NEWPORT BEACH – A year ago,
Egyptians of all ages and religions took to the streets and, in just 18 days of
relatively peaceful protests, removed a regime that had ruled over them with an
iron fist for 30 years. Empowered by an impressive yet leaderless movement –
largely of young people – the country’s citizens overcame decades of fear to
reclaim a voice in their future.
While much has been achieved since those euphoric times, Egypt’s revolution
today is, unfortunately, incomplete and imperfect – so much so that some now
doubt whether it will fully succeed. I believe that the doubters will be proven
wrong.
Over the last year, Egyptians have voted in their first free and fair
parliamentary elections. They have discovered and used freedom of expression in
a way that, not so long ago, would have been deemed unthinkable. Participation
in civic activities is on the rise. And Egyptians are learning a lot about who
they are as a society, and what they can achieve collectively.
For the first time in decades, millions of Egyptians now feel that they
“own” their country, and that they are directly responsible for its well-being,
and for that of future generations. This is a priceless accomplishment for a
country that had underachieved on so many fronts for so many years, in the
process losing its self-confidence, failing to meet its considerable economic
and social potential, and falling in international development rankings.
But greater ownership does not translate into full contentment.
Dissatisfaction today is high and rising, and understandably so. Institutions
are failing to adapt quickly enough. The legal system lacks sufficient
legitimacy and agility. Everyday security, while improving, is still far from
adequate.
Not surprisingly, the economy is struggling, and it will likely get
worse in the months ahead. Growth is sluggish, amplifying alarmingly high youth
unemployment. Shortages of some goods have started to appear, and the country
is turning to the International Monetary Fund and other creditors for emergency
financing.
So it is no less surprising that Egyptians now feel that, after an
exhilarating start, their revolution has become stuck in a muddled purgatory.
Moreover, many now believe that the future is as uncertain as ever, which is
naturally fueling frustration with anyone deemed responsible for the lack of
forward movement. Indeed, with increasing domestic tensions diverting energy
from forward-looking initiatives, some Egyptians are even beginning to wonder
whether it would not have been better to stick with the prior system.
What Egyptians are experiencing today is not new; it is familiar to many
countries that have gone through a fundamental systemic change. After all,
revolutions go far beyond popular uprisings and the overthrow of old regimes.
They are dynamic processes that must navigate a number of critical pivot
points, including, most importantly, the move from dismantling the past to
establishing the basis for a better future.
Some contend that Egypt will not be
able to undertake this shift. But, while I acknowledge their arguments, I think
that they misunderstand what is fundamentally at play in the country today.
Doubters note that what remains of Egypt’s internal and
external institutional anchors serve to retard the revolutionary process rather
than to refine and accelerate it. They believe that the country’s growing
economic malaise will strengthen the argument for sticking with what Egyptians
know, rather than opting for a more uncertain future. Finally, they point to
the wait-and-see attitude of Egypt’s friends and
allies.
These are all valid and important considerations, but they are not
overwhelming. Rather, they are headwinds that can and will be overcome, for
they fail to capture a reality that is evident from the sentiments of a broad
cross-section of society. Egyptians will not settle for an incomplete
revolution – not now, and especially not after all of the sacrifices that have
been made.
Completing their revolution will be not an easy, quick, or smooth
process, but it will happen. Egyptians’ collective determination will ensure
that, in the revolution’s second year, the country will get a new constitution,
hold proper presidential elections, and benefit from a functioning and representative
parliament. Having completed the transition, the armed forces will return to
their barracks and to safeguarding the country from foreign threats.
Any attempt to divert this legitimate process will be met by millions of
Egyptians taking to the streets in protest. Make no mistake: Egyptians are
committed to completing their impressive revolution, and they will.
Mohamed
A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide.
Mohamed A.
