tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31582589627477807512024-02-21T06:18:59.693-08:00Just Getting By混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comBlogger9237125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-24335532822764347692016-03-14T21:59:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:59:23.407-07:00古德明: 鄭松泰、梁天琦說得好! <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">從前,香港政治無非民主、獨裁之爭。現在,梁天琦之流聲明要「三分天下」,自樹一幟,然則他們不以民主自任,清楚得很。不過,他們以蜀漢自居,卻使人想起漢丞相諸葛亮《出師表》上四個字:「引喻失義。」</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">蜀</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">漢的立國方針,見《後出師表》:「漢賊不兩立。」為滅曹賊,諸葛亮致力「外連東吳」,建興元年主政之後,馬上遣鄧芝出使吳國,修補兩國因劉備征吳而破裂的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">關係。孫權最初還有點猶豫,鄧芝剖陳利害,指出蜀漢、東吳合力,才有作為:「蜀有重險之固,吳有三江之阻,合此二長,共為唇齒,進可并兼天下,退可鼎足而</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">立,此理之自然也。」孫權點頭說:「君言是也。」要抗強曹,蜀漢必須和東吳合作(《三國志》卷四十五);現在,香港要抗中共,所謂本土派不但堅拒和社民</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">連、人民力量、新同盟、公民黨等民主黨派攜手,還鳴鼓而攻。他們自比蜀漢,諸葛亮九泉有知,當撫膺歎息:「真不知人間有羞恥事。」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">美國紐約前市長彭博最近撰文,表示不會角逐總統大位:「本屆共和黨競選人不成器,而我勝算不高,不想共和黨漁人得利。」彭博之愛國如此,香港所謂本土派之「愛港」則如彼,誰真誰偽,了了可見。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: red; font-family: DFKai-SB;">古德明</span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">:</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: red; font-family: DFKai-SB;">「和平理性非暴力」論</span></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: red; font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「和平、理性、非暴力」:這是香港民主派常說的原則,也是所謂本土派譏笑的「和理非」。民主派之言,本土派之笑,都很有新中國特色。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">民主派既說「和平」,何必還說「非暴力」?天下那有和平主義者鼓吹暴力的?短話長說語語空洞,固然是新中國現代漢語的最高境界,但現代漢語不是中文。中文以簡明扼要為貴。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">只是本土派不會懂得譏笑現代漢語之下流。他們所譏所笑的,是和平,是理性。這不奇怪。他們沒有腦袋。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">手無寸鐵者,在中共坦克車隊之前,用和平手段對抗,稍有腦袋的人,都知道無可厚非。當然,以暴抗暴,更是天經地義。二零一三年七月拙文《再談本土派》甚至</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">說:「香港要有民主,唯一希望,就是中共在全國民變之中魚爛土崩。」和平主義者和以暴抗暴者,可以相輔相成;不是別有用心,不會挑撥離間,務求兩者相殘相</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">殺。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不過,香港本土派國師陳雲卻把以暴抗暴的大陸人民詆為「亂民」,揶揄我是儍瓜:「香港好多儍人,以為香港無法對付中共,只能聯合中共裏</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">面(按「中共裏面」中文應改正為「中共治下」)的亂民來爭取民主。」上月九日,香港旺角終於也出現「亂民」了,陳雲不知為什麼卻稱許他們為「勇武之民」。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本土派連這樣一位人物,都可奉為國師,然則他們嘲諷和平,蔑視理性,應是意料中事。新中國本來就不是講理性的地方。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-37627733018072299202016-03-14T21:57:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:57:45.035-07:00林行止: 強權不忘公道 反對不是作反
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<span style="font-size: small;"><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">一、</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">立法會財務委員會副主席陳鑑林去周五主持會議時,借助議事廳內的混亂,提前表決高鐵撥款;以如此「粗暴」手段主持會議,當然不是端品正行,但是為免高鐵停</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">工,他的做法卻非一無可取,從熒幕上看,陳鑑林議員的態度,絕難討人歡喜,以他的表現看,盡顯橫蠻可謂囂張的險詐,可是,撥款法案通過,對很多人來說,卻</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">未必是壞事,因為高鐵工程到此階段實在是騎虎難下</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">誰把香港利益推上虎背,值得追究</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">此工程若因財源不繼而停工,那是港人的淨損失。由此視角,陳鑑林</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">也許會像行政長官梁振英因使蠻勁、出狠招的處事態度,而被視為有承擔、有功於香港!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">陳鑑林議員去周日在無綫電視的《講清講楚》節目中指出,由於委員會的有關辯論已進入「財委會程序第三十七</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">A</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">條臨時動議」階段,議員仍不停追問相同問題,不</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">合程序,因此決定「提前剪布」;姑勿論如此剪布是否合理合「憲」,以陳氏作為主流建制派「民建聯」要角的身份,他這樣做是符合北京對立法會必須配合政府施</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">政的要求,從內地的角度,便是政治上絕對正確!</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">由於立法會議員經常上演「大龍鳳」,在港人心目中,不管是建制或泛民,遇上具爭議性議題,他們均以敵我分明的立場對抗,是不正不經用世,沒盡議員應盡的義</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">務。堂堂議事廳所以淪落至如斯地步,皆因政府未有及時(甚至可能故意設計)糾正立法會機制失衡情況有以致之,那意味在現行機制下,永遠是與政府同鼻孔出氣</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的建制派佔盡上風,握着「話事權」,結果立法會成為專制機關、偽議政的荒謬劇場。泛民議員為了落實對選民的承諾、為了回應部分市民的訴求,義無反顧亦是為</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">了保住票源,不得不起而抗爭,混亂吵鬧甚至大打出手的場面,終有一天會出現。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">在無法可想無計可施的情形下,拉布總比擲雜物謾罵可取!事實上,拉布是民主議會常見之象,美國的情況,筆者曾細說之,而近日南韓議員一口氣長達十餘小時的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">發言,彰顯了香港立法會議員的拉布十分溫和亦無殺傷力。當然,拉布是議員被制度桎梏逼出來以示不滿的方式,值得同情,然而,一次又一次、無了期這樣做,難</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">免會予人以濫用議事程序的厭煩,如果有人認為動不動便拉布是議員「鬥氣」的表演而不是為香港造福,「拉布幫」不論出發點多麼正確正義,亦不易獲廣大市民的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">認同!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">為了抗議高鐵巨額超支的拉布,雖然師出有名,但是難收積極效果,那是早已寫在牆上;筆者以為,「拉布幫」何不兵分兩路,一方面查察工程開支,看看何以在通</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">縮</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">薪金及物料價格「下行」的機會大於「上行」</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的大環境下還會大幅超支?如果這是人謀不臧,有關人員便應負責</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。另一方面是就立法會議事平台的公</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">平公道,與官方談判,設座標、擬進度,謀求議會議事不失公道不再偏頗。公共工程超支,可說是常態,但在通縮之下的超支,便事不尋常。如果出發點不在「下屆</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">選情」而是真正為香港利益着想,查找何以超支才是積極可行亦較易獲大多數市民支持的辦法。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">二、</span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">香港的議事機制,着實問題甚大,應該急謀修補;建制、泛民的關係不能再爛,不然香港政事無法推動。和世上其他有民選成分的議會一樣,香港立法會不怕吵不怕</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">鬧,最重要是有法有理公開。如果雙方各藉政府撐持、選民囑咐,一遇意見難以調和便人人「賴皮」,各持一方之見兩相爭持甚至動粗而不遵循公道理性的議事原</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">則,立法會肯定很快會失去港人的信心。雙方各執一詞不肯讓步的結不解,立法會將把香港社會帶進一個荒唐世界。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">香港政事寸步難行,北京主管香港事務的官員許或已有醒覺,那意味京官也許正在考慮如何責成行政長官,接近北京的政治活動家心有所屬,紛紛出來表態。全國政</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">協、向有「上海姑爺」別號、今屆貿易發展局主席的瑞安房地產主席羅康瑞,日前接受《明報》訪問,認為把年初一晚旺角騷動的導因歸咎於梁振英政府積下太多民</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">怨而引爆,並不合理,他因此支持梁氏連任;羅氏的說法是倒果為因的歪理。羅氏指梁氏做事不拖拉、不蹉跎,是中的之論,問題是梁氏的做法完全無效甚至有反效</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">果,其辦事手法因此非改不可!羅康瑞表態後不二日,中央政策組首席顧問、有「搞鬥爭幕後智囊」之稱的邵善波,於昨天《星島日報》及《經濟日報》訪問中,更</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">擺出一副強硬姿態,認為北京雖然非常不滿「香港各界」,但一直沒有強硬譴責港獨及分離主義;而「法院對相關案件的判刑又沒阻嚇性」。言下之意,當然是北京</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">要出重手、本港應盡快貫徹三權合作原則。邵氏認為「建制派」保皇不力,他不點名地批評「那些主席」沒強硬執行「議事規定」,好像蠻幹便天下太平;又說「四</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">十幾個人(建制派議員?)坐定定點會流會,四十幾個人成日想溜出去搞自己的事,不開會」,「是四十幾條友不負(這個)責任</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」。邵氏想是認同張浚生議會</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">應配合施政即與當局合作的說法,首席智囊思想如此陳腐、封建,香港還有什麼指望</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">?!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">筆者向來反對把議員分為建制(保皇)與泛民(反對)兩大陣營,因為即使是反對派,在劇烈競爭中成為代議士進入議事廳,便是建制的一部分,那意味他們要盡其</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">為建制一員的責任,是其是、非其非,不能永遠盲目反對、事事唱反調。換句話說,像如今在一些關係全港福祉的議題上,無休止地拉布,是議員玩忽職守的極致。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">雖然這樣做可獲部分對政府極度不滿選民的支持,但沒有方向沒有目標的反對,對建制只有破壞而無建設,令議會癱瘓、一事難成,這豈非有違競逐議員的目的在為</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">民請命、造福的初衷!<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">審視當前國際和內地的政治環境,筆者不以為北京應聽從本港建制「智囊」的建議,以強硬手段打壓本地反對派;以內地的力量,吹一口氣本地反對派便兵敗如山倒,問題是,這樣對國家有何利益(見</span><a href="http://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/1255069/%E6%B2%92%E6%9C%89%E6%A2%9D%E4%BB%B6%E7%A1%AC%E7%A2%B0%E7%A1%AC++%E9%81%BF%E5%85%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F%E8%A1%80%E6%88%90%E6%B2%B3" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">三月八日本欄</span></a><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">)?遠的不說,必須順從股東和客戶意向辦事的外企,便可能因此杯葛任何與內地的商貿,結果不問可知。筆者深知不管什麼人當行政長官,都必須絕對聽北京的明示、暗示辦事,因此由什麼人出掌香港,都不是關鍵</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">關鍵是這個行政長官必須有與反對派溝通的誠意與能力!<br />
</span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-29839409709667631042016-03-14T21:56:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:56:51.097-07:00梁文道: 不做不錯<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">莫</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">非在習近平掌權的今天,中國社會就連底層也都消失了?莫非當局的意識型態方針就是這樣,連中國還有底層都不能承認,否則就會影響社會形勢一片大好的形象營</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">造?實情恐怕不是這麼簡單。因為就在這本書下架的當兒,市面上也還存在着大量關於中國社會底層的文字及影像,甚至還有同類作品正在陸續推出。可見這不是一</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個系統的工程,並非文宣部門想要刻意美化中國的新動作。這本書的命運,只能當成一個個案。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有趣的反而是相關部門那句「今天這個時候,根本就不應該提及中國的什麼社會底層」。「今天這個時候」,表達的是一位官僚對現時政治氣氛的判斷,那就</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是上次我所提到的「敏感」,一種模模糊糊的感受,使得他在這本書裏嗅到一絲危險的氣息。所謂「危險」,指的不是對國家的危害,而是對他個人仕途的影響。也</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">就是說,儘管沒有任何條文命令明示這類書籍不得出版,但萬一有人想要對付他;又或者外頭出了什麼事,責任追究機制發動起來,這本書很有可能會是壓垮他的最</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">後一根稻草。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「氣氛」之為物,可鬆可緊,能夠意會但難以言傳。當前的氣氛緊張,是一般人都能感受得到的。比如我曾在自己的讀書節目裏頭介紹</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">喬治.歐威爾的經典名著《一九八四》,便有觀眾留言表示關切。有的說「這集必須趕緊下載收藏,估計很快就要被拿下了」;又有的說「梁文道你好大的膽子,竟</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">然敢在這種時候介紹這種書,是不是不想混了」。《一九八四》當然是部批判極權體制的反烏托邦小說,很容易被聯想出各種各樣的解讀。但它好歹不是一本禁書,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而且自上世紀九十年代以來,大陸至少流傳過四種以上的譯本,全部都能輕易找到。為什麼現在的年輕觀眾會覺得它很危險呢?答案就是「氣氛」,高層政治鷹派傾</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">向形成之後,官場人人自危,言論尺度日益收窄,擴及到社會上面便是一片山雨欲來風滿樓的慌張。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">然後我們就能回到那本書的問題了。在芸芸述及</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中國社會底層的文化產品之中,偏偏是這一本書惹了麻煩,其最實在的原因只能是它被「關注」到了,又或者它被人舉報了。「關注」和「舉報」不同,只有來自某</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個有地位領導的查問才能叫做「關注」,而任何在具體審查和負責官員之上的領導都能叫做「有地位」,並且不限於同一部門同一系統。有些時候,一部已經上畫的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">電影會在公映之後莫名其妙地失蹤,連網上都找不到片源,那就是因為某個高層大領導看過之後很生氣,被這部電影的某個環節冒犯了。前幾年不是有位知名影星被</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大陸影視圈禁足過一段日子嗎?原因正是一個領導非常看不慣她在一部得獎電影裏頭的裸露鏡頭。在這個體制之內,地位要比規矩重要,一句「領導很生氣」甚或</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「領導不滿意」要比任何法規條文上頭的千言萬語更有份量。從這個角度上講,任何領導都可能擁有審查文化產品的影響力,實際負責審查工作的官僚則是所有這些</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">領導的「下屬」。正好應了那句調侃喉舌官媒的順口溜:「我是黨的一條狗,守在黨的大門口,黨叫咬誰就咬誰,說咬幾口就幾口」。那個「黨」不是一個統一的意</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">志,而是很多個很多個不同的領導。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至於「舉報」,則是今天最可怕的一種社會現象。黃安與陳淨心那種針對民粹情緒,明刀明槍的舉報,固然恐</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">怖;一般官僚更加畏懼的,反而是來自四面八方無名大眾的投訴。因為每一個官僚身上多少都背了些東西,都會擔心在近幾輪的官場整頓之中遭殃。倒不一定是他有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">什麼腐敗情事,只不過一個再懂做人的人,也難免會在職場當中得罪過其他人;一個再謹小慎微的人,也難免會在工作當中犯過錯誤。在險惡的鬥爭環境裏頭,一切</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">投訴都可能變成箭頭;任何沒有「嚴肅處理」的投訴,也可能會惡化成巨大的膿瘡。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">假設有人向你舉報,說某本書有問題,你最該擔憂的一定不是這本書是否真有問題;而是舉報人會不會同時也向你的上司及同僚發過同樣的舉報信。萬一那本書的出版是在你的管轄範圍之內,萬一你有權力叫它下架,而你卻放着不管,你是不是應該害怕這本書會成為其他人對付你的由頭呢?</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">家都曉得,這不是拚業績的時候了,今天最重要的課題莫過於自保。正所謂「多做多錯,不做不錯」,相同的官場邏輯放在文化領域裏頭也一樣通行。收到舉報,也</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">就用不着花費時間精力去調查了,乾脆手起刀落,圖個乾淨。對於文化審查官員而言,最理想的狀況或者是大家都不出書,不拍電影,也都不再有任何種類的創作。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">出了一個有問題的文化產品,那一定是自己的責任;弄出了一個衰敗的文化環境,卻一定不關自己的事。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-42126821053438340862016-03-14T21:56:00.000-07:002016-03-14T21:56:05.135-07:00練乙錚: 大陸高鐵犯台.AlphaGo黃士傑.強國的屁股<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">北京開兩會,傳出消息指大陸計劃興建一條海底隧道直達台灣,建成之後,共軍攻台會很容易。中共做事,從來都是「政治掛帥」,強要香港建高鐵,建成之後,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「點止白象咁簡單」?壞事總成雙,穆迪連番把中國的信用評級展望和香港的評級展望從「穩定」調為「負面」,反向應驗了董伯伯當年的一句口頭禪。不過,灰暗</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">連天的日子裏,還是有一點亮光:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">!<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">一、台海隧道</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">香港高鐵</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">北京政府最近公布的「十三五」建設綱要,包含了一條從福建到台灣的高鐵海底隧道(「京台高鐵」)。消息如此具體,台灣嘩然。陸委會主委夏立言</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日在立法院</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">備詢時指該計劃是「不可能的事」;行政院長張善政則說:「事先沒照會我方」。不過,綠營就不認為那完全是大陸在吃台灣的豆腐。</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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民進黨立委邱議瑩指出,按大陸御用頂級學者王夢恕的說法,大陸與台灣官員就此事洽談已逾</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">10</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">次,對象還包括馬英九當台北市長時委任的北市交通局長曹壽民,因此,台海高鐵籌建事,馬不可能不知道,甚至還可能擔當了某種推手角色。事件背後真相如何,還有待各方挖掘。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">查實,大陸「高鐵犯台」的構思,八十年代已經提出;</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2013</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年的「國家公路網規劃」裏已清楚成形:從福建平潭經海底直達台灣東北部的新竹,總長</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">122</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">公里;一旦建成,大陸「解放台灣」的先頭部隊從該隧道突襲,只要控制得住新竹的出口範圍幾小時,數以萬計的共軍便可魚貫而出;再從新竹到台北的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">80</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">多公里,僅是一步之遙。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">軍事味道如此濃烈的跨海工程大計,大陸準備</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">5</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年之內要落實,台人當然聞之色變。對此,大陸一面試圖把政治意味淡化,另一面卻掩飾不了惡霸心態,所以(筆者</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">最喜歡看的國家級媒體)《環球時報》</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">9</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日的社評〈對京台高鐵如此敏感者,心虛了吧?〉是這樣說的:「台灣一些人自吹他們『民主了就怎麼怎麼樣』,好像自信</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">得都爆棚了。其實叫得最兇的人大概是些懦夫。一條計劃中的京台高鐵就把他們快嚇尿了,夠丟人的」【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">其實,強國要建高鐵,給「快嚇尿了」的,何止台人?近日香港立法會裏出現的高鐵超支</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">200</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">億港元撥款閃電剪布通過的鏡頭,所有明白土木建設後面的政治意圖的香港人,哪個看了不心驚膽裂?<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">錢銀事小,對「坐擁金山」的特區政府而言,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">200</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">億港元之數,真是小菜一碟,過了就過了(今年的財政預算報告預計,至</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2021</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月底,特府將有</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8350</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">億港元的財政儲備)。然而,就算立會擋得住撥款,卻阻不了令香港「被建」高鐵的北方強國政治意志,所以才有王夢恕</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">7</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日說的:「中央不會允許高鐵香</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">港段爛尾,絕對要修通,修不修通不是由香港說了算的。可以內地出錢、派人建設,中央今年一年的鐵路建設預算是人幣</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8000</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">億,香港段的兩三百億算沒多少」</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">替香港建高鐵,當然沒有什麼特別有利的軍事意圖,因為共軍早已兵臨城內,就算再要增派,不論多少,海陸空都有現成通道。所以,政治意圖才是北京的老謀深</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">算:生米煮成熟飯了,在港境搞不搞「一地兩檢」也不會是由香港說了算。過去對「兩制」還只不過是逐步蠶食的話,「一地兩檢」及後便是飛擒大咬。