TOKYO –
Brinkmanship seems to be congenital in North
Korea. Under the late Kim Jong-il’s pudgy
young successor – his third son, Kim Jong-un, dubbed “the Young General” –
threats and mendacity still mark the Hermit
Kingdom’s diplomacy.
With North Korea’s
announcement of plans to use an Unha-3 rocket to launch its Bright Star-3
satellite into earth orbit in mid-April, the newest threat is a continuation
of an old one. Indeed, it signals a quick demise for the agreement reached with
the United States
just weeks ago.The decision to launch the satellite, which had been planned by Kim Jong-il, is clearly intended to provide a “heroic” martial achievement for a new leader who lacks any military experience. The regime aims to boost North Korea’s international prestige and domestic morale simultaneously, with the population supposedly keen to support this show of the country’s technological and military might.
And, no surprise, North Korea’s leaders also claim that what they propose to launch is a “peaceful” satellite. But no one, particularly in the region, where North Korean missiles pose the gravest threat, accepts this claim at face value. It is clear that the rocket to be launched is effectively a long-range ballistic missile, which might be able to reach Guam, the site of an important US military base.
So doubtful is the world of North Korea’s claim of peaceful intent that not only did the United Nations, South Korea, the US, Japan, and the European Union immediately express concern; so did China and Russia – perhaps the only two countries in the world that are on good terms with the Kim regime.
Despite the international community’s almost unanimous demand for restraint, North Korea is highly unlikely to roll back its launch plans. Halting such missile tests is simply not an option for a regime whose only claim to legitimacy is the military threat that it poses to others.
The announcement of the forthcoming launch is timed, as always seems to be the case with North Korea’s provocations, to the regime’s need for food and funds from around the world to prevent the reemergence of mass starvation at home. Moreover, 2012 is a special year for North Korea, starting with the 70th anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s birth on February 16. That occasion will be followed by the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth on April 15 and the 80th anniversary of the creation of the People’s Army on April 25. The country’s undernourished masses are not being invited to the capital, Pyongyang, for the extravagant parades that will be held at enormous cost. The missile launch, it seems, will have to suffice for them.
The regime uses food as the currency of its domestic power and foreign policy. For the commemoration of Kim Jong-il’s birthday in February, a kilogram of fish was provided to residents in one district, but nowhere else. At the same time, the regime sought 240,000 tons of nutritional support in its recent negotiations with the US and South Korea, though the North was forced to return 30,000 tons of rice from a previous food-aid package as part of its recent agreement with the US.
Indeed, the North lets few diplomatic occasions pass without strong-arming its interlocutors for more. For Kim Jong-un, even a meeting with Japanese officials in Ulan Bator, Mongolia’s capital, to discuss the return of Japanese women who went to North Korea with their Korean husbands thinking that they were journeying to a socialist paradise, served as a platform to secure food aid from Japan.
The negotiations were to be held between Song Il-ho, North Korea’s ambassador responsible for normalizing relations with Japan, and Hiroshi Nakai, a former minister who negotiates officially for the release of Japanese citizens abducted by the North. But Nakai was unable to leave Tokyo, and a university professor replaced him as Japan’s negotiator. Rank-conscious North Korea would normally send a lower official than Song if his counterpart were substituted, but no change was made, so desperate is the North for food.
North Korea then asked Japan for economic aid and food supplies in exchange for returning not only the Japanese wives in question, but also seven Japanese known to have been abducted by the North. The Japanese aid, like the ransom paid to a kidnapper, must be provided by April 15, just in time for the commemoration of Kim Il-song’s birth – a clear indication of North Korea’s true intentions, and desperation.
And now, given the potential cost of scuttling the recent agreement with the US, the decision to launch a long-range missile takes that desperation a step further. In fact, it has been suggested that the launch is intended to be a demonstration to Iran of the North’s missile prowess, as the Islamic Republic could become a customer for the illicit missile and nuclear-technology sales that are one of the regime’s few sources of hard currency.
Thus, the North Korean drama, now starring Kim Jong-un, plays on, relying on extorted proceeds from manufactured crises abroad to finance spectacular kitsch and brutal repression at home. It is up to China, the real director of the North Korean production, to drop the curtain on this abominable show and its rogue star.
Yuriko Koike, the first woman to serve as Japan’s
defense minister and the country’s first-ever National Security Adviser, currently chairs the
opposition Liberal Democratic Party’s executive council. In 2008, she was the
first woman ever to seek the Japanese premiership, and from 2003-2006 served as
Minister of the Environment. Fluent in Arabic, she is a Middle
East specialist, as well as one of Asia’s
leading geo-strategists.
