PARIS – And the next French President will be…the Socialist Party’s
candidate François Hollande. A month ago, any prediction uttered with such
certainty would have sounded imprudent, if not foolish. Uncertainty prevailed.
Four candidates dominated the competition, and no one would have dared to
predict which two will make it to the second-round run-off. Indeed, the race
looked more open than ever in recent memory.Suddenly, something happened – not an event in itself (though it started with Hollande’s first great public rally in mid-January), but rather something that may resemble an irresistible process that can be summarized as follows: a majority of the French want to punish a president who has fallen from their graces.
They might not have dared to do so had they not found a reasonably credible alternative. Hollande, by appearing more sound and determined than most French voters thought he was, has given a voice (and a face) to a widespread desire to reject the incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy.
That is not to say that Hollande is charismatic. On the contrary, there
remain lingering doubts about his gravitas, not to mention serious concerns
about the realism or the wisdom of his program. But, unlike his former
companion, Ségolène Royal, who challenged Sarkozy for the presidency in 2007,
he looks and sounds “real.”From now on, the campaign appears set to be transformed into a classic left-right struggle, but with a major difference between the two main candidates’ strategies. Hollande wants to turn the presidential election into a referendum on Sarkozy, who, given his unpopularity, is seeking to frame the battle in terms of values and experience.
Indeed, the essence of Sarkozy’s campaign message has become: “You might not like me personally (you would be wrong, by the way, because I am not as you see me, and my experience in power has transformed me deeply), but you support my conservative values, because they represent what you really think. In a world that is changing so rapidly and brutally, you need stability and reassurance. I can give you that.”
By emphasizing the ideological divide between him and Hollande, Sarkozy is
also being led to court, more openly than ever, the extreme-right electorate of
Marine Le Pen’s National Front, as if he sensed that she might not find enough
signatures to qualify for a place on the ballot. This strategy may make sense
in the first round, but, by attracting extreme-right voters in the first round,
Sarkozy could lose the support of centrist voters in the run-off. They might be
willing to vote for “experience,” but not for a “Christian conservative” who
strays from humanistic values.In any case, one could argue that the French are being unfair toward their president. Sarkozy has had to confront exceptionally difficult circumstances, and his record is far from poor. At the beginning of his term, France was at the helm of the European Union, and he proved to be a skillful leader. Understanding the gravity of the economic crisis that erupted in 2008, he reacted swiftly and with considerable energy. He has also launched a major and long-overdue reform of the pension system and higher education. He made the right choices in intervening in Côte d’Ivoire and Libya.
One could easily add more such examples. In brief, Sarkozy has sincerely tried to reform a deeply paralyzed country. And he cannot be held responsible for high unemployment, given the depth of the world crisis.
Yet, barring a last-minute miracle – a major mistake by Hollande that wrecks
his credibility, or a fresh bout of crisis that stokes voters’ desire for
reassuring continuity at the top – Sarkozy appears condemned to be the second
one-term president in the history of the Fifth Republic, following Valéry
Giscard d’Estaing.In 1981, Giscard was defeated largely as a result of the “betrayal” of his former prime minister, Jacques Chirac, who ran against him. In 2012, no one in Sarkozy’s camp is betraying the president (those who are trying, such as former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, have received no support). It is Sarkozy himself who has betrayed the hopes of his supporters and consolidated the hostility of his opponents.
Sarkozy did so mostly at the very beginning of his presidency, and he is likely to be punished for it in 2012. He has changed for the better, but only up to a point, and clearly not enough for a majority of the French, who, according to recent public-opinion polls, simply cannot stand the idea of having him on their television screens for another five years.
Of course, as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson used to say, “a week is a long time in politics,” and Sarkozy will officially become a candidate only this week. Yet it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for him to prevent the upcoming election from becoming an emotional and negative referendum on his persona.