因此,香港</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">高鐵不僅僅是「白象工程」或「土地正義」問題那麼簡單純情,正如建不建「京台高鐵」,絕非僅僅一件經貿交通事。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">八十年代,日本和韓國之間,開始討論興建跨過釜山海峽和對馬海峽、長</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">128</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">公里的日韓海底隧道,有關的技術和經濟論證幾年前已經研究得七七八八,始終無法</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">解決的卻是政治問題,因為不少韓國人認為該隧道建成了會導致韓國併入日本經濟文化圈。</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2009</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年之後,這個計劃已經從日韓兩國的對話中消失。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">同樣,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2000</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年的時候,俄羅斯向日本提出興建一條連結庫頁島和北海道、長</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">45</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">公里的海底隧道的方案,並計算出經濟效益和成本數字,但日本無興趣,因為牽</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">涉的問題更複雜:庫頁島在十九世紀中葉至二十世紀中葉之間的那段時間裏是日本領土(之前屬於大清帝國版圖),二戰之後與「北方四島」一併由蘇俄佔領,島上</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的蝦夷人大部分因此移居北海道。建造隧道的計劃,俄國有意日本無情,也是政治使然【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">大凡兩個不同的政治實體之間要興建一些大型的跨界工程,出岔子大都是因為一些敵對的政治因素。港人面對「被建」高鐵的問題,一直都太天真。共產黨勸香港人</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「不要凡事政治化」,但她自己的哲學卻從來都是「政治掛帥」。你說超支不好麼,她可以面不改容把整筆數包起;對北京而言,兩三百億人仔換一頭「白象」很划</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">算,因為那實際上是一匹紅赤色的特洛伊木馬。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">二、</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">三連勝:人類不完蛋了?</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">谷歌的英國子公司</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">DeepMind</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">設計出的程式</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,與世界圍棋頂級高手、韓國的李世乭九段比併,一周之內先是取得三連勝,第四局才由李九段扳</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">回一城;餘下的一仗,鹿死誰手有疑問。不過,以五盤三勝計算,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">其實已經贏得是次比賽,雖然按圍棋規矩還是要對足</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">5</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">局;那樣更好,有利大家更</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">確切知道高下相差多少。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">從上周賽前開始,媒體報道此事,往往視之為「人機對決」,今見大勢已去,「人類完蛋」之嘆,油然而生,但筆者認為不必,原因有</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">個:<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">第一,所謂的「機」(軟件加硬件),也是人類智慧產物。</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的博弈能力,是幾十年來不少科學家的心血累積(更不用說他們在過程中用上的各種數學</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">方法,包含了千百年的根基);這與李世乭或任何一位高手潛心研究數千年來無數前人博弈經驗所得,並沒有兩樣。我們應該說,人類非但不是完蛋,而是找</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">到了極可能是更好的一種下圍棋的方法,雖然這個方法只是很少數人可以弄懂、掌握。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">第二,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的「機器學習」(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">machine learning</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">),所師法的對象,正正是人類本身。它「閱讀」了無數的古今圍棋棋譜,得其精要,反客為主,在頭三局的比併過程裏,走出不少圍棋專家(包</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">括</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">DeepMind</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的工程師)都認為是離經叛道的奇着,匪夷所思。但是,毫無疑問,世界上所有圍棋高手特別是李九段自己,一定會苦思</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">走出的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">奇着而找出破解之道;也就是說,「人機對決」的另一面是「人機互學」,雖然「機」可能學得比「人」更快,但總的來說依然是對「人」有益。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">第三,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1952</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年,人類寫出了首個百戰百勝</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">tic-tac-toe</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的博弈程式;</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1997</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">IBM</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">DeepBlue</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「機」贏了國際象棋世界冠軍</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Garry Kasparov</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,分出了高下;今年,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Google Deep Mind</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,可說也把圍棋「解決」了。但是,這三種博弈,數學上都屬於同一類,即所謂的「完全資訊博弈」(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">games of perfect information</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">);指的是,在博弈過程中的每一步,博弈者都清楚知道自己和對手在之前走過的每一步是什麼。至於「非完全資訊博弈」(例如各種撲克</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">遊戲、麻雀等),人機對決還處於初始階段,「機」要勝過「人」,還需一段日子。至於像「包剪揼」那樣的一個簡單「同步出招遊戲」,「機」還根本不能保證取</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">勝。人類起碼到目前為止,仍然勝在可以發明各種遊戲規則;這方面的研究,稱為</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">ludology</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,幾乎盡是「人」的天下!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">大家有興趣,不妨瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Google Deep Mind</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">網站。有計算機學歷、懂人工智慧(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AI</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">)理論的讀者更不妨去電郵應徵,因為這間公司正在招攬人才!網站裏關於</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的那部分的一</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">個分頁,列出了所有該公司研究人員發表過的論文,其中最新也是最重要的一篇,排頭的兩位作者是</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">David Silver</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">和</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Aja Huang</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,文末說明他們兩人是主要作者,有同等貢獻。</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><br />
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Aja Huang</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">就是台灣人黃士傑,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Google Deep Mind</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">台柱之一,很年輕。大家若在</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">YouTube</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">實時觀看</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">與李九段博弈,那位替</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">搬動棋子的人就是他。英雄莫問出</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">處,黃不是哈佛</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">MIT</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,也不是牛津劍橋培養出的「尖子」;他的計算機科學博士學位(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2011</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">)是在台灣師範大學拿的。黃並非書呆子,精通</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">compsci</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">之</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">餘,他還是圍棋的業餘六段好手;據他的一位師妹說,他寫的人工智能軟件所創作出的音樂也非常動聽【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">4</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。</span></span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">三、中國衰、香港衰<br />
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</span></strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">董建華年代,中國經濟如日當空,所以他說的「中國好、香港好」,經濟上而言,大體上沒錯;政治方面,因為當時大陸表面上還比較開放寬鬆,而且是九七</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">之後不久,所以香港的政局也「過得去」。曾幾何時,大陸經濟陷入重重困難,官僚體制百病叢生,政治上的「小文革」歪風也愈颳愈烈。影響所及,香港的經濟因</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">為太過依賴大陸,也多方面陷進逆境;政治方面,因為有偏激派的如黨員當政,也出現了</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1967</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年以來的最惡劣境況。「中國衰、香港衰」,全面取代了董伯那句</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「名言」;儘管還只是相當「初步」,也夠大家瞧的了。</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><br />
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3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日,國際信貸評級機構穆迪(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Moody's</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">)把中國政府的信用評級展望由「穩定」下調至「負面」。大陸近幾年社會總欠債急升,企業欠債高達</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">280%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">以上,比美國的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">145%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">還高得多。企業呆壞賬的比率升幅更厲害;彭博的一個分析顯示,這方面的情況已經變得與美國</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2007</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年發生金融危機</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">之前相若。出現系統性危機的話,中央政府救得了救不了,是一大疑問。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">具體方面,人行最近還準備宣布一項做法,批准所有國營商業銀行可以讓還債有困難的企業客戶以自身的股票兌換所欠債務,表示大陸企業呆壞賬問題已經十</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">分嚴重。人行本身的外滙儲備,去年以破紀錄的速度大跌,今年頭兩個月的平均跌勢則更急促;硬通貨大量流出,會削減一旦大陸出現金融危機時政府救市的彈藥。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">因此,穆迪的做法,理由相當充分。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">中國這方面衰了,香港自必為時不遠。果然,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">11</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日,穆迪也調低香港的評級展望至「負面」。穆迪給出的理由,指中港政經聯繫愈來愈緊密(「融合」</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">啦!),中國經濟放緩、金融風險增加,同時削弱香港前景,令香港出口、訪港旅客和銀行對大陸貸款等數據惡化。而且,穆迪還特別提到</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2014</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年中國發表的那</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">份限制「兩制」自治程度的白皮書,顯示香港逐漸失去獨立性,影響決策水平和執行能力。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">穆迪這些對香港的講法,十不離八九,港人耳熟能詳深有同感。然而,特府發言人則認為是穆迪的「純粹猜測和主觀陳述,缺乏理據支持,並且在《基本法》之下,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">無證據顯示內地干預香港事務」。穆迪下調中國政府信用評級展望並給出理由之後,北京大罵穆迪,指其十足荒謬充滿偏見;特府的反應,與北京異曲同工。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">想不到,「中國</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">lie</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">、香港</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">lie</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」,也是成立的。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">還不止經濟方面的。上周末,大陸預防腐敗局副局長劉某表示,香港是大陸貪官把贓款運到外國的重要渠道。形象點說,渠道是腸臟、貪污贓款是糞便的話,香港就成為了中國的屁股眼。九七的前夜,世人眼中光華四射的那顆「東方之珠」,如今呢?<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">練乙錚</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">特約評論員<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:關於「京台高鐵」計劃,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2013</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">5</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日《南早》(中文)已經圖文並茂報道過,連結在:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.nanzao.com/sc/national/14c314d1f05f37e/nei-di-gui-hua-jian-tai-hai-gong-lu" target="_blank">http://www.nanzao.com/sc/nationa ... ian-tai-hai-gong-lu</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">;《環時》</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">9</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日的社評甚有「強國風」,光是文筆語氣便十分值得看,連結在:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2016-03/8674202.html" target="_blank">http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2016-03/8674202.html</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:王夢恕講話見</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日《明報》</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://news.mingpao.com/pns/dailynews/web_tc/article/20160308/s00013/1457373539068" target="_blank">http://news.mingpao.com/pns/dail ... 00013/1457373539068</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:關於日韓隧道、庫頁島</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">—</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">北海道隧道工程計劃的資料,可參見維基百科的有關詞條:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/" target="_blank">https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日韓海底隧道及</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakhalin%E2%80%93Hokkaido_Tunnel#cite_note-sptimes.ru-1" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sa ... e_note-sptimes.ru-1</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">4</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:關於</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AjaHuang</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">黃士傑的故事,可看他的一位同學寫的文章:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.inside.com.tw/2016/03/10/why-do-i-second-alphago" target="_blank">http://www.inside.com.tw/2016/03/10/why-do-i-second-alphago</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。他與</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">D.Silver</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">合寫、發表在頂級科學期刊</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Nature</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的研究論文撮要在:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v529/n7587/full/nature16961.html#contrib-auth" target="_blank">http://www.nature.com/nature/jou ... 1.html#contrib-auth</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">GoogleDeepMind</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">網站在:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="https://www.deepmind.com/index.html" target="_blank">https://www.deepmind.com/index.html</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。這間公司的三位始創人之一的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">DemisHassabis</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的一篇訪問記錄在:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/16/demis-hassabis-artificial-intelligence-deepmind-alphago?CMP=ShareiOSAppOther" target="_blank">http://www.theguardian.com/techn ... MP=ShareiOSAppOther</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">;此文中文譯本在:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.inside.com.tw/2016/02/21/the-superhero-of-artificial-intelligence-can-this-genius-keep-it-in-check" target="_blank">http://www.inside.com.tw/2016/02 ... us-keep-it-in-check</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-2531326180683928982016-03-14T21:55:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:55:11.139-07:00安裕周記﹕問誰領風騷