小池百合子: 小將軍的老把戲
東京—邊緣政策似已深入朝鮮骨髓。在金正日又矮又胖的繼承人——即其三太子、人稱“小將軍”的金正恩——治下，威脅和謊言仍是這一隱遁王國外交的特征。
朝鮮宣布計劃在4月中旬用銀河三號（Unha-3）火箭將光明行三號衛星送入地球軌道，這一新威脅是舊威脅的繼續。事實上，這表明幾周前才與美國達成的協議將迅速失效。
該衛星發射計劃在金正日時代就已開始謀劃，顯然，該計劃是為了給缺少軍隊經驗的新領導人提供“威武”的軍事成就。當局意在同時提高朝鮮的國際地位和國內士氣，朝鮮人民想必將熱烈支持這一計劃，並將之視為朝鮮技術和軍事實力的展示。
此外，毫不奇怪，朝鮮領導人還說，這次發射的是“和平”衛星。但沒人會把這句話當真——特別是在將朝鮮導彈視為最大威脅的東北亞地區。顯然，即將發射的火箭實際上是遠程彈道導彈，其射程可能可達美軍重要駐地關島。
國際社會對朝鮮“和平目的”的宣告根本不信，不僅聯合國、韓國、美國、日本和歐盟立刻表示關注，就連中國和俄羅斯也持有這一立場——中俄大概是僅有的兩個替朝鮮體制說好話的國家。
盡管國際社會異口同聲要求朝鮮保持克制，但朝鮮基本不可能收回發射計劃。對朝鮮政權來說，維持其合法性的唯一辦法是對他人施加軍事威脅，停止導彈試射絕不是可行的選擇項。
宣布發射計劃的時間是精心選擇的——朝鮮的挑舋行為一貫如此——即在該國需要國際糧食和資金以防國內大飢荒重現的時候。此外，2012對朝鮮來說是一個特殊的年份。2月16日是金正日誕辰70年紀念。接著，4月15日將迎來金日成誕辰100周年，4月25日是人民軍成立80周年。營養不良的朝鮮群眾並未獲邀前往首都平壤參加花費靡巨的奢華游行。導彈的發射大概是為了滿足他們。
朝鮮當局將糧食作為國內權力和對外政策的通貨。2月份，為紀念金正日70誕辰，某區居民獲發每人一公斤魚（其他地方的居民無此待遇）。與此同時，朝鮮當局還在於美國和韓國的最新談判中獲得24萬噸營養物資，但與此同時，朝鮮也被迫從先前的糧食援助計劃中返還3萬噸，作為與美國最新協議的一部分。
事實上，朝鮮基本上不會錯過任何外交機會在對話者身上充分榨取好處。就拿金正恩來說吧，就連與日本官員在烏蘭巴托的會面——本來目的是討論遣返帶著奔赴社會主義天堂的美好願望與朝鮮丈夫共同前往朝鮮的日本婦女的問題——也可以被他用作保証從日本獲得糧食援助的平台。
該談判本應在朝鮮負責對日關系正常化的大使宋日昊與負責釋放羈押在朝日籍人士談判的前政府大臣中井洽之間展開。但中井洽無法離開東京，因此由一位大學教授替他擔任日方談判員。按注重級別的朝鮮的一貫作風，如果對方改換談判員，朝方也將派遣級別不及宋日昊者與其會面。但這一幕並沒有發生，由此可見朝鮮對糧食的渴望。
接著，朝鮮要求日本給予糧食和經濟援助，作為交換，朝鮮不但可以遣返日本所要求的日籍親眷，甚至還可以釋放被朝鮮羈押的七名日本人。日本的援助——與人質贖金無異——必須在4月15日前落實，以趕上金正日誕辰紀念——顯然，這才是朝鮮的真正目的，而且極為迫切。
而在眼下，考慮到撕毀新近達成的朝美協議的潛在代價，朝鮮發射遠程導彈的決定更加顯示了其急不可耐的心理。事實上，朝鮮的這次發射是為了向伊朗展示自己的導彈實力，而伊朗可能成為朝鮮非法導彈和核技術——朝鮮當局唯一的硬通貨——的客戶。
如此看來，輪到金正恩粉墨登場的朝鮮鬧劇還在繼續，它利用人造危機大行敲詐之事，為其國內的庸俗紀念儀式和殘酷鎮壓融資。作為朝鮮一言一行的真正指導者，中國應該站出來讓這場鬧劇及其流氓主演消停消停。