El-Erian: 埃及未竟革命必將成功
紐波特海灘—一年前，埃及人民部分年齡、部分信仰，全部走上街頭，在經歷了為期18天的短暫而相對和平的示威后，推翻了鐵腕統治他們30多年的體制。這場令人矚目的運動並沒有明確的領導人，參與者大多是年輕群眾。這場運動讓埃及人民獲得了力量，克服了數十年的恐懼，重新掌握了自己的未來。
但是，盡管此后埃及人民取得了極大的成就，但埃及革命如今仍然沒有完成，也遠稱不上完美，以至於已經有人開始懷疑它到底能不能徹底成功。我相信，質疑者最終將被証明是錯誤的。
在過去的一年中，埃及人民首次在自由公平的議會選舉中投下了選票。他們獲得並行使了言論自由權，而這在不久前還是無法想象的。民眾參與公共活動的熱情也在高漲。埃及人民在如何用社會的思維思考自己、如何以集體行動方式獲得成功等方面取得了長足的進步。
幾十年來，數百萬埃及人民第一次感到他們“擁有”了祖國，對祖國狀況的好壞和子孫后代的福祉有著直接責任。對於這個多年來在多個方面大大落后、自信心不斷下降、經濟和社會的巨大潛力一直得不到開發、國際發展排名不斷下滑的國家來說，這是了不起的成就。
但更大的主人翁感覺並沒有轉變成更高的滿意度。如今，不滿情緒高企，而且在不斷上升，這是不難理解的。制度調整太慢，跟不上人民的要求。法律體系缺乏足夠的合理性和靈活性。日常安全盡管在改善，但仍不能令人滿意。
毫不奇怪，埃及經濟陷入了困境，在未來幾個月中，可能會愈加困難。增長停滯不前，加劇了已然值得警惕的青年人高失業。一些商品也出現了短缺，因此埃及正在求助IMF和其他債權人給予緊急融資。
因此，埃及人民現在感到革命在一個愉快的開頭后陷入了一團亂麻停滯不前，這並不令人奇怪。此外，如今很多人認為，未來如同以前那樣充滿了不確定性，因此，被對認為應對缺乏進步負責者的不滿情緒不斷高漲也就不足為奇了。事實上，隨著國內緊張局面使得能量無法集中於“向前看”，一些埃及人甚至開始質疑，堅持原有體制是不是會更好。
埃及人民今天正在經歷的一切並不新鮮，大量曾經經歷過基本體系變革的國家對此一點都不陌生。畢竟，革命並不僅僅是揭竿而起推翻舊王朝那麼簡單。這是一個動態過程，需要經歷一系列臨界關鍵點，包括（最重要的）從推翻過去到建立美好未來新基石的轉變。
有人認為，埃及無法實現這一變遷，但是，盡管我承認他們的話不是完全沒有道理，但我仍然認為，他們誤解了當今埃及局面的基本點。
質疑者指出，埃及內部和外部的制度之錨對革命進程是一種妨礙，而不是一種提煉和加速。他們認為，埃及經濟的不斷惡化將強化國內堅持熟悉道路的聲音，而不是選擇更具不確定性的未來。最后，他們還指出，埃及的朋友和盟軍無不持有“靜觀其變”的態度。
這些顧慮非常現實，也非常重要，但並不是壓倒性的。反之，這些都是可以也必將被克服的困難，因為它們與當今埃及顯而易見的橫掃一切的情緒相悖。埃及人們不會滿足於一場不完全的革命——現在不會，在付出了大量犧牲之后更加不會。
完成革命也不會是一件輕易、快捷而平穩的事情，但終究將發生。埃及人民的集體意願將確保在革命的第二年，這個國家將出現新的憲法、進行合適的總統選舉並得益於一個運轉良好的代議制議會。完成轉型后，武裝力量將回歸本職——保衛埃及不受外敵入侵。
任何試圖從這條合理之路引開的圖謀都將受到數百萬埃及人民的街頭抗議。不要弄錯了，埃及人民已下定決心要把這場引人注目的革命完成，他們必將得償所願。
Mohamed
A. El-Erian 是太平洋投資管理公司首席執行官兼聯席首席投資官，著有《碰撞》。