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 南</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">韓棋手李世石與電腦</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的五局大戰,到星期六已是來到第三場,下筆之時距離開賽還有兩個鐘頭,李世石能否扳回一城,不致在這場「五番碁」比賽連</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">輸三場敗北,是這個星期六令人懸念的一件事情。星期三第一場交手,李世石中盤犯了一個錯誤,被對手抓住機會砍旗拔寨;第二場李卻太過小心謹慎,時間幾乎用</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">光,再丟一局。在互聯網上觀棋的棋友都為李世石打氣,有促狹的更開了一個小玩笑,在</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">facebook</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">貼上帖子,「李師傅,不要跟它拼棋,嘗試切它電路」,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">在人與電腦決戰落後的低氣壓下帶來一絲歡笑聲音。根據「五番碁」安排,先取三局者勝,星期六下午恐怕人心都黏在首爾,一局定勝負,還看今朝。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 世界三大圍棋強國,中國大陸是這次大戰的塘邊鶴,職業棋手排行榜暫列第一的柯潔公開說「</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">贏不了我」;原因是柯曾擊敗李世石,所以可以戰勝</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">電腦對手。若電腦打敗李世石後與柯潔接戰,應該是好戲連場,不過這都是後話。令人納罕的是日本棋壇的沉默,傳媒報道不算鋪天蓋地,也許是沒有日本棋手參</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">戰,那種默然不免讓人覺得有點怵。儘管中韓棋手崛起,人們的目光依然在日本七大圍棋頭銜打轉,由年頭的棋聖,到接續下來的十段,本因坊,碁聖,名人,王</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">座,乃至於年底的天元,這些曾經或現在依然是喜歡下圍棋朋友的焦點。可是在李世石紋秤對座或者柯潔意氣風發之間,日本卻像在另一個時空,遠離地球。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">電腦能否打敗棋王,在</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">IBM</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">電腦「深藍」於一九九七年取勝國際象棋棋王卡斯巴羅夫,客觀上得到第一個證明。到了被認為更複雜的圍棋,經過二十年間的發展,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">人工智能是否有更長足進步,在李世石對戰之後可能得出結論。這裏說「可能」,是因為牽涉李世石是否全力出戰,這並非說李世石保留實力馬虎上陣,而是他有沒</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">有汲取敗仗經驗調整戰略,再次面對熟悉他棋路的陌生對手。毋庸置疑,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">必定像棋手賽前打譜那樣,把所有李世石的棋局輸入,以強大的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">CPU</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">高速</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">運算,從而提出下子方案。當然今天的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">比二十年前的深藍必然大幅提升,有一種說法是</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">可以在運算之外因着棋局大勢作出最有利的佈</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">局,而非一子一石的逐步解構。我不是</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的工程師,無以回應這些說法,不過,若是以李世石的棋譜分析,再根據現場下子作出判斷,這是正常不過的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">做法。問題是,李世石會被</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">牽着鼻子走,抑或他可以反客為主,以新套路把電腦牽着鼻子走。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> <strong>李世石會牽着電腦走?</strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">南韓棋手戰後異軍突起第一人是旅日的趙治勳,上世紀七十年代末八十年代初,日本以及世界棋壇仍然佯倘在木谷實弟子加藤正夫的時代,趙治勳以中盤凌厲搏殺異</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">軍突起,在一九八二年一口氣拿下十段、本因坊及名人三大頭銜,與加藤正夫、大竹英雄三分天下,也為其後多年的「趙治勳</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">——</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">小林光一」年代擘劃各自勢力版</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">圖。這也是另一場棋壇佳話的開始,小林光一是木谷實的關門弟子,木谷實把女兒禮子許配給小林光一,希望師姐照顧好天份極高的師弟,為木谷實道場繼續揚名立</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">萬,趙治勳則是以同門師兄弟的身分與小林光一兩人瓜分天下。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 趙治勳的冒起帶來強悍至今的韓流勢力,韓國棋手不如日本講究華麗佈局的「宇宙流」,也不是中國大陸棋手擅於中盤發力的「中國流」,而是自行其事、日本棋</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">評家所說的「亂戰流」</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">——</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">先把棋盤上的大模樣打個稀巴爛,再將對手的精心佈局揍得體無完膚,依一己主動把棋局撕開四分五裂逐一吞噬。不講究日本式的佈局美</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">學,卻注重實戰勝利,南韓棋風橫掃橫壇,日本中國大陸俱難攖其鋒,曹薰鉉、李昌鎬、徐奉洙這些光聽名字也夠對手頭皮發麻。同一時間,中國文化大革命後的一</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">代如聶衛平及馬曉春等逐一退陣,日本出現青黃不接的困難期,南韓棋手獨霸天下帷幕拉開。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> <strong>韓流興起 </strong></span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日本隱退</span></strong><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">南韓圍棋的興起,不能說與日本沒有關係,至低限度趙治勳出自木谷實門下。可是日本培養不出如南韓年長一代如曹薰鉉及趙治勳的棋手群,更說不上擁有像李昌</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">鎬、劉昌赫以至李世石的新一代棋王族。這裏不涉及國族關係,純以圍棋愛好者角度而論,日本圍棋退下確是莫大損失。論圍棋人口日本一直佔先,日本棋壇更有</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「千萬人口」的說法,即是下圍棋或愛好者,不分專業與業餘,達千萬之眾。龐大巿場構建了巨大無比的空間,光是日本棋院便有數百專業棋手,以出版棋刊或下指</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">導棋賺取日常收入,這才能夠專心致志在棋院打譜覆盤,再到七大頭銜爭取好成績,斬獲巨額獎金。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日本棋壇元老瀨越憲作《圍棋百年》第一卷,指出日本史書有載的第一參考譜是後漢年間,即約公元二百年的孫策對呂範,第二個參考譜才是日本棋手吉祥丸對日蓮</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">上人,時維宋末,比孫策呂範之局晚了大約一千年。即使如此,日本棋風大盛後來居上,到了日本棋院創立,專業棋手可在棋院賺取收入,一般而言是初段月入十</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">圓,二段二十圓,三四段各三十、四十圓。必須指出的是,當年日本大學畢業生也只月入三十圓;豐厚入息帶來厚密棋風,戰力蒸蒸日上。接下來最大的變化,是戰</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">後五十年代經濟起飛帶來的動力。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> <strong>曾經大盛的扶桑圍棋</strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">由於圍棋愛好者達一千萬,戰後日本百廢待興,傳媒尤其是報紙各自推出「新聞棋」,招攬棋手博弈,翌日在報章刊出棋譜,以增銷量。其中,《每日新聞》的本因</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">坊頭銜,當時銷量第一《朝日新聞》的名人頭銜最為引人注目,幾乎是一紙因此風行。如今日本七大圍棋頭銜,依然不脫「新聞棋」傳統,《讀賣新聞》的棋聖獎金</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">最高,四千五百萬日圓;十段是《產經新聞》主辦;碁聖是《靜岡新聞》等十二家報社合辦;王座是《日本經濟新聞》而天元則是《北海道新聞》等三家報社合作。<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">為了爭取讀者,報社各出奇謀,以通俗大報《讀賣新聞》為例,手上王牌是華裔棋聖吳清源,一段頗長時間,《讀賣新聞》專門報道吳清源與各對手的「十盤戰」,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">頗為哄動。<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 巨額獎金帶動圍棋風尚,更能令棋手豐衣足食,參賽有參賽費,勝</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">出則是驚天動地的大獎,由此蓄建的圍棋氛圍,成為異地棋手遠涉重洋到日本的其中一個原因。我們熟悉的吳清源以及六十年代冒出來的林海峰,之後的王立誠及王</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">銘宛,俱是人們熟悉的華裔棋手。其中不乏美談,如林海峰等已在日本生活逾半世紀,領的仍是中華民國護照,一口國語從未走音變調。然而這只是水滴的一角,更</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">巨大的作用是日本棋壇藉好手來投,互相砥礪出一波又一波的精英,孕育日本棋手的風格,早如三十年代吳清源與木谷實在信州閉關十個月創出「新布石法」;五六</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">十年代先後出現高川格及坂田榮男,其中坂田榮男棋風銳利,人稱「剃刀」,把七大名銜全數包辦。之後是七十年代武宮正樹的宇宙流,不重邊而重中央,儼如一代</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">宗師。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 日本棋運在九十年代開始快速下墮,這客觀上既有中國大陸及南韓棋手</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的上升,也有日本棋手從追求實戰勝利轉向尋求完美棋譜的層次出發,把黑白子的勝負置於度外。這是其中一個原因。另是日本人口老化,圍棋人口漸次減少,青少</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年不願把時光都磨磳在棋盤而放棄其他。這與中國大陸通過體校培養少年棋手,南韓以國策推動圍棋振興國譽有所不同;一方是轉為消閒及追求美感的心靈補足,另</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">兩方則是舉國體制的傾注心力,最後出來的結果是日本棋手在國際賽顯得慵懨了一些,不如中韓高手的拳拳到肉。也許日本對今天種種感到太過熟悉,因為在五六十</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年代南韓仍在獨裁統治、中國大陸文革狂熱不能抽身,日本當時已然經歷今天中韓的勝境。曾經滄海難為水,今天的日本難以重塑昔日的自己。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> <strong>電腦愚魯 </strong></span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">人心難測</span></strong><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">說回李世石對</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">AlphaGo</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">之戰,興許這是一家之見的狹隘,我總覺得如果李世石對抗電腦時仍是一貫以來的李世石棋風,在</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">CPU</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">之前再次敗陣不足為奇。如前</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">所說,李世石棋路早在電腦計算之中,然則當李世石不以自己所長棋路出手,會否也是電腦計算之內,這是一個大大的問號,也是對人工智能的挑戰</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">——</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">坐在對面的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">是另一個心智皆迥異的李世石,結果難料。人心最難測,六十年代,美國最大智囊蘭德公司(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">RAND</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">)以電腦推算,最終計出美軍將會打勝越戰。這場浴血戰的結</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">果已經寫在歷史牆上,是美國慘敗收場;在虛擬與現實之間,沒有必然,人生如棋,俱皆如此。<br />
</span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-24288699326357219772016-03-14T21:54:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:54:33.655-07:00周日話題﹕假如女兒沒有跳下去……<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">文、圖﹕陳嘉文</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「他們在生的父</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">母,往後要承受的痛苦,不是一兩天的事,是一輩子,一輩子活在自責之中。」七年前,同樣是三月天,曾是會考狀元的失聰女教師李菁跳樓自殺,只留下一紙遺</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">書。自此,她的父親李光興,活在黑暗的悲慘世界中,從崩潰,到撕裂,到萬念俱灰,到終生自責,二千五百多天以來,每天背負巨大痛苦。「我女在遺書裏說,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">『對最疼愛我的父親,我只有憎恨和恐懼』。孩子真的會這樣說。就是因為我們做父母的,不理解孩子的內心世界。我們希望她好,但我們用錯了方法。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">花白了頭髮的李光興,黃昏的家沒有把燈亮起,說話低沉、緩慢。在李菁自殺後,李光興一直反覆閱讀女兒生前的網</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">誌,開始學習電腦,用爸爸的名義繼續把網誌寫下去,當是給女兒的信;五年後,他在悲痛中梳理對女兒的悔疚與思念,寫成《假如女兒沒有跳下去》。這次訪問前</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">不久,李光興剛替女兒搬了新家,「已經七年嘛,要搬去住金塔位了」。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">李光興有三個女兒,他不諱言,畢生的愛都給了二女兒李菁。因為一窮二</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">白,李光興與妻子誕下兩個女兒後,都把她們送回鄉下養大,只是,李菁幼年時一次發燒導致失聰。「大概是因為,對她,我們覺得虧欠了。」他溺愛李菁,呵護備</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">至,十多歲被送進廣州訓練才學怎樣搣橙洗衣服。他嚴教李菁,怕她長大後無法自力更生,女兒在學校無法理解老師的講解,李光興在家親自再教;女兒因為聽不到</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而默書零分,李光興便教她背默,成為比健聽同學還名列前茅的一百分學生。一九九九年,會考放榜,李菁第一次登上報紙,她考獲兩優三良成績,是香港有史以來</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">失聰學生的最佳成績。兩年後,她代表香港出戰國際象棋比賽,再次被傳媒追訪。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">可是,本來被包裝成自強不息的故事,傳頌不過九年,在二零零八</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年以悲劇寫成結局,反差之大,讓李菁再次登上頭條。若傳媒總十年如一日地把自殺事件原因簡單化,那麼李菁之死的罪魁禍首該是社會對聾人的歧視</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">——</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">李菁畢業</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">後,拿着輝煌的履歷表,求職過百次,僱主看見李菁戴着助聽器,打發她走,快餐店經理看到她的履歷,又嫌她學歷太高。李光興說,李菁最後在大學找到助教一</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">職,但工作不愉快,後來在收拾遺物時,找到女兒在履歷表上寫上「垃圾」兩個大字。幾經艱苦培育女兒成才,千里馬卻遇不到伯樂,考了好成績以後,人生路才是</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">漫長。</span></span><br />
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李菁生前在履歷表上寫上「垃圾」兩個大字。(一丁文代出版社提供<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">但七年過後,李光興在訪問中,其實在自責沒好好了解過孩子的內心世界。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">在女兒死後,李光興一整年無法入睡,晚上總身體</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">發熱冒汗,好幾次想自殺。但他在衝動之時,想到家人,「已走了一個,如果我也走了,他們會好痛苦」。於是,他打電話求助,最後時任勞福局長張建宗派來兩個</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">社工,認為他該求診。「我說我沒有病,看什麼醫生?我只是唔開心,我只要求找個心理醫生,跟我傾下偈、紓緩下便好。但兩個社工當日就在這裏勸了我一小</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">時。」最後,李光興被勸服,與社工從愛民邨寓所走到伊利沙伯醫院,醫生本來要他住院一星期,但他堅持寧願回家吃藥。失眠一年後,他終於沒冒汗,入睡了。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「我當時對抑鬱症毫不認識,以為開心不開心這回事,沒藥醫。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">因為自己終於經歷過,知道抑鬱可以如何消磨人的意志,也知道有藥可以讓黑暗變</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">光明,他回想女兒,才知道女兒當時也是死於抑鬱。「那時候,她常常哭得厲害、哭至失控,常說『爸爸媽媽我好驚』。她本來不想死,她曾經說想自殺,她曾到防</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">止自殺的組織求助過。可惜當時沒有人看出她有病,該看醫生,如果有人告訴我們這種病,或許她不用走這條路。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">李光興自責,自己當時不相信女兒真會自殺。「我們不相信,因為我們從小至大都在很艱苦的環境之下長大,食唔飽、著唔暖,但我們都活得過。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">李</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">光興在內地長大,父親是國民黨軍人,在李光興還小時,常被捉去批鬥,一家八口只吃掌心大小的榨菜送飯當一餐。他在十歲時,曾經提議全家到附近的水庫自殺,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">但被父母狠狠罵了一頓,說人多艱苦都要活。自己曾經咬緊牙關捱過了,但上一代面對逆境的方法,原來未必能用在自己的下一代。「我們這一代的思想,覺得那麼</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">艱苦都活過了,在香港有這麼好的環境、有這麼多選擇,為什麼會想自殺?沒可能。我一直到現在都很後悔,為什麼自己有這種思維。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">這個學年,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">李光興的悔疚與悲苦,在二十多個家庭重複着。「香港社會突然有咁多後生仔走咗,好似形成了一種風氣,是非常不幸。」李光興說,如果父母可以早一點知道,或</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">許可以做些事及時挽救。「第一,你知道細路有這念頭,首先要分析他是否有抑鬱、受很大壓力,要想辦法開解、帶他看醫生。有藥可以幫助的。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">又</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">如果,孩子知道父母往後的日子如何萬念俱灰,他們或許不忍心走這條路。七年前那一天的事,李光興至今每次想起,想起女兒在跳下去前掙扎徘徊三小時,也覺得</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">心像被撕裂一樣。「十時許,早餐後,她說去看醫生,直至一時多,我在大堂看到三個警察,他們拿着李菁的身分證和遺物,問街坊認不認識她。我說,那是我女</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">兒。」回到寓所,警察才把噩耗告訴他。「我個腦,一片空白,個心翳住,想暈想暈,心裏有一道氣吐不出來。隔了一會,才哇一聲喊出來,崩潰了。那種撕裂感,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">像有一萬支箭,穿過你心。」往後七年,李光興背負着痛苦,勇敢地為家人活下去。但自責是一生的。「那種自責,非語言能表達,為何我當時不相信她說想自殺?<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">為什麼當時不發現這問題、挽救她?為什麼上天給我聰明的女兒,又帶走她?」可是,孩子還小,在承受巨大壓力之時,當連自己也顧不了,怎有餘力能顧及身邊的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">人?「人到了萬念俱灰時,那種黑暗會包圍你所有思維,腦裏沒有光,只有黑暗。我經歷抑鬱的日子,理智沒有了,被負面情緒吞噬,自己很辛苦,不懂得想別</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">人。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而且,有時候,孩子承受的壓力,其實源自父母。在無法承受之時,在選擇用最極端徹底的方法之前,人或許會先選擇厭倦、憎恨、遠離,這</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">並不是孩子不懂事或心胸狹隘,而是自然產生的自我保護方式,也是給旁人的警示。「就是因為我們做父母的,不理解孩子的內心世界。」李菁遺書的那一句,李光</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">興說就像判了他死刑一樣難受,「但這同時是給其他父母的當頭棒喝,在你們耳邊敲響警鐘。你把畢生精力、所有的愛,都放在孩子身上,但最後換來這句話,我們</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">到底做錯了什麼?這真的要反思。」</span></span><br />
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<img alt="" border="0" height="566" src="http://fs.mingpao.com/pns/20160313/s00125/3811af67beee97c691757a3112a8784b.jpg" width="376" />混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-73749591789253748182016-03-14T21:53:00.000-07:002016-03-14T21:53:00.355-07:00林行止: 沒有條件硬碰硬 避免危機血成河<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">一、</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">鄧小平當年曾禁止一些不在其位的官員批評、指點香港事務;如今來港說三道四指點香江的,是否奉中央意旨,值得深究。前新華社香港分社副社長張浚生去周日接</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">受有線電視訪問就香港現狀發表意見,意識形態「回到從前」,與現實完全脫節,簡直不知所云;他認為「立法會要配合政府施政」,除了展示他對香港制度的無</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">知,更是誤把立法會當為人大或政協,既暴露內地政壇上點綴着不少花瓶,還令這些天天在北京出席兩會的「港區代表」的發言及「答記者問」顯得多麼遠離人間煙</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">火,所有一切,反映的僅是官方意見,「配合政府施政」的目標已達,卻漠視了廣大港人的意願!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">作為一個自由社會,香港沒有權威言論遑論一言堂,那意味人多聲雜,人人有話說,社會的方方面面,不論經濟盛衰,因此都有這樣那樣的問題;這些問題,因為歷</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">屆特區政府各有缺失,不僅令問題愈來愈多,有些還衍變為足以困擾政府有效管治的大難題,而大難題已具體反映在街頭活動及投票站上。遠的且不去說,二月八日</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">旺角騷亂與同月二十八日立法會新界東議席補選,均具體地以肢體語言和選票,展現了相當部分港人對特區政府施政的不滿。至於議會的拉布,是議員應享的權利!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">議會拉布政府怎麼辦?答案很簡單,只要當局推出的政策比較正面地回應大眾的訴求,拉布便會自然消失。正如主管香港事務的全國人大委員長張德江所說,港人智</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">商甚高,什麼問題不能解決?可惜有關當局唯我獨尊,以為有北京支持便可肆意而為,罔顧民情民意,反而有意「以暴易暴」,要蠻幹平亂,令不少港人不忿更起而</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">抗爭,才讓香港的管治困難有一發不可收拾之勢!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">北京迄今仍口口聲聲說落實「一國兩制」的有關承諾,但其對「港人治港」、「五十年不變」等等的解讀,顯然與本港建制以外各界人士頗有差異,姑勿論誰是誰</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">非,港人的不滿已不限於言文,這對香港的社會和諧及政府的有效管治有負面影響,不言而喻。香港的社會問題已引起國際關注,近日的「銅鑼灣書店五子潛行北上</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">投案」以及由五個故事串成的電影《十年》(後天三月十日在日本上映,看去周《經濟學人》的力捧,《十年》在歐美上映是遲早的事),將令西方輿論站在建制的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">對立面,北京聲譽有損,不在話下。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">二、</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">這種政治氣氛下,選民把選票投給代表激進勇武的本土派政治團體外,不滿建制的街頭抗爭活動會愈演愈烈,高喊香港獨立、建國這類虛幻口號亦響徹雲霄。為了平</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">息這股令北京難堪的逆流,當局竟然不從檢討施政缺失出發,而是主張以粗暴的警力甚至軍力血腥鎮壓,這些武力派認為,示威事件中有人傷亡,雖會令香港情況亂</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">上加亂,但「大亂才能大治」。這種主張是假設港人計算機會成本後,會在武力前跪低求饒!以常理度之,這種推斷有其道理,然而,目前經濟環境不錯和讀飽書的</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年輕一代,憂慮擔心的是他們最珍惜的自由會逐步被北京剝奪,早把死生置諸度外!血腥鎮壓除非出現「傷亡枕藉」如六四天安門事件的場面,恐難收效。但問題</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">是,北京值得這樣做嗎?筆者的答案是絕對不值得!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">一句話,在前海格局未成即未能吸引外資大規模投入之前,北京粗暴地對付香港反對派,在經濟上必受重創,這是犯不着的。中國經濟絕對崛興,惟香港仍有重大利用價值,除了「融資」,香港尚是內地既得利益階層「走資」的最佳跳板!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">說前海離能夠取代香港成為地區性金融中心之路尚遠,筆者未見任何數據,只是從滙豐遷冊不考慮前海及內地官商不去前海買地建高樓而選擇高價在香港置業</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">買地上的推論,此推論來自商界人士的具體行動,因此準確度不低。當初滙豐考慮把註冊地遷出倫敦時,筆者以為這是前海的最大機會</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">滙豐在前海註冊,豈非是</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">前海有資格成為金融中心的最佳宣傳;可惜滙豐在請教「高明」後不作此圖(料滙豐數名親中的董事亦起不了作用),連香港亦不回</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。換句話說,前海不成氣候</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而香港的北風凜冽。在這種客觀條件下,任何令「外部勢力」感到香港的自由正在被腐蝕的舉措,北京都要慎思。北京千萬不可誤信本地「奪權派」的讕言,以武力</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">迫使香港趨於無聲的和諧。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">有說中國經濟體積龐大(僅次於美國的世界第二大),大部分國家與中國有深淺不一的經濟關係,看在經濟利益份上,假如北京對香港動粗以至造成人命傷亡,她們</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">充其量只會在言文上「譴責」而不會採取進一步行動(如當年「六四風波」後)即生意如常進行。這是天大的誤解,別說目前西方有若干處心積慮找機會壓制中國</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">(畢竟是政治價值和決策過程完全不同的非我族類)的政客,可能乘機發難,把圍堵中國的行動升級,雖然中國早有妥當部署,兵來將擋、水來土掩,沒什麼大不</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">了;但如此大事周章,不利經濟發展,因此可免則免</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。就說沒有這類政治對抗,在經濟上肯定麻煩未了,雖然外國政府不會「出手」,但與中國有經濟往來</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的,除了極少數極權國家,其餘均為私人企業(中國官員和國企主管外訪時簽訂的商業合同,對手十之八九是私企負責人),它們必須對股東負責及俯從顧客(消費</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">者)的要求,當香港發生「血腥鎮壓」場景時,你以為這些股東和顧客不會趁機藉反對公司與「暴政」做生意以展示其並非眼中只有金錢、而是為公義不惜放棄財富</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的心地善良、有良知、懷「大愛」的世界公民</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">!?</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">面對股東和顧客的壓力,公司管理層會怎樣取捨,已不必細說了。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">一句話,以當前的國際情勢,北京應着特區政府致力與非建制派建立新的合作關係,特區政府及「官方智囊」必須馬上放棄有騷亂便上綱上線為武力鎮壓張本的思維!至於什麼人才最適合與建制外(和內)就合作搞好香港溝通的人選,相信智商不下於港人的京官,早已心中有數</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">──</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">那位被人民「嬲嬲」世界之冠的現任行政長官(國際媒體解釋何以這麼多港人不喜歡他,間接令其失序的管治危機公諸於世),顯然不是最佳之選!</span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-62018272136224905962016-03-14T21:52:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:52:16.941-07:00《墓碑》作者楊繼繩:真相可衝破銅牆鐵壁 記者就是真相的保衛者<br />
