
Javier Solana was Foreign Minister of Spain, Secretary-General of NATO, and EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics and Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
十一月之後的世界
馬德裡—11月6日，奧巴馬或羅姆尼將從曠日持久的選戰中勝出，稱為未來四年的掌舵人。在大洋彼岸，11月8日，2000多名中共代表將在北京開會。大約一周後，新的政治局常委將從層級序列中脫穎而出，準備接管有著13億人口的增長之國。
世界最大的兩個經濟體面臨著領導人交接班。世界本身也是如此。特別是中東正在經歷密集轉型的時刻。重建——不管從字面意思還是引申意思看——正在該地區的一些部分萌芽，敘利亞等國家正在燃燒。伊朗等其他國家還在做困獸之斗。盡管經濟蕭條，伊朗仍然好斗不已，通過其黎巴嫩代理人真主黨發動了至少一次針對以色列的成功的無人機空襲，最近，據說還發動了網絡襲擊。
結果，地區勢力間的關係依然緊張。以色列總理內塔尼亞胡在聯合國大會上呼吁在2013年春天或夏天為伊朗核計劃劃定一條“紅線”，現在又呼吁提前進行大選，以便讓他牢牢掌握對伊朗採取行動的指揮權。與此同時，埃及還在尋找自己的均衡，既包括國內均衡（起草新憲法），也包括外交政策均衡。
還有橫跨歐亞的土耳其。作為一個意在成為地區一極的新興國家，土耳其已於其南部鄰國敘利亞開火，並呼吁其北約盟國予以支持。
這是世界新領導人所要接手的中東變局的一部分——美國在這一地區早已泥足深陷。在經歷了近十年的日漸疲軟的軍事干預後，美國在伊拉克的作戰任務於2010年結束，在阿富汗的作戰任務計劃在2014年結束。
新人美國總統還將接手一個面臨地緣政治前景重大變化的國家。技術進步和創新已讓能源獨立的長期夢想開始成為現實。美國有著巨大的原本認為無法利用的天然氣儲備，但液壓致裂法等技術已經開啟了頁岩氣革命之門。
事實上，已經站在了能源自給的邊緣。去年，美國所消費的石油中只有不到一半來自進口，這是15年來的第一次。頁岩氣年產量增長率從2000—2006年間的17%提高到2006—2010年間的48%。到2035年，預計頁岩氣將佔美國能源產量的一半左右。
這場革命的反響絕不僅僅局限於經濟。在政治上，減少對外國石油的依賴使得美國能夠將外交政策焦點轉向亞洲。
但並非只有美國新領導人面臨著變化的世界。在大洋彼岸亞洲經濟增長頻創記錄——社會和政治穩定的關鍵因素——的日子正在走向終結。
事實上，近幾個月來在中國發生的事情體現了其內部的不安定。盡管針對外部敵人的民族主義情緒暫時把注意力從內部動蕩中轉移開去，但中國嚴重的國內問題始終需要解決。中國經濟和政治——意識形態早已發生了變化，只是名義未改——很快就必須做出改變，以解決日漸加劇的社會不平等。
盡管全球經濟形勢不利，但中國領導人顯然仍會把注意力集中在維持和提振增長，以幫助更多的中國人走出貧困，避免社會動蕩﹔他們也必然會繼續關注富油的中東。多年來，中國一直在進行有利的等待，讓美國在中東呼風喚雨，而下一代領導人可能會採取更積極的政策。中國在該地區的名聲從未受帝國主義遺毒的侵蝕，因此在中東問題上，中國的地位頗為有利。
與此同時，歐盟正在自身的困境中掙扎。盡管歐盟需要同時管好自己並抵御全球經濟危險，但也不能拋棄其南方鄰居。介入南地中海地區，將其作為關鍵切入點，進行政治、經濟和能源合作是很重要的。在這方面，歐盟最有價值的工具是其名聲，其獲得了諾貝爾獎的多邊對話和軟實力模式。
緊鄰歐洲的俄羅斯也必須應對源自變化的全球環境的新的動蕩之勢。克裡姆林宮繼續支持著敘利亞巴沙爾·阿薩德政權，充當著軍事干預的頑固障礙，尋求捍衛其自身的戰略利益（包括在敘利亞城市塔爾圖斯的海軍基地）。這一立場最清晰的體現是俄羅斯一再否決聯合國安理會旨在結束已經造成數萬受害者的沖突的方案。
對敘利亞的國際不作為不僅對該國人民是壞消息，也損害著全世界最重要的多邊機構之一的正統性。由於伊朗問題和敘利亞問題關系密切，安理會五常（中美英法俄）的分歧對於尋找伊朗和濃縮行為的解決方案也是極為有害的。最近五常（以及德國）和伊朗的談判陷入僵局就是明証。
相關利益方太多，這就是為什麼需要盡一切可能追求談判解決方案。不管關於美國-伊朗雙邊談判的傳聞是否屬實，這樣的努力值得歡迎。大國仍被國內變局束縛著手腳，中東的悶火仍在郁積。目前的主要問題是11月上台的領導人會成為救火員還是縱火犯。