Dominique Moisi is the author of The Geopolitics of
Emotion
Dominique Moisi: 日薄西山的薩爾科齊
巴黎——下一任法國總統是……社會黨候選人弗朗索瓦·奧朗德（François
Hollande）。倘若是在一個月前，任何如此言之鑿鑿的預測如果不被視為愚蠢的話，至少也是不明智。當時情況十分不明朗，四位候選人佔據了整場競選，沒人敢預測究竟哪倆位將會進入到下一輪。事實上，這是一場比以往都更加充滿各種可能性的競爭。
但突然之間，發生了某些事件——不僅僅是事件本身（雖然在歐朗德在一月中旬發起的第一次大游行之時就已初露端倪），而是某些看似不可扭轉的進程，一言以蔽之：大多數法國人想要懲罰那個辜負了他們一番苦心的總統。
但直到找到了一個合理且可靠的代替者之前，選民們是不會這樣做的。而奧朗德，這個比大多數法國人想象中更好也更有決心的人，為這種廣泛存在於人民心中的渴求提供了一種聲音（以及一個面孔）——讓如今的當政者，尼古拉·薩爾科齊，下台走人。
這並不是說奧朗德是個特別有魅力的人。恰恰相反，坊間依然存在著許多對此人品行的質疑，更別提其政綱是否可行或合理。但跟其在2007年時與薩爾科齊爭奪總統之位的前搭檔賽格琳·羅雅爾（Ségolène Royal）不同的是，奧朗德無論是看上去還是聽上去都特別“真實”。
從今以後，整場競選似乎注定要轉變成為一場經典的左右之爭，但兩大候選人的戰略卻存在著一個重要區別。奧朗德試圖將大選變為一場針對薩科齊的全民公決，而失去了民望的後者卻想將這場鬥爭局限為一場價值觀與經驗之爭。
事實上，薩爾科齊的競選活動正是想傳達這麼一條核心信息：“你可能不太喜歡我這個人（其實你錯了，因為我並不僅僅是你眼中的我，多年的執政經驗已經使我發生了深刻的轉變），但你會支持我的保守主義價值觀，因為這才是你內心的訴求。在這個急劇變化的世界上你需要穩定和信心，而這也是我所能給予的。”
通過強調自己與歐朗德之間的意識形態差異，薩爾科齊甚至走的更遠，起了打瑪琳·勒龐(Marine Le Pen)的國民陣線黨那批極右翼選民的主意，因為他估計勒龐無法得到足夠的支持去在選舉中佔一席之地。這一策略或許能在第一輪湊效，但在吸引了那批極右翼選民之後，薩科齊很可能會在下一輪選舉中失去中間派選民的支持。他們或許願意為他“富有經驗”投一票，卻不投給一個偏離了人道價值的“基督教保守主義者”。
無論如何，都有人會爭辯說法國人對自己的總統有點不公平。薩爾科齊在執政期間遭遇了極端困難的情況，而他的表現也可圈可點。在其任期之初恰逢法國擔任歐盟輪值主席國，而薩爾科齊也証明了自己是個有政治手腕的領導人物。在意識到2008年經濟危機的嚴重性之後，他迅速做出反應並做出了相當多的努力。他啟動了對養老金和高等教育方面一直久拖不決的重大改革，在介入科特迪瓦和利比亞事務也做出了正確的選擇。
你可以輕易地找出類似的例子。一言以蔽之，薩爾科齊確實真心想要改革法國這個陷入層層癱瘓的國家，而鑒於嚴峻的全球危機，也不應該將當前的高失業率全怪罪到他一人身上。
但除非在最後一刻出現了奇跡——比如奧朗德犯下了自毀信譽的大錯，或者新一輪危機的侵襲使得選民將保持連續性重新放到了第一位，否則薩爾科齊將很可能步吉斯卡爾·德斯坦（Valéry Giscard d’Estaing）的後塵，成為法蘭西第五共和國歷史上第二位只幹了一屆就下台的總統。
然而吉斯卡爾1981年的連任失利在很大程度上要歸因於其前總理雅克·希拉克的“背叛”，最終被後者取而代之。但今年薩科齊陣營並未出現叛徒（雖然也有前總理德維爾潘這樣的人試圖倒戈，但都未能得到民眾支持），而真正背叛其支持者並使其反對者團結一致的，正是薩科齊自己。
這些怨恨大多是在薩爾科齊任期剛開始時結下，而他也將在2012年為此付出代價。他的變革改善了整體狀況，但顯然尚未達到令大多數法國人滿意的程度。據最近一項民調顯示，這些民眾已經無法忍受在電視屏幕上再看他五年。
當然，正如英國前首相哈羅德·威爾遜（Harold Wilson）所言，“就政治而言，一星期都嫌長，”而薩爾科齊也將在這一週內正式成為一名候選人。雖然極端困難,
卻並非不可能, 他可避免一場對他公眾形象充滿著負面情緒的公投。
Dominique
Moisi是《情感的地緣政治》一書的作者