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<blockquote>
編按:揭露六十年代大饑荒真相《墓碑》作者、著名內地記者楊繼繩,被中共當局禁止出境,無法前往美國哈佛大學領獎。原本向楊繼繩頒獎的哈佛大學尼曼學會今日刊出楊繼繩原來發表的<a href="http://41lscp16wiqd3klpnn1z0t2a.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Yang-Lyons-speech-CN2.pdf" target="_blank">演講辭</a>。<br />
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楊繼繩乃於去年12月獲哈佛大學頒發「路易斯.里昂斯新聞良知與氣節獎」(Louis M. Lyons Award for Conscience
and Integrity in
Journalism),表揚他報道大饑荒此「20世紀最慘重人道災難」的貢獻。楊原定於昨晚前往美國領獎,但楊向《紐約時報》表示,他的前僱主新華社派
員與他見面,告知他被禁前往哈佛領獎。<br />
</blockquote>
【文:楊繼繩】<br />
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感謝評委會將2016年度的新聞良知與正義獎授給我。良知與正義這兩個詞的份量很重,加在我身上我承受不起。我只能當作對我的激勵和鞭策。 <br />
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尼曼人都是傑出的記者。我是很熱愛記者這個職業的。我在這個崗位上摔打四十多年,據我的體驗和觀察,我是這樣評價記者這個職業的:<br />
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這是一個卑鄙的職業,這個職業可以混淆是非,顛倒黑白,製造彌天大謊,欺騙億萬受眾;這是一個崇高的職業,這個職業可以針砭時弊、揭露黑暗、鞭撻邪惡、為民請命,擔起社會良心的重責。<br />
這是一個平庸的職業,迴避矛盾,不問是非,明哲保身,甘當權勢的喉舌;這是一個神聖的職業,胸懷天下,思慮千載,批評時政,監督政府,溝通社會,使媒體成為立法、司法、行政之外的第四權力。<br />
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這是一個淺薄的職業,只要能夠寫出通順的記敘文,不需要多少學識,不需要卓越的見解,聽話順從,就能如魚得水;這是一個深不可測的職業,記者不是專業學
者,他需要從整體上研究社會、把握社會,無論有多麼淵博的學識、有多麼卓越的洞察力,在複雜多變的社會面前,都會感到學力不足,力不從心。<br />
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這是一個舒適而安全的職業,出入於宮闕樓台,行走於權力中樞,燈紅酒綠的招待會、歌舞昇平的慶典,訪大官,見要人,春風得意,風光無限。如果用文章與權勢
投桃報李,今日的書生可能是明日的高官,今日窮酸可能是明日的富豪;這是一個艱難而危險的職業,且不談穿梭於槍林彈雨中的戰地記者,就是在和平環境中,調
查研究,探求真相,跋山涉水,阻力重重,除暴揭黑,千難萬險。一旦觸及到權勢集團的痛處,不測之禍從天而降。<br />
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是卑鄙還是崇高、是平庸還是神聖、是淺薄還是高深,在於從業者本人的良知、人格和價值取向。真正的職業記者會選擇崇高、神聖、深刻、兇險,鄙視和遠離卑鄙、平庸、淺薄、舒適。<br />
然而,在卑鄙與崇高、平庸與神聖之間,沒有鴻溝、沒有高牆,黑白之道,全憑自己把握。如果一腳踏進了黑道,就會被釘在歷史的恥辱柱上,自己寫的白紙黑字,
是永遠抹不掉的證據。「卑鄙是卑鄙者的通行證,高尚是高尚者的墓志銘」這條黑色定律在記者職場十分盛行。要不被這一黑律逼向卑鄙之路,就得無所畏懼,勇於
獻身。<br />
這也是我對新聞良知與正義的理解。<br />
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要當一名堅持良知與正義的記者是有風險的。我在給新聞專業學生講課時傳授了一個避險秘訣:「一無所求,二無所懼,自立於天地之間。」無所求,就是不求陞
官、發財;無所懼,就是檢點自己的行為,不留「辮子」被人抓;不依附權貴、靠自己的人格和專業獨立於世。有了這三條,風險就小多了。<br />
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改革開放以來,中國出現了很多堅持良知與正義的記者。在巨大的阻力面前,他們報導真相,鞭撻邪惡,推動着中國社會前進。他們沒有出席今天的盛會,應當分享這個盛會給予的榮譽。<br />
退休了,不能做新聞記者了,我就當「舊聞記者」——從事歷史寫作。昨日的新聞是今日的歷史。新聞和歷史的共同點就是信,即真實可信。信,是新聞和歷史的生
命。中國史家歷來重視史德:忠於史實,善惡必書,書必直言。以直書為己任,以曲筆為恥辱的史家,幾乎代有其人。為保持史家的節操,許多人不惜以生命為代
價。在中國史家的精神影響下,我記錄了我所經歷的重大事件:大饑荒,文化大革命,改革開放。我們不僅要記住美好,也要記住罪惡,不僅要記住光明,也要記住
黑暗。讓人們記住人禍、黑暗和罪惡,是為了今後遠離人禍、黑暗和罪惡。《墓碑》這本書記錄了一場持續數年的慘烈人禍。雖然它只能在香港出版,是大陸的禁
書,但是,追求真相的人們,通過種種渠道、種種方式,在大陸廣為傳播,從中原腹地到雲貴高原到新疆邊塞,都不時有盜版《墓碑》銷售。來自全國各地的大量讀
者來信,給我以我堅定而熱情地支持。這說明,真相有強大的穿透力,它可以衝破行政權力構築的銅牆鐵壁!<br />
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真相是威力強大的炸彈,它會將謊言炸得粉碎;真相是夜空的燈塔,它會照亮前進的道路;真相是檢驗真理的試金石,沒有真相就沒有真理。<br />
記者,就是真相的記錄者、挖掘者和保衛者。<br />
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最後,讓我和大家一起,為記者職業祈願:願良知和正義的陽光照亮千萬個記者、作家的書桌!願更多的作品喚醒人類的良知,讓正義之光普照地球的每一個角落!混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-54405702808158244702016-03-14T21:51:00.001-07:002016-03-14T21:51:25.801-07:00【讀書好×果籽】繁簡粵普之爭<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">撰文:劉細良</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><br />
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《正字典:辨字正詞指南》一書選了470多組大眾常錯、易混淆的字詞入書,並分3種檢字法(部首、漢語拼音、粵語拼音),方便讀者查閱。<br />
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最近香港就繁簡之爭,鬧到開巷,連共產黨媒也插上一腳,指香港有人借機興風作浪,殊不知建制大佬曾鈺成主席也公開撰文力撐繁體,又指出以粵語的古音來唸唐詩宋詞古文才有味道,一時間本土聲勢大振。 <br />
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最近因雜誌的校對工作,又再見到了吳順忠先生,我們相識於青山道的《壹週刊》辦公室,他是文字編輯部的領班。由於《壹週刊》的特色是用粵語入文,很多時當
文字校對稿送回來後,見到吳先生校正,才恍然大悟,有一次寫黑幫故事,文稿上寫道:「警方掃場後砵蘭街『水靜河飛』」,吳先生刪改後在旁邊寫上「水盡鵝
飛」。星期二夜晚是周刊最趕稿之時,經過校對部時在走廊被他叫住,然後細心解說指「水靜河飛」是積非成是,他一再問我:「水靜了,條河又點樣飛走呢?水乾
了鵝飛走才合理嘛。」又一次寫到兩大幫派「劍拔弩張」,回來校對稿寫上「箭拔弩張」,那一刻才想到這寫法合理得多。當時雖然是吃文字這行飯,但每天心思就
放在如何應付肥佬黎的「鋤書會」,對於吳先生的教導,只視之為喋喋不休的學究。 <br />
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<strong>本木凝聚力全因粵語 </strong>
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後來收到他送來作品《吳順忠詩文薈蕞》,開始對吳先生瞭解多一點。他畢業於廣西師大,是魯迅弟子左聯成員陳白曙的學生,1979年來港,認識了舒巷城,舒
告誡他不要拿寫作做謀生工具,「在香港,煑字不能療飢,賣文難以餬口。興趣要有職業的支持。」吳先生此後三十年便在中文字打滾。香港報章一直是文字臥虎藏
龍地,《華僑日報》有鄭家鎮硂劉以鬯在《快報》、《星島週報》,《東方日報》有梁小中。<br />
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吳先生創作則以傳統詩文為主,曾賦詩〈元代宋祚感言〉一首:詩過詞興曲盛行,蒙人胡語主燕京,改朝換代循天道,爭奈中原失入聲。此詩正正解答了曾鈺成認為
用粵語唸唐詩宋詞韻文特別爽的原由。作者表示自元朝起,北方話失去了入聲,此後明清與唐宋音相去益遠,能繼承唐宋詩詞格律者日稀,粵語唸唐詩宋詞更有味道
是因為保留了入聲,符合唐格律詩對平仄的要求,粵語唸出來才會平仄分明,十分舒暢,而普通話是沒有入聲。女真、契丹、蒙、羌等語言影響漢語,令元代起中原
不再有入聲字,北方話就是今天普通話。吳先生解釋入聲字在英文也有,如cop、sit、wood,尾音只有囗形而不發音,如wood似廣東話的「活」,但
若普通話發音,便是兩個字「伍德」,就如Beckham廣東話音譯「碧咸」,在普通話變成「貝克漢姆」。他認為香港一百五十多年來粵語是英語之外另一官方
語言,因此不至全盤「英」化,也不會被「清」化,香港人本土凝聚力也全因粵語。<br />
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今天香港文人辦報早已消失,不少報刊文字編輯也變了由記者兼任,老報人買少見少,吳先生退休後曾經中風,但仍完成了集一生文字功夫的《正字典》,以他三十
多年觀察,輯錄香港人常錯及混淆的字詞,這可視為保育繁體字的基礎工作。有時會想,幸好繁簡及普教中之爭,才喚醒新一代對繁體及粵語文化的重視。<br />
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《吳順忠詩文薈蕞》收集了他的詩詞及散文,當中也旁及粵語及音韻。<br />
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《花樣年華》中梁朝偉飾演的周慕雲,據說是以在報館工作的劉以鬯為角色藍本,而香港本土文化的發展與南來文人投身文字工作有關。混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-3333614029566891442016-03-14T21:50:00.001-07:002016-03-14T21:50:30.347-07:00古德明: 報 應
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">二月二十二日,立法會福利事務委員會舉辦公聽會,市民關穎怡慷慨陳詞:「當今一班狗官,惡於強盜。大白象工程花幾千億元還說不足,民生事宜則花一元都嫌太多。小心啊,世界上是有報應的。」這番話,贏得無數掌聲,只是那掌聲之中,分明有一絲悲涼。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「報應」二字,表達的是無可奈何。明知報應之無有,強謂之有,無非自我慰藉。秦始皇焚書坑儒,享盡天年;毛澤東殺人如麻,壽終正寢;岳飛盡忠報國,冤死棘寺;楊繼盛十奏權姦,慘遭棄市。善惡的「報應」,史書寫得很清楚。或曰報應會「見於來世」,但來世未免太過髣髴。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">四</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年前,梁振英「競選」行政長官期間,政客劉夢熊為他奔走呼號,一心以為梁振英登上大位之後,他就可借力扶搖,不料反遭梁振英狼噬,被判處入獄,在法庭高</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">喊:「梁振英,善有善報,惡有惡報;若還不報,時辰未到!」有心人當聽到法庭上回音四起,但那是梁振英的聲音:「哈哈哈!」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">明朝傳奇《精忠旗》第二十四折秦檜畫柑東窗謀殺岳飛,得意洋洋說:「常言善惡報應,都是妄談。似我今日這樣作呵,便是活活閻羅,那怕你因和果。」劇作家說出了歷代害民賊的心聲。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">什麼時候,中國小民才可以把「報應」化作選票,化作法律,以懲處害民之賊?我延頸企踵,眼穿不見。</span><br />
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</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB; font-size: large;">古德明</span><span style="font-family: &quot; font-size: large;">: </span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB; font-size: large;">香港城邦論</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">香港本土派有個國師陳雲,所著《城邦論》據說已成為香港建國論者的聖經,或問我有沒有讀過,我說:「有時間,不如重讀《山海經》、《西遊記》,即使荒誕,卻饒趣味,讀後更不必洗眼。」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">香港建國論者,常以香港、臺灣兩地獨立運動相提並論,自甘閉目成盲,殊不知兩地根本不可同日而語。軍事上,臺灣有全球第十三強的軍隊可用,有臺海天塹可守,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">有美日援助可倚,香港則三者皆無;民生上,臺灣飲食器用,無一不可自給,香港則無一不靠入口。且不說中共要揮軍佔領香港,簡直不費吹灰之力,就是截斷水</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">源,香港不出一個月,就要內亂,本土派憑什麼北拒中共,以城為邦。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而臺灣即使完全具備國家規模,民進黨更以獨立為宗旨,但民進黨主宰臺灣多</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年,至今未敢宣布臺灣獨立。香港建國條件不及臺灣百分之一,本土派現在卻要建國,大有「能臺灣所不能」氣概。然則與其夢遊香港本土派的城邦,我不如神馳於</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">《山海經》的三首國。三首國民各有三個腦袋,香港邦民則一個腦袋都沒有。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">臺灣新當選立法委員林昶佐說:「香港、臺灣,可以互相啟發。香港朋友請不要感到孤單,全世界進步力量都和你們站在一起。」這話十分動聽,但雨傘運動期間,全世界進步力量不知那裏去了。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">激昂慷慨冠冕堂皇的話,香港邦民固然愛聽,卻未必是「打倒共產黨」的辦法吧。</span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-48276171376247333962016-03-14T21:49:00.002-07:002016-03-14T21:49:47.550-07:00練乙錚: 田二少磚掟梁特 北大人忽然放軟
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">一年一度的兩會大戲,今年港人最愛看的,不是《</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">100</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">毛》說的什麼「一戴一露」、香港機遇,因為大家對「西部大開發」的空炮記憶猶新;也不是李克強講的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">增幅「見</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">6</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」,反正每年終了的官方數字與年初定的目標不差毫釐,準得太逼真,而是京官怎麼看待香港發生的「魚蛋革命」和新出現的港獨思潮,因為那都</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">與特首梁振英的管治前途息息相關;其次就是中央對台灣</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月大選結果、民進黨全面執政的取態,因為後者間接牽動港人心中複雜的大中華意識。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">田二少:磚掟梁特第一人</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「魚革」發生後,梁特立即把事件定性為「暴亂」,其後港警更以「暴動罪」起訴本土民主前線的兩位領袖人物。不料,上周末的兩會上,人大委員長和主港事的京</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">官卻都輕描淡寫,認為「事件不足為怪」、「不要看得太重要」,不僅替事件降溫、定調為「騷亂」而不是「暴亂」更不是「暴動」,還意有所指強調「『一國兩</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">制』不走樣」,並且說明白那是「國家需要」,姿態明顯放軟。說時遲、那時快,未待梁特及其粉絲譚慧珠等人扭軚,突擊的磚頭已經朝他飛擲!<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">周一,同在人民大會堂的一個會議裏,田二少在領導面前發難,詞鋒犀利勇武,直指梁氏要害:「旺角騷亂與梁振英的管治並非毫無關係」、「特首愈強硬,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">社會愈撕裂」、「發生流血衝突,並不是政府理念政策出錯,而是管治手法須檢討」、「香港是個發達成熟的城市,市民難以接受強硬管治作風」、「任何人做特</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">首,必須明白硬碰硬徒令社會更形分化」</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">伴君如伴虎,在領導面前察顏觀色如喪考妣的本領固須爐火純青,但轉身對付偶有閃失的「自己人」,出撒手鐧更要像響尾蛇般快、準、狠。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">如此聲聲指摘特首管治手法強硬撕裂社會,市民乍聽,恐怕還會以為二少所屬的新民黨是一個主張懷柔的政黨;殊不知,旺角事件發生後,第一個站出來批評對年輕</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">人鎮壓不力的,卻正正是當年硬推</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">23</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">條立法的現新民黨主席葉劉淑儀(田為該黨常務副主席)。葉劉當日不僅為在旺角開槍的員警開脫辯護,還說「旺角事件源於</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">佔中之後法庭對年輕示威者的裁決太輕」,更提議「判刑時要具阻嚇力,不要讓年輕人愈發放肆」。沒想到,一向為虎作倀的尾巴黨,見勢不對轉臉就變,把原來對</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">法庭的過軟指控,一變而成為對梁特管治手法過硬的攻擊,真是靈活得令人嘆為觀止【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">中央為何「變軟」?</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「魚革」發生後,中聯辦張曉明馬上聲色俱厲:「旺角暴亂與港獨只有一步之遙,要警惕參與暴動的激進分離組織發展下去會變成城市恐怖組織,要依法處理,不可</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">縱容。」這與人大張德江、港澳辦王光亞的最新說法大不同,乃不爭的事實;但變化之大,不僅一般港人感到意外,就是有幾十年「經常跟中央保持一致」的豐富經</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">驗因而非常善變的當權左派,也覺得十分尷尬,例如昨天《明報》刊登一位名家的評論,便是這樣抱怨:<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「中央官員時而唱紅臉,時而唱黑臉,對於那些要緊跟中央的人來說,是十分尷尬的事。只能希望紅臉和黑臉出場順序有個規律,而且在過門曲調上有所暗示;否則,就會造成不知道『唱的是哪一齣』的局面」【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">真是肺腑之言。不過,中央要變臉,並不是沒有先兆。大家記得最近關於台灣的例子。去年秋,台灣大選活動開始升溫,民進黨蔡英文不同意國民黨說有的「九二共</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">識、一中各表」,遑論接受大陸提的「兩岸同屬一個中國」的「九二共識加強版」;於是,習大大開腔:「不承認『九二共識』的話,兩岸關係地動山搖。」可是,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">到蔡英文當選總統、民進黨在立法院「單獨過半」之後,大陸明顯軟化,改口說「對台政策無論哪個黨執政都一樣」;北京外長王毅在美國的另外一些軟性言論,更</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">令不少人有「大陸是否接受中華民國憲法意義上的『一中』」的善意猜測。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">總之,就是沒有「地動山搖」。這與今次大陸就香港發生的「魚蛋革命」前後態度硬軟不一,無疑是一致的。北京如此在港台事務上「前倨後恭」,起碼有三個不同</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">但互相關連的原因;頭一個最重要,就是港台年輕世代同樣表了態,對上一代的什麼「共識」、「回歸」,通通不買賬,大陸不得不另謀對策。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">反統一島嶼天光、拒回歸命運自決</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">無獨有偶,香港和台灣社會近兩年各自出現一股全新政治氣候,都是年輕人行動起來的結果。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">在台灣,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2014</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年春天發生「太陽花學運」,年輕人佔領了立法院,煞住執政國民黨快要強行通過的《兩岸服務貿易協議》;結果,「島嶼天光」。在香港,同年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">9</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月發生的佔領運動以及今年大年初夜發生的「魚蛋革命」,在爭取民主普選眼看要失敗的同時,鏗鏘有力地提出了「命運自決」的政治綱領,直言</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2047</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">的抉擇</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">主體就是香港人自己。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">對比老一輩的畏縮與犬儒,港台年輕人這種不惜魚死網破、予及汝皆亡的「攬炒」氣概,北京看儍了眼。本來,以大陸專制政權擁有的無限暴力鎮壓資源和殺人經驗,港台兩地區區一千幾百個黃毛小子怎須放在眼內乃至要放軟身段?但世事從來都不是那麼簡單。</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><br />
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1948</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年,當時的南斯拉夫總統鐵托因為要走自己的發展道路,不惜與強大的蘇聯決裂,斯大林無明火起,覺得這個小小南斯拉夫太斗膽,竟敢跟老子抬槓,於是</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">口出狂言:「我只要彈一下么指你這個鐵托就完啦!」(《克魯曉夫回憶錄》裏說的)。奇怪的是,斯大林一直到死都拿鐵托沒辦法。同樣,港陸「《環時》派」極</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">端分子看着港台年輕人造反,么指大動口誅筆伐發誓賭咒,中央卻不硬反軟,非常沒趣,原因是這批人完全「不接地氣」。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">中共口喊民族大義,要台灣統一要香港回歸,說穿了無非是最終要佔有港台這兩處福地寶島的所有資產和其上的會創富的人民。為此,她已經逐步把手伸進港台兩</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">地,引入紅色資本(「公家」錢和私己錢),而且不斷向兩地殖民、統戰,投入的人力物力非常巨大,目的就是要在兩地分別建立既有當地原有經濟社會優越性而政</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">治上又可操控自如的混種體制理想國。如此,當地人,特別是當地年輕人即未來社會創富的主力,竟然要跟她來一個魚死網破,她要是接招陪着「攬炒」,機會成本</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">比自覺前途灰暗不拚死一搏便一無所有的年輕人高太多,根本不划算。此其一。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">台獨港獨:足引大陸「後欄起火」</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">都說中共領導英明神武,是特殊又特殊的材料煉成的,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">13</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">億人一條心,須絕對服從,中央的大政方針更不容任何人「妄議」。若大陸是一封閉體系,這個論述沒問</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">題,因為可以大家互相欺騙,「說」以為真;可偏偏這個體系有兩個通往外邊的缺口,一是台灣一是香港,都是北京要「拿回來」的。但不知為什麼,幾十年來,儘</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">管大陸甜言蜜語說盡(「台灣同胞我的骨肉兄弟」、「港人治港,高度自治」),惡形惡相擺盡(對台射飛彈、駐港共軍搞軍演),統戰結果都無效。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">二三十年來,不但港台老一輩依然半信半不信,新一代更明言要造反,不僅在在證明大陸那一套沒有吸引力,更說明起碼江朱、胡溫、習李這三代領導人的對台工作</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">基本上失敗。不僅失敗,而是愈來愈糟糕,台獨港獨思潮最激烈最澎湃的年齡組別,竟不是五六七十後的「老三屆」,而是跟共產黨本來沒有不共戴天之仇的八九十</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">後。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">這一發展趨勢,在大陸根本不能言說,因為一旦廣為傳播的話,領導人不會錯的「神話」破滅(其實老早破滅、沒有神話,不過不能公開在公私媒體上說),就成為</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">又一個實實在在的大眾共識。這個失敗對大陸的高壓維穩絕對有威脅,莫說會引發藏疆蒙獨有所行動或大陸漢人有樣學樣揭竿而起(那真要有相當本事和勇氣),便</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">是如果大陸人認為港台有成功獨立的可能性而中共沒奈何,則大量找尋安全靠泊港的資金也會從大陸通過各種渠道流進港台兩地,導致大陸經濟雪上加霜。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">此其二。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">經濟搖搖欲墜、南海引狼入室<br />
<br />
</span></strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">還是兩年前罷,不少大陸經濟學家例如林毅夫以及他們在海外的應聲蟲,都言之鑿鑿謂大陸</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">「中高速(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">)增長可以持續</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">20</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年」【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】;言猶在耳,如</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">今大陸</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">GDP</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">已經「見</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">6</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」而跌勢未止。今年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月份的工業</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">PMI</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">持續大幅收縮,服務業</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">PMI</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">增幅亦顯著回落(除卻金融和房地產服務因為市場泡沫和波動</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而有不正常增加,其他服務消費已經收縮;所謂的「工業轉服務」、「投資轉消費」的經濟轉型「正在發生」,不過是打腫臉充胖子)。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">此外,大陸</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月份出口總值同比急跌</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">20%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,連對處於溫和上升軌道的美國市場的出口也大跌近一成。更有消息指中央要讓</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">500</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">至</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">600</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">萬國企工人下崗;光是對這批人的下崗補貼便需</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1000</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">億人仔</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">——</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">還不過是每個下崗工人平均拿</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">18000</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">至</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">20000</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">人仔,所以怨氣會很大。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">與此同時,大陸卻積極花費巨資在南海造島駐軍置導彈,挑起緊張局勢,引致其他幾個南海領海領土聲索國緊張,拉攏美國撐腰,結果無異引狼入室,卻一點戰略價</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">值也沒有,卻造就了一批海軍將領貪污的好機會(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">27</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日官方消息指南海艦隊裝備部原部長汪玉嚴重違紀落馬)。而且,南海附近一旦打仗,美國獨力就可封鎖</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">馬六甲海峽禁運石油,大陸經濟馬上崩掉三分一,人家根本不必走近你的島嶼範圍;日本則不受影響,因為不遠處還有其他兩條「友好」航道可用,也可大規模從阿</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">拉斯加進口石油和天然氣</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">——</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">後者已在進行。<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">經濟增長是大陸社會「穩定」的最後保證,現在已經搖搖欲墜,卻在南海那麼重要的經濟生命線上跟美國卯上了,騎虎難下。試問在這種內外交困的局面底下,大陸還有很多餘力去應付台獨港獨嗎?此其三。<br />
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</span><strong><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">梁特:撩起港獨、添煩添亂</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">港大民意調查歷年所得資料顯示,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2005</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">6</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月曾蔭權上任特首的時候,港人支持台獨的比率為有數據以來最低的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">9.4%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">;到他離任的時候,</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">7</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年裏升至</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">20%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,升幅</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">10.6</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">個百分點。相比,梁特選勝至今短短</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">4</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年,港人支持台獨的比率便由</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">19.8%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">急升至現時的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">35%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">,是</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1995</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年以來的新高,升幅達</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">15.2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">個百分點,平均每年上升幅度是曾蔭權時期的</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2.5</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">倍強,成績十分「標青」【註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">4</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">】。<br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">須知道,港人支持台獨的傾向,是與支持港獨一而二、二而一的,所以上述數據雖然是關於台獨,但理解為顯示港獨的走勢,也完全可以。帝國主義大概沒給梁特什</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">麼錢(三幾年前那筆不是罷?),他卻提供了很高效的服務,史無前例,影響深遠。能有如此表現,當然是他那甚為偏激的意識形態、絕對令人側目的政治班子,以</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">及他本人的好鬥性格三者一起使然。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">話說回頭,田二少在北京領導人面前向他狠擲磚頭,儘管是徹頭徹尾的機會主義行徑,卻的確把話說到點子上面了。那麼,梁特能否「多坐一會」,已經成為一個有</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">趣的話題;可幸港人對他的仕途沒有一絲一毫決定權(不然社會又會進一步「撕裂」)。最後怎麼安排,一切由一貫正確的黨中央決定,我等小民實在犯不着勞神妄</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">議,終了還要傷和氣。<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">練乙錚</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">特約評論員<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">1</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:田二少</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">7</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日的人大「勇武」發言見《南早》(中文)的報道:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.nanzao.com/sc/hk-macau-tw/153557ff8dc5e46/gang-qu-ren-dai-tian-bei-chen-te-shou-zuo-feng-ru-qiang-ying-xiang-gang-she-hui-geng-fen-hua" target="_blank">http://www.nanzao.com/sc/hk-maca ... he-hui-geng-fen-hua</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">;其他愈是「粉報」愈為尊者隱,兩份本地喉媒更隻字不提。不過,大家參考多種渠道,不難重構當時境況。之前葉劉主張刑罰要加碼的講話見</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">19</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日各報,例如《明報》:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://news.mingpao.com/ins/instantnews/web_tc/article/20160210/s00001/1455065431710" target="_blank">http://news.mingpao.com/ins/inst ... 00001/1455065431710</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:見昨天《明報》阮紀宏文章〈紅臉和黑臉</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">紅蘿蔔棒子〉:</span><a href="http://news.mingpao.com/pns/dailynews/web_tc/article/20160309/s00012/1457459536060" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: &quot;">http://news.mingpao.com/pns/dail ... 00012/1457459536060</span></a><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">3</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:見</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">2014</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">6</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">月</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">16</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">日林毅夫在北京舉辦的「中美歐經濟學家學術交流會」上宣讀的文章〈中國經濟增長的可持續性〉;文章引亞洲其他國家的發展經驗對比中國,認為大陸「還有</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">20</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">年</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">8%</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">增長的潛力」:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="http://www.guancha.cn/LinYiFu/2014_06_16_238021.shtml" target="_blank">http://www.guancha.cn/LinYiFu/2014_06_16_238021.shtml</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">註</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">4</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">:港大民意調查計劃關於港人對台獨態度的歷年民調數據見:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><a href="https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/chinese/popexpress/tw/indtaiwan/poll/datatables.html" target="_blank">https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/chines ... oll/datatables.html</a></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">。</span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-69469247374878445852016-03-14T21:48:00.004-07:002016-03-14T21:48:40.031-07:00古德明: 「一言黨」之神
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">三月四日零時,中共無界新聞網發表一群黨員致習近平公開信,促請退位讓賢:「先生縱容個人崇拜,搞一言黨,禁『妄議中央』,令我們暗自憂心。黨、國、民族,再也經不起新的十年浩劫</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」公開信不旋踵就遭刪除,但一言黨的事實,路人皆見。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">農曆新年前夕,習近平訪江澤民、胡錦濤,中共中央同時發佈指示,警告說:「退休幹部思想上、政治上、行動上,都必須和習總書記的黨中央一致。」連江、胡都不能有獨立思想,何況其餘。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">於</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">是,二月十九日,習近平召開「黨的新聞輿論工作座談會」,警告傳播界:「傳媒是黨和政府的宣傳陣地,必須姓黨。」廣東《南方都市報》編輯不服,深圳版「宣</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">傳陣地必須姓黨」的標題之下,配一幅海葬圖,再加上「魂歸大海」四字注釋,結果該版編輯劉玉霞遭革職,報紙副總編輯王海軍記大過。地產大亨任志強也不服,</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">在網上微博質問「人民政府甚麼時候變成黨政府」,結果其微博戶籍被撤銷,其人更被傳播界圍剿,或說他「禽獸不如」,或斥他「用心險惡」。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">早在去年十月,習近平當局已修定《中國共產黨紀律處分條例》,加上「妄議中央大政」罪。第一個干犯「妄議」罪的,是《新疆日報》黨委書記趙新尉。他已遭立</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">案治罪。同時,出版所謂習近平秘史的香港銅鑼灣書店負責人,相繼給綁架上大陸,令出版商人人自危,《習近平的噩夢》之類書籍,香港無人再敢出版。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">今年二月二日,陝西橫山縣公安局舉辦「冬季亮劍嚴打新聞媒體座談會」,事後雖然辯稱「亮劍嚴打新聞媒體」等於「亮劍嚴打與新聞媒體」,但習近平政府防民之口的一言黨用心,清楚不過。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">孔</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">子說,明君有三懼,其一是「恐不聞其過(怕有過失而不自知)」。《韓詩外傳》卷七載:越王勾踐破吳國,吞九夷,稱霸天下之後,向百官下達一道命令:「聞過</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">而不以告我者(知道我犯了過失而不相告者),為上戮(其罪當誅)。」那時候,君主雖云專制,卻以人自居,而人誰無過,所以求諫言,設諫官。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">宋太宗年間,諫官張觀忤旨,被抓入獄。第二天,宰相呂蒙正就不入朝。太宗遣人問原因,呂蒙正說:「臣為宰臣,致諫官下獄,復何面目見君上耶?」太宗大慚,連忙釋放張觀。這段故事,見宋朝《儒林公議》,但儒林公議今天恐怕都要治「妄議中央」罪。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">今</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">天,中共之國雖云「人民當家作主」,中共領袖卻以神自居,而神不可能犯錯,正如當年義大利法西斯黨徒說:</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">Mussolini is always right</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">(墨索里尼永遠正確)。永遠正確的法西斯神,只能歌頌,不能妄議,所以,「傳媒必須姓黨」命令下達之後,新華社編輯部副主任蒲立業馬上獻上頌</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">歌:「總書記,您的背影,新華人崇敬的目光</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">新中國,一言黨。讀書人一聲長歎。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: DFKai-SB; font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB; font-size: large;">古德明</span><span style="font-family: &quot; font-size: large;">: </span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB; font-size: large;">狗彘不如</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">二月二十八日立法會補選,民主派楊岳橋以十六萬票險勝,比在朝派周浩鼎僅多一萬票。本土派功敗垂成:他們得票將近七萬,只要能從民主派手上多奪萬餘票,就可以護送周浩鼎入立法會。那萬餘選民,沒有上本土派「打倒共產黨」口號的當,壞了人家好事。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">在朝派競選失利,行政長官梁振英跟記者談感想,所言幾乎和「打倒共產黨」一樣動聽:「社會是有怨氣。政府希望聽取不同意見,和大家一同解決問題。」至於他們「聽取意見」的辦法,政務司長鄭月娥說得最明白。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">立</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">法會補選前一天,鄭月娥出席所謂全民退休保障公眾諮詢會,有市民劉小麗者,在會上越說越氣:「鄭司長,你可謂壞事做盡,狗彘不如。你們把老人家說成是蛀</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">蟲,謊說全民退休金將令香港破產,卻聽從中共指揮,揮金如土,致力大而無用的基礎建設,漠視老人家苦況,簡直沒有人性</span><span style="font-family: &quot;">……</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">」<span style="color: blue;">鄭月娥形色不動,只有一雙鼠目</span></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"><span style="color: blue;">閃爍,施施然回答:「這位女士,想是見到早些時有市民在立法會上痛罵政府,網上出盡風頭,有心效法。我百毒不侵,她的話我絕對不會放在心上</span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;"><span style="color: blue;">……</span></span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"><span style="color: blue;">」</span>然則梁振</span><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">英所謂「不同意見」,原來等於「百毒」;「聽取」之後,「絕不放在心上」可也。這就是他們「公眾諮詢」的原則。</span><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;">我又想起陸放翁的《歎俗》詩:「看渠皮底元無血。」皮底無血,非狗彘不若而何。</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span></span>混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-11581306932066757152016-03-05T22:10:00.001-08:002016-03-05T22:10:10.755-08:00數據新聞﹕梁天琦票從何來?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與其沉迷於無謂的自我安慰,不如正視現實,就是梁天琦的激進本土路線是獲一定數量市民支持。今年九月立法會選</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">舉會按比例代表制分配議席,就算激進本土派得票如何比傳統泛民及建制為低、市民如何選擇「理性的批判」,他們都有機會晉身議會。在兩周前仍被部分傳媒稱為</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「暴徒」的候選人梁天琦,到底他的票從何而來?補選數據對未來的選舉又有何啟示?本研究試圖從梁天琦得票數據中找出端倪,給出最客觀的結論。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">地理分析</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">首</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">先可以從梁天琦各選區得票率地圖找出特點。地圖上藍色深淺度代表梁天琦的得票率,愈深色代表該選區得票率愈高(見圖</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。從圖中所見,梁在北區市中心和大</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">埔市中心得票率較高。至於沙田區,大圍及馬鞍山區對梁的支持,相對較城門河流域的沙田市中心為高。但總的來說梁在沙田的成績不算很好,亦是唯一一區並無選</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">區能突破五分一選票。在西貢區,梁只在將軍澳區尚德邨附近選區成績較佳,其他選區的支持度偏低。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">使</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">用上次已經介紹過的機器學習方式(見本刊</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">14</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日同系列文章),可以根據選區</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2011
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年人口普查人口特徵(包括收入、長者人口、專上教育人口和操普通話及中國方言人口)自動為梁天琦在不同選區的支持度分組,畫成決策樹(圖</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">B</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。從決策樹可</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">見,梁天琦的支持度只取決於專上教育人口、收入及長者人口。電腦分析指出專上教育人口高、收入高及長者人口高選區可影響梁天琦的得票。在專上教育人口低於</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">三成及月入三萬人口低於</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的選區,梁天琦的支持度最高。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">梁天琦得票率最高五名選區,分別是尚德、華明、富亨、太和和寶雅,除寶雅為居屋屋苑,其他都是公共屋邨。而梁天琦得票率倒數五名選區,分別是駿馬、環保、火炭、白沙灣和西貢北,都是較為富庶的區域。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">票源重疊分析</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一點坊間已有不少討論,就連梁國雄議員自己都說了,梁天琦搶佔了「激進泛民」的票源。我想用純數據的方式證明這一點,於是利用</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2012</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年立法會選舉各名單</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在各選區的得票率與梁天琦的得票數據計算</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Kendall</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">順位相關系數(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Kendall
tau rank correlation coefficient</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),找出誰人的票源與梁天琦最相近及最不相近。圖</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">C</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中的分散圖我將</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">X</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">軸和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Y</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">軸轉成對數尺度(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Log
Scale</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),可更易見到關係。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">圖中上列為最相近頭五位,下列是最不相近頭五位。坊間的分析大抵正確,就是梁天琦可以在所謂「激進泛民」梁</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">國雄、陳志全和范國威支持度較高的區域同樣獲得好成績。而有趣的是,工聯會葉偉明和民建聯陳克勤的得票率都跟梁天琦也呈正向相關。這並不代表工聯會或民建</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">聯「過票」給梁天琦,原因是「相關不蘊涵因果」原則。更有可能的解釋是工聯會及民建聯部分議員主打某一人口社群,而此社群又剛好與梁天琦重疊而已。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">從</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以上三套分析,可以大概理解梁天琦的六萬六選票何來。三套分析中我覺得最能左右選情的是人口特徵,從分析所見似乎富裕階級難以接納梁天琦的激進本土路線。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與傳統泛民不同,本土派不喜歡講「入屋論」,他們認為只需掌握關鍵少數的支持自己就足夠,無需要面面俱圓,也不需要感召最多的群眾支持自己。最少今次的選</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">舉反映,梁天琦可以獲低下被壓迫階層的關鍵社群支持。而這批受壓一群,亦是現存的「激進泛民」及部分建制派的支持者,九月票源重疊之下可能引發的後果實在</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">難以預料。</span></div>
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混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-31459144456690065082016-03-05T22:07:00.002-08:002016-03-05T22:07:22.189-08:00周日話題﹕香港,回到18世紀的英國<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">該如何評價取得</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 6</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬多票的梁天琦?單評價他的政治立場,很容易,他及本土民主前線(本民前)大致類同西方的右翼民族主義者(當然是「香港民族」);要挑他論述的毛病也不</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">難,蕭若元最近在《最新蕭析》中批評梁的本土定義前後矛盾、觀念不清,雖難免予人有黨爭之感,但批評得相當中肯。然而,政治與愛情相似,不太講邏輯與實</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">證,最重感覺。而且,這些判定容易,卻可能忽略了其更深的政治歷史含意。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">雖然本民前去年剛成立時,已有反水貨踢行李箱的行動,但健忘的香港人注意本民前,大概是始於年初二的旺角騷</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">亂。騷亂以及之後的「寧為玉碎」的修辭,梁天琦的「忠誠、團結、犧牲」豪語,有人說有法西斯味道,頗具爭議,但說他喚起共同體最後一戰的悲壯感,大概沒有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">錯。這種集體感覺也發酵出「暴力革命/非暴力改良」的二分,充滿「暴力革命」的想像。愈來愈多人,特別是年輕人接受、支持,甚至參與這種想像與行動。相</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">反,由泛民政黨及社運團體領導的非暴力改良,漸漸失去市場。有些論者更乾脆直接採用清末的革命派與維新派來理解當前香港。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">管香港如何本土化,政治論述似乎還是離不開大中華的現代歷史經驗感覺,此為一例。把旺角騷亂類比成清末的革命派起義,其實有點牽強。孫文一黨在清末無法如</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">梁天琦般參政,况且,年初二騷亂與本民前的關係仍然撲朔迷離,我們只知道,前者不是黃花崗起義,後者亦非同盟會。同時,究竟誰或是否有組織預先策劃,難有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">明確答案,觀乎騷亂參與者的行為,大概是偶發的。因此,即使認定泛民為康梁一類,「革命」帽子也不可以隨便扣在梁的頭上。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按現時資料看,旺</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">角騷亂比較像</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1966</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年天星小輪加價的「九龍騷動」(官方命名),與</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1920</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年代末由中共領導人發動的城市暴動、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1956</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的雙十暴動、六七暴動等,都相差</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">十萬八千里。突發騷亂在現代政治中,雖時有發生,但畢竟不是常規政治抗爭。既然是突發,訴求不清,策略及手段不統一,單純判斷一場騷亂為左或右,革命或改</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">良,意義不大。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">突發騷亂在前現代的政治中,出現次數頻繁,也是民眾參與政治的主要方式。例如明清時期日漸增多的民變,另一個例子是歐洲在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀的農村騷亂,尤以食物騷亂(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">food riot</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)為重要類型。這些騷亂只有臨時的領頭人,沒有持久組織,只有零星小組織參與或點火。事件背後雖有一定政治經濟原因,但大致屬偶發的事件。旺角騷</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">亂由小販擺賣而起,很有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀英法城市騷亂的特質,例如,突然冒起頭來的領導者,如黃台仰及梁天琦,以至一群本土派領袖,乘風而參選。事實上,騷亂當晚</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在與警察對峙之間,本民前甚至突兀地宣布梁天琦要為選舉而遊行。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1966</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的杜葉錫恩絕對沒有膽子及條件去乘騷亂的風潮。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">想起</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀英國維爾克斯運動</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">藝術家筆下的18世紀英國「激進派」人物維爾克斯(John Wilkes)。(網上圖片)</td></tr>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一切令我無法不想起</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀的維爾克斯(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">John
Wilkes</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)及其追隨者(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Wilkites</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。話說當年英國王室還不是虛君,國會也遠不是普選,英王喬治三世獨攬大權之餘,還滲透到國會,保皇派主導,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">打壓異見。維爾克斯推動改革當時腐敗不堪的英國國會,爭取言論出版自由。他屢次參選,又多次被英王把持的國會褫奪資格,英王甚至用誹謗罪要把他關進牢房。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大量倫敦的低下層自命維爾克斯的追隨者,參與一連串騷亂,當時雖已有請願派傳單,喊出「沒有自由,沒有國王」及「維爾克斯與自由」等口號,但間中亦串插與</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">保皇派群眾毆鬥,襲擊有財有勢者的府邸等騷亂行為。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1768</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,在聖佐治廣場(附近是關押維爾克斯的監獄),騷亂群眾遭軍隊開槍鎮壓,史稱「聖佐治大屠</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">殺」(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Massacre of St George's Fields</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">用今天標準看維爾克斯,他既有激進派特質,也有點投機,他離經叛</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">道個性,口才出眾,成了他的生存之道。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1774</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年他當選倫敦市長,是維爾克斯運動的頂峰。但是,入了體制的他,愈來愈無法駕馭那些追隨者,特別是參與騷亂</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的平民。與</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀大部分騷亂一樣,參與者的社會成分複雜,以工人及小商人居多;政治派別多樣,有主張限制王權的輝格黨人(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Whigs</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),也有他們的死對</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">頭保守派托利黨人(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Tories</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),更有大量非國教派教徒。這些人當中有激進,有保守,也有反愛爾蘭人的種族主義者。難怪維氏甚至跟英王說,他自己不是維</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">爾克斯主義者,而他則因為支持鎮壓反天主教的哥頓騷亂(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Gordon riots</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)而被群眾捨棄。觀乎維氏的遭遇,梁天琦的政治路途並不如他的口號那樣簡單。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不少歷史學家認為,英法</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀城市騷亂是一個過渡</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">階段。城市平民蹣跚學步,學習抗爭,當時還沒有現代政黨、沒有像樣的社運組織(有些簡單的小社團),群眾的政治界線不清,連有點紀律的遊行也不懂。著名的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">馬克思主義歷史學家湯普森(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">E. P. Thompson</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)認為,接下來世紀之交,以至</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">19</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀爭取工人權益及普選權的憲章運動,就是這個難以定性的「暴民」(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">mob</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)傳統的後續,非國教派的激</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">進工人領袖把它重新挪用及組織起來,成為左翼政治的源頭。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">公民政治學步</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">左翼政治源頭</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如果我們把這段歷史生硬地普遍化成社會進化,旺角騷亂可以說是一種「反祖」現象,回到</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1966</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年九龍的彌敦道現場,甚至有點像</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀英國騷亂與改革共生的街頭。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">香</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">港自</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1990</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年代以來,由半調子形式民主、政黨政治及社會運動所構成的公民政治文化(或借用羅永生的「虛擬自由主義」來理解更好),好像有點無以為繼,面</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">對北京專權在香港擴張,容易令不少本來便沒有多大公民社會認同與想像的人感到幻滅。近年網上流行歸咎泛民主派的無能,本土派更進一步製造「左膠」及「港</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">豬」罪人。不過,宏觀一點看,這也是普遍的民主危機及民粹主義冒起的症候﹕西方國家極右民族主義政治明星雖不至於三分天下,亦穩佔角色;有人甚至把美國特</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">朗普的冒起,亦歸為新自由主義殘害社會後,社會底層白人以法西斯面目進行復仇。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">港困於無法動搖的一國憲制</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">然而,宏觀的大勢,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不應用來解釋掉香港的特殊性。嚴格來說,香港不算是「反祖」,因為,香港的公民政治文化先天不足,只能算是半真半假的進化。我們的半調子民主自由勉強算是</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">爭取回來的成果,但卻更大程度是「賜予的」,是港英統治晚期(加上與中共協商)培植出來的,扎根本來就不深,拔苗助長下,卻一度以為繁花似錦,妄想躋身民</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">主地區之列。現在看來,我們勉強只是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀的英國階段,而且,香港反對派與維爾克斯相比,條件只有更差。維氏以「愛國者」之名,改革一個名不副實的憲制</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(「愛國主義是流氓的最後庇護所」其實是當時保守派罵他的話),而香港人則被困在無法動搖、難以認同卻又名實不副的「一國」憲制之中,爭取小城自己「一</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">制」的憲制權利,至今妾身未名。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我以為,香港如今的政治形勢,並非任何改革之路無望,若無望,為何連本土派也趕着要參選?都說是抗命的年</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">代,到底是個怎樣的年代?大概像晦暗、混亂的</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀歐洲時期,是香港人重新學習公民政治的年代。我並不同意本土派對泛民的全盤否定,但現下的確是重新估</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">量及重整公民文化的時期,沒有什麼可以視為理所當然,包括那「被賜予」的民主自由。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">回顧歷史,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世紀並不是必然革命的年代,因為,除了法國在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1789</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年意外地發生了一場革命,它對岸的英國,以至不少歐洲國家的平民騷亂,並沒有導致革命,那是個漫長的社會及政治改革世紀。平民沒有現成的公民政治手段,也沒有革命武器,卻在喧鬧之中,一跌一碰下尋找出路。</span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://fs.mingpao.com/pns/20160306/s00125/cf5cd468c3ad6368db95d6190889e5de.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://fs.mingpao.com/pns/20160306/s00125/cf5cd468c3ad6368db95d6190889e5de.jpg" height="212" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">本土民主前線發言人梁天琦。(資料圖片)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The Making of the English Working Class by E.
P. Thompson</span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-82613001291660121142016-03-05T22:04:00.001-08:002016-03-05T22:04:35.694-08:00梁文道:示範禁書<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="http://www.chinesepen.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/%E7%BA%B3%E7%B2%B9%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%85%90%E8%B4%A5%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%8D%E8%85%90.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.chinesepen.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/%E7%BA%B3%E7%B2%B9%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%85%90%E8%B4%A5%E4%B8%8E%E5%8F%8D%E8%85%90.jpg" height="320" width="223" /></a></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大陸去年有一本很受關注的禁書,是那種「被下架」出版物的典型代表。為什麼遭禁?那是因為它指出了某種專制政體的核心原則,就是「將身邊的人的道德敗壞作</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">為犬儒主義統治手段的基礎」。在這個體制之內,各省諸侯「一般都控制着完善的小金庫和基金會的系統,這系統既不受</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨財務官的監管,也不受國家的中央權</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">力的控制。雖然</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XXX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的權力足夠強大,地位足夠鞏固,能夠約束住腐敗的封疆大吏們,但是元首在面對腐敗問題時都非常冷漠(這很能說明問題),甚至是罪孽深</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">重的封臣也能保住自己的位子」。之所以如此,在於這套體制的官員任命全靠關係,用人唯親,一個人是不是自己人要比什麼都重要。「這種人治的統治關係特別能</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">夠滋生裙帶關係和腐敗現象。在黨內,誰忠於自己所在小集體,就能得到資助和救濟,從而對主子感恩戴德,於是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨的政治領導人們不得不向下屬分配工作崗位</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和職位」。「在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨人的理想主義宣傳的光輝外表背後,藏匿着一種沒有理想的理想主義,並沒有把物質上的貪婪掩飾好。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨人的基本態度是絕非理想主義</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的,而是極端的經濟和物質主義的:他們沒有克服經濟的、物質主義的心態,而是湊合着遮蔽着自己的物質主義」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">當然,最高領袖</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XXX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「不會一味姑息代理的腐敗」,而且他也得在一定程度上回應公眾的看法和要求。所以他必須反腐,並且發佈一連串「關於領導幹部的生活方</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">式」的命令,要是有人違命,「不管是誰,不管他的地位有多高,一定嚴懲不貸,絕不姑息」。可事實上「越小的腐敗反而處罰越重,小官僚們那些暴露在公眾眼前</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的失職行為頻頻受到懲罰,用以殺雞儆猴,而大區或國家級官員的犯罪行為卻基本上都沒有受到懲罰」。因為反腐的實質是政治,「結黨營私」和「非組織關係聯</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">繫」才是反腐運動的重點。「對於腐敗份子來說,除非他們捲入了體制內部的權力鬥爭,或是侵吞了黨及其組織的財產,否則就不必害怕自己的腐敗行為受到檢舉控</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">訴」。另外,還要看這些腐敗官員的地位,如果他的級別不夠,又或者他的地位不穩,那他也很有可能會被拿來祭旗。畢竟「在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨的動物園裏,他們的物種尺寸</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是限制好了的」。饒是如此,這個體制還是不斷吹噓自己的精神和信仰,宣傳自己的反腐決心與成就。例如</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨的一個法官便說:「世界上沒有任何一個其他政</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">權,能夠像</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">社會主義政權這樣;對所有形式的腐敗展開如此徹底和堅決的鬥爭」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">說到這裏,你大概會讚嘆這本書的作者和出版社的勇氣,奇怪他們怎麼敢這麼直接地抨擊中國政府和目下雷厲風行的反腐運動。其實,這本書所說的「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">社會主義</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">政權」中的「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」,並非「中國」,而是「國家」;「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">黨」中的「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」也不是「共產」,而是「納粹」;最高領袖「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">XXX</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」更不可能是習近平,卻是第三</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">帝國元首希特勒。這本書的作者是專門研究納粹體制的德國歷史學家弗蘭克.巴約爾(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Frank
Bajohr</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),這本書的名字叫做《納粹德國的腐敗與反腐》。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是書堪稱今日「被下架」書籍典型,是因為它的版權早在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2012</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年引進,那時候還沒有現在所見的反腐運動,不是什麼指桑罵槐的影射「擦邊球」,純屬專業學術</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">研究。所以它的編輯和出版社才敢選題出版,所以它才能夠通過出版社內部和相關部門的審查,所以它才可以進入發行零售市場,在市面上流通了好一段時間。換句</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">話講,這本書應該是現存出版體制確認過的,沒有問題的一部出版物。然而,它還是逃不了「被下架」的命運。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按照現時一般評論中國時事的常見說法,我們可以很輕易地用這本禁書的案例去諷刺當局,笑話他們「不是有『三個自信』嗎?怎麼還會把自己當成不到二十年就完</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">蛋了的納粹德國,連一本談納粹的書都受不了」。只不過這種說法在滿足了情緒發洩的效果之外,並不能讓我們對當前中國的意識型態領域管理增加多少瞭解。若要</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">真正認識它的運作,我們還得再具體一點,再深入一點。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: red; font-family: DFKai-SB;">梁文道</span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="color: red; font-family: DFKai-SB;">如何禁書?</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://t2.qpic.cn/mblogpic/4e1b961ecd090314634a/2000" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://t2.qpic.cn/mblogpic/4e1b961ecd090314634a/2000" height="233" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">為什麼像《納粹德國的腐敗與反腐》這樣的書也會遭到「被禁」的命運呢?明明是一部專業學術著作,讀者範圍不大;明明是一本談幾十年前往事的歷史書,而且還</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是外國的歷史。迫它下架,豈不反過來表明了當局自比納粹,所以批判昔時納粹政權的反腐運動就等於攻擊今天雷厲風行的反腐風暴?「有關部門」到底是怎麼想的呢?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">讓我們再看看去年大陸另一本有名的「被下架」書籍,清華大學史學教授秦暉的新著《走出帝制》。這本書的命運更是奇怪,不像《納粹德國的腐敗與</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">反腐》那樣,遮蔽掉「納粹」這個名詞和拿去時代背景之後,你會以為它在談現時的中國;不,它完全起不到這種影射效果。因為正和秦暉先生近年的其他書寫一</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">樣,這是本積極介入當前學界思想界爭論的回應之作。近幾年來有許多學者慨嘆,要是當初中國沒有走上革命的道路,選擇了立憲派的主張,那後來的事情大概就會</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">比今天好得多了。但秦暉先生則想指出這是不可能的事,因為中國根本沒有君主立憲的土壤,又有些學者重省近代國史,強調傳統中國並非像以前大家一直所相信的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那樣殘破陳腐,所以清末一碰到外侮就倒得摧枯拉朽;我們今天應該要有自信,看到「幾千年的優秀傳統」。可秦暉先生卻要說明,帝制中國實有不可不毀棄的道</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">理,大家不宜過度信任時下流行的修正史觀。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">無論從任何角度來看,這都不該是本犯了政治忌諱的書。一本談晚清到民國那段歷史的文集;一本力辯革命不</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">得不發生,帝制不能不走出的書;一本針對眼前史學潮流,重新強調制度在歷史變遷中的作用的論著;當局又有什麼非要它消失在讀者眼前的理由呢?難道現在的共</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">產黨想要走回帝制,反過來否定辛亥革命的意義?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">每有這類禁書消息傳出,外界的第一反應定是從那些書犯了什麼毛病開始推理,然後大而化之地把那些書</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所批評的東西當成政權必須捍衛的真理,由反面倒推出正面,再大加揶揄一番。於是禁掉《納粹德國的腐敗與反腐》就等於共產黨默認自己是納粹黨;禁掉《走出帝</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">制》就等於中華人民共和國政府很想走回帝制。這類言論或許很有解氣宣洩的作用,但恐怕無助於我們理解目前中國書籍審查和意識型態管理的實際運作。在我看</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">來,與其一個個案例地去推想一本書、一首歌,乃至於一部電影為什麼被禁,更重要的問題可能是它們如何被禁?被什麼人經過什麼樣的方式把它們變成禁書禁片?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">就</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以《走出帝制》來說好了,其實這本書的底稿是一連串的專欄文字,早就見載於內地報刊,現在也都還能在大陸不少網站上頭讀到那些文章。而報紙雜誌是有審查機</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">制的,網站的東西同樣也要經過審查,如果這批文字真有問題,那麼當初就不可能會出現在那些流通量要遠比書籍大得多的媒體上。也因為這個道理,過去大陸出版</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">界一直有個常識,那就是曾經在「正式」出版物上刊登過的文字,結集成書就一定不會有問題。更何況報刊的審查標準和程序往往要較書籍嚴格得多,連他們的編審</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">都說沒事,那我們出書還怕什麼?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可是這種報刊要比書籍緊張,書籍又比網絡緊張的情況已經變了,如今各種媒介的審查嚴格程度正在漸漸趨同。唯一不變</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的,是各類媒介的審查標準始終不一,操作方式也依然各異。所以過了報紙那關,不表示出書就一定順利;反過來,書裏早有的內容,也不表示就一定可以化整為零</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">地刊用在報刊之上。換句話說,並沒有一個從上而下,廣被各類媒體的指令告訴大家,談納粹腐敗的東西一定不能出,看見有人告別帝制就一定要拿掉。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">儘</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">管宣傳部和其他相關部門幾乎天天發佈指示,不准這個不准那個;但是審查工作並不能全靠指示,它真正依賴的是「敏感」。什麼東西才算「敏感」是說不準的,因</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">為那是個可大可小,伸縮範圍極廣的圈圈,裏頭裝的東西也會隨時間變化,刻刻不同。不管是身負正式審查重任的專職人員,還是必須自我審查的編輯等實務工作</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">者,都得掌握「敏感」的分寸。也就是說,這是門萬事存乎一心的藝術。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">說藝術,或許太過誇大,其實審查工作當中的「敏感」分寸,全繫於每一個參與這</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">事的人他自己的恐懼。恐懼什麼?那當然是怕丟了飯碗。對着眼前這份稿件,他必須仔細思量,小心察照,裏頭可有任何會給他這個負責人帶來麻煩的想法和字眼。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可不要以為這裏會有份違禁關鍵詞字典,又或者危險思想指南,可以幫他辨認待審稿件中的敏感要素;就算真有這樣的工具,實際上也起不到多大的作用。因為一本</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">按照現有明文禁令和指示看來毫無問題的書,很有可能會在出版面市之後才遇到麻煩。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">例如《納粹德國的腐敗與反腐》,當初引進這部德文專著的選題編</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">輯,它的翻譯,負責處理和校訂中文稿件的編輯,出版社的總編,主管出版社的部門審查,這一連串的專業人員憑着自己的經驗和現有的指令範圍全都看不出它會有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">什麼問題。可是誰猜得到在它出版之後,會在網上引發那麼熱烈的討論,而討論的取向正正又是以納粹德國去嘲諷共產中國?於是留意網絡意識型態動向的官僚就注</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">意到這本書了,甚或者某位和這個領域完全無關的「重要領導」發現了這事,再責成宣傳部門「調查」那些討論和這書的來龍去脈,一查下去,自然就會查到出版局</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和那間出版社的主管部門。在氣氛比較寬鬆的時候,中間這批官僚又比較大膽的話,說不定他們還能真的客觀調查,打個報告回覆說這本書實在沒事,全是網上那群</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">傢伙借題發揮。但是今天的政治空氣如此緊張,所有官僚都怕被查辦,於是這種調查就會變成責任追究。先假定這書一定有問題,再看看這麼有問題的書怎麼會出得</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">來,然後每一層人員都盡量把責任往下推卸。但不管最後有沒有人負責,是誰負責,這本有問題的書是一定要下架的了。終於,《納粹德國的腐敗與反腐》就成了禁</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">書。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">整個過程裏頭,絕大部份的官僚都不會在意禁了這本書之後的結果,也都不會擔心外間會不會取笑中共政權不准人家批判納粹。他們只知道網上又有人</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">罵政府了,而這回開罵的道具是一本書。他們只知道自己不能不做點事,否則前途堪憂,所以拿下這本書是最合乎「理性」的行動。如果海外媒體因此批評中共成了</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">納粹,那也算不了什麼。因為挨批的是上層,是那個很宏大的體制,負責回應的是外宣部門,而不是自己;何況西方媒體一向擅長炒作抹黑,用心不良,可以不管。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">即使上層真有人發現這事不妥,又一次地往下調查談納粹的書怎麼也會被禁(請注意,這種情況發生的機率極低),中間這一串官僚也都能推說自己只是盡責而已。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所謂「寧左勿右,寧緊勿鬆」,往往就是在這樣的程序中形成。</span></div>
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混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-40880966224362975762016-03-05T22:00:00.001-08:002016-03-05T22:00:30.112-08:00安裕周記﹕一本簿,一支筆——《驚天大陰謀》到《焦點追擊》的堅持<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">某程度而言,觀影《焦點追擊》(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Spotlight</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)是一次回憶之旅。曾經有一段不短的時間,幾乎每隔</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">兩個星期便得從紐約北上波士頓。婆娑樹影,愛爾蘭裔,紅襪棒球,天主教徒;饞嘴而生的唾涎是片中律師在餐館與記者款款深談時小砵裏的周打蜆湯;波士頓口音</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的重音變化也是回憶,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">u</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">o</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">之間的調換使得這個城巿別樹一幟。外邊人很難想像小小的波士頓有着這樣浩瀚並且深重的傳統。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">再看下去,回憶幾乎佔據半邊大腦。這齣電影令人想起七十年代羅拔烈福與德斯汀荷夫曼的《驚天大陰謀》(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">All
the President's Men</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),那是《華盛頓郵報》記者挖出水門事件的電影;《焦點追擊》主場所在的《波士頓環球報》內部裝修與四十年前的《華盛頓郵報》一模一樣,淺色低矮的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">工作隔板,平房頂灑下的明亮燈光。連《焦點追擊》一頭銀髮的編輯</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Ben Bradlee, Jr.</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,真實生活裏就是水門案時運籌帷幄的《華盛頓郵報》總編輯</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Ben
Bradlee</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的兒子。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《焦點追擊》奪得奧斯卡金像獎最佳電影那個早上,面書鋪天蓋地講的是這部片子;這既有記者編輯作為同行的感受,也有當年獲得普立茲獎的《波士頓環球報》報</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人回憶。字裏行間言詞殷殷,令得那個星期一早上的香港有着很是不同的况味。同業之間對未來日子的相互打氣勉勵,源於昔日從學校畢業那一天的自我期許;在</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「北風我迎頭再遇」的數九寒冬清晨,是昨夜渡輪上的「懷念你說生如戰士」社會氛圍。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">說來弔詭,美國近半世紀的大新聞,很多不是由銷量而言的「大報」所能包辦。嚴格來說,七十年代的《華盛頓郵報》或十多年前神父戀童案爆發時的《波士頓環球</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">報》,銷量算不上是全國大報。《華盛頓郵報》銷售範圍不出首都華盛頓及其毗鄰的維珍尼亞和西維珍尼亞州,個人經驗,在靠北一點的馬里蘭州挨近賓夕法尼亞州</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那邊就不太容易買得到。同樣地,《波士頓環球報》的行銷地圖是美國人所指的東北角新英格蘭一帶。不過,銷售量不能代表一報一刊的水平,這些日銷二十來萬到</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">五十萬的中型報紙人材輩出,幾許王牌記者往往是從地方報章轉過來。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「讓讀者覺得這報是必要的」</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與財政豐厚的大型跨國傳媒相比,《華盛頓郵報》顯然稍遜一籌,《焦點追擊》裏新任總編輯</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Martin
Baron</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">到任之後,一開腔便是報業受到電子傳媒大舉的進逼。然而這些事情並無困擾記者採訪上的獨立空間,一些影評把對</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Martin
Baron</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的觀察定位在於如何帶領旗下同人在新聞採訪道路走出另一片天,不過我覺得他在電影開始階段、即與報社同人會面時的一句話更有意思</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">——</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人人談到未</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">來生意景况,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Martin Baron</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">提出他的看法:讓讀者覺得這份報紙是「必要的」(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">make
this paper essential to readers</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。說到底,新聞人的本職便是新聞這回事,並非言不及義的這些和那些,堅信好的新聞自會招徠讀者。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">看過《驚天大陰謀》的觀眾定必會認同《焦點追擊》表達手法以及內容頗為相似。都是記者捅破權貴,不同的是《驚天大陰謀》踢爆尼克遜作假證供,《焦點追點》</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">則把筆桿對準紅衣大主教。兩者相比,《焦點追擊》的難度大於《驚天大陰謀》,原因在於要生長於波士頓的記者揭破同區的天主教教士戀童行為。華盛頓是四方之</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">地,極少所謂土生土長華盛頓人,新總統上場,華盛頓最好生意的是搬屋公司,幾千名聯邦官員下台而去,離開傷心之地;同一時間另外幾千名雄心勃勃的新發彩準</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">備進駐首都大展拳腳。這就是說,華盛頓只有政治上的</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">establishment</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而沒有廣義文化上的</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">establishment</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">;相對於此,愛爾蘭裔大本</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">營、天主教徒集中地,連色彩都是愛爾蘭傳統青綠的波士頓,碰口撞面隨時可能是三姨媽七姑丈,就像《焦點追擊》的偵查小組成員赫然發現涉嫌戀童的神父就住對</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">街。這種極為親暱的區內關係,建構成比起「嗨」一聲擦肩而過的華盛頓更難捅破醜聞的客觀空間。不要以為美國人不講人際或親戚關係,《焦點追擊》至少可以在</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">社會學這方面範疇提供教材。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">對孜孜發掘新聞的感動</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">儘管《焦點追擊》經過近期的大量報道已不存劇透之虞,可是到了觀影之時依然感動不已,新聞記者對新聞本質迹近神聖不可侵犯的尊重,令人在觀影回家路上念茲</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在茲不能放下。同一的感動在《驚天大陰謀》兩個記者在國會圖書館調來堆如小山的借書卡,冀從中尋出白宮人員與竊聽事件的關係。從圖書館頂高處俯視,小小的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">白紙卡堆疊高過兩個白襯衣的記者身軀,靜態攝影帶來「新聞是跑出來的」意念。《焦點追擊》從核對教區教士離休名單,逐一敲門(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">doorstep</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)被訪者,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一個一個核實,一個一個詰問,沒有僥倖只有郵差般的勞動強度。中間有氣餒有成功,有橫生枝節的「九一一」事件忽然調到佛羅里達州採訪涉及恐襲的機師;四個</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">血肉之軀,與當年的水門案記者一樣,一支筆一本簿在東拼西湊當中找到大略圖象。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《驚天大陰謀》與《焦點追擊》四十年間殊途同歸,再次成為電影工業乃至社會焦點,必須指出的是,要有濃厚的政治及社會氛圍,始能有水門案以及戀童案的新聞</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">報道空間。或會有人認為這兩部電影美化了所謂「無冕皇帝」或西方資本主義新聞觀,其實此言差矣,因為這是一個整體(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">institutional
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)的氛圍方可臻此。美國憲法第一修正案就是保障言論自由,極大程度上保住新聞自由的空間。事實上美國的新聞自由並非一蹴而就,不少人都聽過一個謔而虐的笑</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">話,話說第一次世界大戰初期,美國某報派到歐洲的記者有一天無新聞可發,詎料總社叫他寫點牛皮回來(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">send
me rumours</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。今天人們批評小報,喚這些是「黃色小報」,始祖便是上世紀初的美利堅合眾國。這條長路歷經《紐約時報》等擔演先鋒角色,包括不要廣告寧願</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">把空位留給新聞,再是二戰期間的翔實報道,國難當頭的日與夜在短波收音機旁靜聽哥倫比亞廣播公司(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">CBS</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)特派員莫羅的倫敦報道,鼓舞了國人戰意,力拒極</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">權,由此奠下基業。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新聞自由的政治社會空間</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不過,在紙張與電波之間是瑜瑕互見。《華盛頓郵報》一九八一年曾發生新聞造假而撤回普立茲獎的醜聞,涉事記者</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Janet
Cooke</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">杜撰一個「八歲癮君子」專題報道,舉薦此文的是水門案兩名記者之一的伍德沃德(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Bob
Woodward</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),他當時已是助理總編輯。其後《華盛頓郵報》在報端公開道歉,伍德沃德由新聞部調出,集中寫書撰訪,從此不涉日常採訪編務。相對於此,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">美國人民至今感念一九七一年《紐約時報》的越戰機密五角大樓文件,刊出後遭到聯邦政府以「國家機密」為由要求法院頒發禁制令。官司打到最高法院,最後九名</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大法官以六比三判定政府不可對《紐約時報》施以禁制,大法官伯拉克(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Justice
Black</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)寫出傳誦至今的新聞自由判辭:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">“Only a free and unrestrained press can
effectively expose deception in government. And paramount among the
responsibilities of a free press is the duty to prevent any part of the
government from deceiving the people and sending them off to distant lands to
die of foreign fevers and foreign shot and shell.”<br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「只有自由以及不受箝制的新聞媒體,始可有力揭露政府欺騙之舉。新聞自由最崇高目的,在於阻止政府欺瞞國人,差派其到迢遠國度死於異地紅熱及炮火之下。」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">潮流在變精神不變</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《焦點追擊》在《驚天大陰謀》面世四十年後再把人們帶到追求真相的事實面前,毫無疑問這是贏得奧斯卡小金人的其中主要原因。然而回到今天,重新檢視十幾年</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">前的教士戀童事件以及更早期的總統妨礙司法公正,四十年間新聞本質並無多大變化,改變的只是載體由紙本變成電子,興許客觀環境令傳統媒體像《波士頓環球</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">報》甚至易手多時的《華盛頓郵報》那樣吃力經營,卻從未出現家道中落放下原則的窘迫,原因很簡單,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">make
this paper essential to readers</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的顛撲不破真理在於大法官伯拉克所言的「揭露政府欺騙」仍然放諸四海皆準,永不褪色,歷久常新。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-26600241545047586412016-03-05T21:59:00.002-08:002016-03-05T21:59:57.957-08:00峯村健司: 《站上十三億人的頂端:習近平掌權之路》序章<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="http://pgw.udn.com.tw/gw/photo.php?u=http://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/2016/01/31/1/1785281.jpg&sl=W&fw=400&exp=3600" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://pgw.udn.com.tw/gw/photo.php?u=http://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/2016/01/31/1/1785281.jpg&sl=W&fw=400&exp=3600" height="320" width="213" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 我耗費整整一年時間追尋的那個女孩子,如今就在眼前。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 湧現的衝動幾乎支配了我,迫不及待想衝向她身邊的同時,我拚命壓抑住這份激昂的情緒,一動不動地等待著。幾分鐘之後,拜訪她、和她接觸的時機即將到來。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 時間是二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一四年五月。迄今為止,我不斷漫無頭緒地打探著據說在美國哈佛大學就讀的習近平獨生女的蹤影。大約從四年前開始,便有消息指出「中國最高領</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">導人的獨生女,正在美國留學」。傳言很快地被加油添醋,傳得沸沸揚揚,包括《紐約時報》在內的美國主要媒體,也派遣人員潛入哈佛大學,試圖暗中尋訪,可是</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">始終無法鎖定確切的對象。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 「這只是個子虛烏有的傳言吧」、「搞不好已經回國,不在哈佛了吧」,隨著這樣的訊息逐漸傳開,來查訪的媒體也愈來愈少。當然,我必須老實說,對於「習近平的女兒來美國念書」這樣的消息,就連我自己也是半信半疑。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 中國,是對美國超強地位虎視耽耽的敵手,雙方的軍隊更是將彼此視為頭號假想敵之一。然而,中國軍隊最高領導人的女兒居然會在這樣一個敵對的國家、而且是在培育美國最菁英人才的哈佛大學就讀,這實在是令人難以置信的事情。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 對於嚴格管控訊息的中國而言,習近平的獨生女在美國媒體面前曝光,毫無疑問是最必須避免的事態;就常理來思考,她也沒有理由承擔著這樣的風險前往美國才對。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 只是,中國是一個總會讓人發出「竟然如此」的驚歎聲、不可思議的國家;也正因如此,對採訪者而言,它才更充滿難以言喻魅力的題材。當各位讀者展卷閱讀</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本書之際,或許也能窺見這樣的心境之一斑吧!這次的事件也是如此;原本屢屢碰壁、只能暫時放棄尋找的習近平獨生女身影,卻在極其意外的情況下,被我牢牢掌</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">握在手中。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 然後,此刻,她就在我眼前,正和同學們談笑風生。等到談笑暫告一個段落之際,我邁開腳步,走向她所在的地方。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 十公尺、五公尺、三公尺</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我們之間的距離,慢慢地、不斷地縮短。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 能夠命中目標的時機,唯有此刻。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 關於這件事的始末,我將其記載在本書第二章,還請各位讀者不吝詳讀。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 這次的突擊採訪究竟是成功抑或失敗,其實很難斷定;不過,縱使如此,在我心中那種異樣的充實感,以及洶湧澎湃的情緒,卻直至今日依然縈繞不去。不論成敗,對所有採訪者而言,「現場取材」,都是一切的最根本,對我而言自然也是如此。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 然而,除了這點以外,還有另一個讓這種激昂情緒愈發沸騰的原因,那就是:在中國這個嚴密管控資訊的國家之下,避開中國共產黨的監視耳目去進行現場採訪,基本上被視為是一種嚴重的禁忌行為,至於對黨幹部之類高層的突擊採訪,那就更不在話下了。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 在日本,有關中國方面的新聞報導,當然有一大部分是從當地新聞媒體上取材,就算是立場傾向批判中國當局的媒體,在報導時也很容易一不小心就被經中共過</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">濾後的報導與資訊牽著鼻子走。或許是對這種資訊封閉情況的反彈吧,以「難以進行現場取材」為由,完全忽視現實狀況,僅僅把中國當成是一個「未知的國度」,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大肆談論它的「異常」之處,這類號稱為「論」的報導和書籍,在市面上也多如過江之鯽。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 於是,當我在閱讀有關中國的報導時,總會產生某種違和感;那是一種既不存在「當事人」,也不存在所謂「現場」的空洞。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 因此,這本書是我以最真實確切的感受,親筆記錄下來的產物。在這本書中,沒有憑空臆測,唯一存在的,就只有一心一意奔赴「現場」後,在那裡發生的「現實」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 自二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">七年五月起的五年又十個月間,我以朝日新聞社北京特派記者的身分,不斷追逐著這個巨大鄰國的脈動。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">七年與二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一二年舉行的兩次共產黨大會,以及二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">八年的北京奧運,我都得以躬逢其盛;二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年導致中日關係惡化的中國冷凍水餃含毒事件,以及二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一二年四處掀起的反日風暴,我也都站在最前線,親眼目睹了這一切。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 不管是怎樣的新聞現場或是採訪會見,在它們背後,都可以察覺到某種隱隱流動的暗流。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">──</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那就是,權力鬥爭。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 記者會上的中國官員,就算說詞明顯漏洞百出,還是死命強辯;所謂的「元老」,明明已經引退不知多少年,卻在每次人事異動時期逼近之際,便坐著輪椅現身台前,以顯示其存在感</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">凡此種種都令人深刻地感受到,深埋在這些人的DNA當中,那份對於權力的強烈執著。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 在表面上,中國共產黨一向都是「全體一致」的;不管是人事或者政策,全都是透過平和的對話與討論來決定。在官方媒體上,永遠看不見「政爭」或「派閥」之類的字眼。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 然而,在這種平和的表面下,隱藏的其實是血流成河、永無止盡的激烈攻防。新的犧牲者不斷不斷地浮現;用「死鬥」來形容這樣的鬥爭,一點都不為過。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 在一黨統治下的中國,法律與規則往往被視若無睹。唯有黨內鬥爭的勝利者,才能憑藉自己的好惡去解釋法律,並依照對自己有利的方式來運用規則,至於鬥爭中的失敗者,只能坐以待斃,默然等待勝者的裁決。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 當我在北京採訪的時候,我認為這種權力鬥爭必然會縮短中國共產黨的壽命,並且最終導致該政權瓦解崩潰。事實上,我們也可以清楚看見,在毛澤東和鄧小平這類充滿個人魅力的領導者過世之後,中共的黨內鬥爭便日趨激烈。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 在這樣的混沌與混亂之中被選為領導者的,正是習近平。他是在缺乏最高實力者的情況下,各方勢力經過檯面下的激烈交鋒鬥爭之後,妥協出來的產物。正因如此,我當時認為習近平的權力基礎相當脆弱,並且預測在不久的將來,他的寶座便會產生動搖。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 然而,當我從中國返回日本,從檻外之地重新審視整體情勢時,浮現在我眼前的,卻是一幅彷彿錯覺藝術般的畫面。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一三年夏天,我擔任北京特派記者任務暫告一段落,隨即接受哈佛大學邀聘,以客座研究員的身分前往該校,任職的單位是哈佛大學費正清中國研究中心</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。這是由該校已故的中國現代史教授</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">John
King Fairbank</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">於一九五五年設立的研究所,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Fairbank</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">教授的中文名字是「費正清」,因以這間研究所便被稱為「費正清中國研究中心」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">對中國人而言,這或許是最著名的外國研究機構之一。除了學者之外,還有許多來自世界各地的政府官員與新聞記者在此進行研究;因此,我的同事雖然是以美國人和中國人為主,不過也可以看到德國、韓國、英國人等各種不同的面孔。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 費正清中心經常會邀集全美國從事中國研究的學者與政府相關人士,舉辦研究會與討論會。包括卡特政府的國家安全顧問布里辛斯基(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Zbigniew
Kazimierz Brzeziński</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),前國防部副部長助理、現任哈佛大學教授約瑟夫</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "PMingLiU","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: PMingLiU;">‧</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">奈爾(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Joseph
Samuel Nye, Jr.</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),以及現役的美軍幹部等形形色色的來賓,也會共襄盛舉。討論會的主題涵蓋甚廣,從引發中日兩國嚴重對立的釣魚台(尖閣)問題,一直到中國的不動產</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">泡沫危機都包含其中。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 中國的黨政官員,也是費正清研究中心邀請的對象。對中國人而言,「哈佛」是海外最有名的大學,因此中國重量級人士訪美之際,往往也會順道前往哈佛進行</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">研究。費正清中心做為接待這些要人的主要機構,其重要工作之一就是為這些人籌劃演講的內容與演說場所。在這些訪客當中,也包括了我擔任北京特派記者的時候</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">屢屢提出採訪申請,卻始終無法得見的重要官員。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 或許是暫時脫離了本國的嚴密監視、踏足自由國土之故吧,這些官員演講的時候,往往會觸及到某些在國內無法明言、關於政府和黨的敏感內容。在他們的反覆論述中,我可以清楚感受到一件事情,那就是:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <b>權力鬥爭,或許正是中國共產黨永續存在的原動力。</b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 回顧中共的歷史,自一九二一年組黨以來,路線對立與鬥爭便始終不曾停止:毛澤東為了掌握權力而引發反右鬥爭與文化大革命,身為毛澤東後繼者的華國鋒與鄧小平之間的政爭,然後是鄧小平與保守派高幹之間,以改革開放為爭論核心而展開的對立</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……<br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 一部中國共產黨史,可以說正是由敵對派系之間的衝突所建構而成的。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 不只如此,這種鬥爭並不只限於黨的高層,事實上,打從黨員入黨的那一瞬間,鬥爭便開始了。隨著地位逐漸爬升,鬥爭的激烈程度也愈形增加;不管爬到什麼樣的高位,都必須持續著只許勝利、不許失敗的鬥爭,這就是他們的宿命。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 同時,這就意味著,在這樣的機制下,無時無刻都會產生難以計數的「失敗者」。「敗北」兩字,是不時壓在這些人肩頭的沉重負擔。這種一邊畏懼著敗北的恐怖,一邊拚命往上攀爬的心境,或許正是驅使著身為世界第二大國的中國,不斷朝著未來邁進的動力吧!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 從這個角度來看,我們對於習近平的評價也必須有所改變。身為史無前例的激烈鬥爭中最後的勝出者,習近平不只具備了對中國共產黨而言最強大的正統性,同時我們也可以說,相較於歷代的領導者,他是權力基礎最快獲得穩定的一人。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 美國專研中國問題的專家以及政府相關人士,對於習近平都給予了極高的評價;然而,我們必須省思的是,這樣的評價是否過於溢美了呢?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 習近平將會以怎樣的方式,立足於十三億人民的頂點呢?他將會將這個大國,導向什麼方向呢?他的統治對包括日本在內的全世界,又會產生怎樣的影響呢?透過筆者親身所見所聞的事實,本書希望能針對這些問題,提供一定的解答。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-42102952267880774762016-03-05T21:57:00.002-08:002016-03-05T21:57:34.542-08:00【讀書好×果籽】恐懼鬥室:中共存在的原動力<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2012</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月胡錦濤向共產黨高層幹部表示將卸下所有職務,包括軍委會主席一職,決定「裸退」,終止了「垂簾聽政」。這本來不是胡的算盤,而是十年來與</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">江澤民的激烈鬥爭下,到了最後攤牌階段所採取的同歸於盡方法。在十八大召開前九個月,發生薄熙來親信王立軍叛逃,胡認為這是對付江派良機,因薄是江扶植上</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">位,胡認為要追究責任,政治局常委中江派四人反對,胡派四人支持,習近平投下關鍵贊成票,支持胡錦濤。其實薄熙來真正罪行,是指派王立軍竊聽總書記枱頭</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「紅線電話」,即共產黨高層訊息傳播的直線,這就是王立軍起訴書中所列的「違法使用技術偵查措施」所指。作者認為胡借查辦薄案劍指江派另一猛將周永康。接</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">着的北戴河會議,胡滿懷信心提出十八大人事安排。殊不知當一切按胡劇本上演之際,江澤民突然發難,提出胡的親信大內總館令計劃兒子法拉利車禍中,調動中央</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">警衞局的「嚴重問題」,江派人馬集體借勢發圍,直指胡身為上司也要問責。結果,在調查令計劃時再發現他參與了薄熙來一手所導演的中南海竊聽風雲。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">本土民主前線的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">梁天琦在剛過去的立法會新東選區補選,取得了</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">6</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬多票,豪言足以與泛民和建制鼎足而立,三分天下。有人認為激進本土派頭腦發熱,高估了自己實力。當然,梁</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">天琦在新東這個深受水貨客困擾的地區取得佳績,不一定意味本土派可以在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月立法會全港性選舉中,同樣可以取得廣泛支持。人民力量、社民連以至新民主同盟,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這些票源相近、同樣主打本土議題的政團,如何回應本民前的成功搶灘,是一項變數。而日前已急不及待宣布參選的所謂本土派「大佬」,究竟是會令所有本土派兩</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">敗俱傷,還是能夠把餅做大,皆大歡喜,也是難以預測。况且,還有鼓吹前途自決的學民思潮組黨參選的可能,選情就更加混亂。換言之,激進本土派的表現究竟只</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是虛火,還是變天先兆,這刻還是說不準。不過,糾纏於得票多少去評論這股力量的影響力,可能一開始便是問錯了問題。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以得票評論影響力</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或問錯問題</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">立法會議席多少,從來都不是激進本土派政團的最重要抗爭手段。對</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">他們來說,更關鍵的是他們所創造出來的抗爭倫理和政治氛圍,已足以牽着泛民的鼻子走,左右大局。現今在立法會,主張以顛倒議事常規等出格方法的議員,其實</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">來來去去就只有兩三個,但其他泛民多數會乖乖和應,順從配合。傳統泛民之所以會沿着這股情緒走下去,是因為他們感受到一種主張「造反有理」的本地政治文化</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">正在快速冒起。這股前所未有的全面否定現有政治秩序的躁動民情,令長期專注議會選舉主導、努力在一國兩制之下尋找空間的傳統泛民,感到無所適從,也開始感</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">到時不與我。佔中</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">79</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日中泛民差不多全程靠邊站的痛苦經驗,也進一步強化了這種自我否定感覺。不少長期處於壓抑狀態、政治上苦無出路的青年人,把造成眼前</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">困局的部分責任,歸咎於傳統泛民,也把希望都投射在任何新面孔上,即使有時這種期望與相關人物在現實中的政治實力,並不完全成比例。例如,在區選中只拿了</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">數萬票的新興政團,已被捧為「未來希望」,而未經考驗參選失敗的政治素人,也會被視為政壇新星。但不管是否有客觀事實支持,這種熱中政治的年輕群組的集體</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">主觀期望和想象,已足以教傳統泛民膽怯心寒,認為必須向年輕人靠攏,才是生存之道。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這種情緒,不單反映在立法會氛圍和選舉策略上,也體現在</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">政黨內部分歧之中。例如民主黨的不少「乳鴿」,早已認為現時的領導層是自己政途的包袱,所以在黨慶上也語帶雙關地來一場大佬們「金盆洗手」的場景,「逼</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">宮」情切,急不及待。而劉慧卿日前被誤報失言,在未搞清楚事實前,在網上帶頭圍攻劉慧卿的,不少也是民主黨的明日之星。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月後立法會</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">激進本土派議席會否倍增、誰人當選,其實並不重要。因為可以肯定,各泛民政黨必然會加入更多合乎年輕人口味、更突顯中港衝突、更激進的議題在其政綱當中,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不自覺地進一步強化了激進主張的影響力。在傳統泛民虛怯迷失的精神狀態下,一個相信激進本土派已成主流的自我實現預言(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">self-fulfilling
prophecy</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),已是無可避免。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「革命」和傳統社運的運作邏輯</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那麼,激進的主張又何以能迅速在社會生根呢?中港矛盾、梁</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">振英劣政、社會不公、對制度徹底失望、「和理非非無用論」等原因,很多人都說過,在此不打算重複;而「城邦建國」,以至「港人自決」是否出路,也待日後有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">機會再談。但激進主義的語言,從來就有一種「浪漫」的吸引力。以身殉道、對抗暴政、為理想「寧為玉碎,不作瓦全」、大衛挑戰巨人、雞蛋面對高牆等豪言壯</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">語,已成為了很多面對現實政治中的種種荒誕場面的港人的心靈雞湯,以此宣泄情緒撫慰心情。激進派的「革命」論述,也引伸出一套有異於傳統社運的運作邏輯。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">進行「革命」,重點不在於是否有主流的支持,而在於誰人掌握「真理」。有大眾認同固然是好事,但假如為群眾唾棄,也只是罪在這群「港豬」仍未覺醒。面對主</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">流媒體批評攻擊,他們也深信只要「真理」在手,便應無所畏懼,甚至可以全面進行反擊,哪怕你是本地傳統媒體龍頭大戶</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">TVB</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,反正他們也覺有自己的天地,隨</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">手可在社交媒體中穩住十萬八萬群眾的支持,有了這群關鍵小眾的認同,「革命」還是可以繼續進行下去。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但這種「革命」思想的魅力,還在於它永</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">遠可以自圓其說,總是可以在論述上立於「不敗之地」。這種激進思維,說到底只是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2010</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年五區公投派的「谷爆論」的延續。這種策略,主張透過顛覆常態去令</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">政府施政失效,或激發更大的打擊,令民怨加劇從而導致更大的矛盾衝突。這種惡性循環不斷走下去,直至去到一個臨界點,中央政府覺得成本太高,最終便會讓</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">步。中央到哪種情况才會讓步、社會要付出多少代價,從來沒有人說清楚,但有趣的地方在於不論在哪一種局面下,激進派始終可以自圓其說,表示成功。因為假如</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">當政者拒絕讓步,衝突繼續升級,民怨升溫自然長遠有利抗爭,「官逼民反」之說更可說得振振有詞;相反,當權者願意稍作退讓,他們也可以自誇其成張揚領功,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">證明暴力手段收效,「革命」有理。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與此相比,主張對話妥協的人則永遠處於一種「劣勢」,就是他們的起點往往只能建基於一個退而求其次的主調</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">上,只可在「各方讓一步」的邏輯下討價還價,在種種次優選擇間艱苦琢磨。即使最終能取得共識,成果也絕不會是大家心目中的最理想的方案。而談判失敗的話,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">則馬上證明了「和理非非」只是自討苦吃、政治無知的行為。溫和派的宿命,是必須在特定的時空、種種局限下去作出取捨,成敗得失總會即時呈現眼前,而永遠沒</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有革命派所擁有的自圓其說、難以用實證去否定的空間。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">北京必須明白一點,要處理現時所面對的激進派,並不可能是以傳統單靠打壓的思維可以奏</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">效。因為他們的影響,不在於議席多少,所以即使中央有龐大的選舉機器去動員選票,真的能把他們繼續壓為議會少數,其實意義也不大。他們也不在乎輿論制約,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">還以為用傳統控制傳媒的方法以求令激進聲音滅聲,又甚至以抹黑揭秘方式去進行人格謀殺,便可處理情况,只是自欺欺人,無視現實。要以嚴刑峻法去增加激進派</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的抗爭成本,是所有當權者面對挑戰時的本能反應,但這大概可能只會成就更多抗爭者成為革命英雄,而激進派新面孔總是在加強打壓的情况之下,迅速冒出頭來。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">須證明「和理非非」不是笑話</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">最理想的解決辦法,當然是中央重新檢討過去的治港策略為何失效,想想梁振英治下為何民怨沸騰,徹底地糾正過左的思路,不要再動輒把中港矛盾放到國家安全的層次去考慮,從根本去解決香港亂局,這是所有關心香港的人所期盼。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">退</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而求其次,北京至少要努力爭取民心,令港人再次相信在一國兩制之下,仍有享有公平合理、合乎尊嚴的政治秩序的可能性,才能抵制激進思潮抬頭。我依然深信暴</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">力手段並非社會主流,而部分激進本土派也絕非單純是關心高度自治和民主發展等議題的力量,當中不少根本就是思想狹隘偏激排外的團體,而市民大眾大部分人也</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不願意參與其中。但不容否認的,是對這種暴力傾向持「無可無不可」態度的市民,數目卻正在上升。特別在求變心切的年輕人的群組中,願意為這種「無底線抗</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">爭」行為搖旗吶喊,又或者默默嘉許的,也絕對不是少數。要令這班「圍觀」的人回心轉意,拒絕暴力,切斷激進主義的供應線,必須要令市民相信在激進手段以</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">外、在現有秩序之下,還是有解決問題的空間和可能,給他們證明「和理非非」不是笑話,而是出路。唯有如此,偏激狹隘的暴力主張的苖頭才會枯萎凋零,理性的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">聲音才有運作的空間。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-90545908966986517492016-03-05T21:56:00.001-08:002016-03-05T21:56:14.922-08:00曾鈺成: 古音格律<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">教授中國語音「聲調」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">包括粵語九聲和普通話四聲</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的一種方法,用</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">5</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的數字表示「調值」:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是最低音,相當於大調音階的第一音</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">do</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">;</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">5</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">依</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次為</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">re</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">me</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">fa</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">so</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。按這個表示法,粵音裡的第一聲「陰平」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如「東」、「江」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,是「高平調」或「高降調」,調值是「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">55</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」或「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">53</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">用粵語朗誦詩詞,如果句末的押韻字是陰平聲,可讀成「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">51</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」,聽起來有完結的感覺效果;例如「兩岸猿聲啼不住,輕舟已過萬重山。」的「山」,「但願人長久,千里共嬋娟。」的「娟」,朗讀時作「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">51</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」,都有圓滿終結的感覺。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">粵音的第四聲「陽平」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">(</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如「微」、「寒」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">)</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,是「低平調」,調值「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」,放在詩詞句末做押韻字,同樣有完結的感覺效果。例如「姑蘇城外寒山寺,夜半鐘聲到客船。」的「船」,「剪不斷,理還亂,是離愁。別有一番滋味在心頭。」的「頭」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-72894143178437716572016-03-05T21:55:00.002-08:002016-03-05T21:55:42.050-08:00蘇鑰機:「亂」的名字 「暴」的姓氏<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年初一晚發生的旺角事件至今已有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">星期,它是香港政治生態演變中的一件大事,大家仍在議論。其中對事件的性質有不同看法,政府和新聞媒體有兩大類的論述。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日年初二,特首梁振英及林鄭月娥、黎棟國、盧偉聰等一眾高官會見傳媒,譴責有關人士破壞法紀,並將事件</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">定性為「暴亂」。根據當日的政府新聞公報,他們共用了「暴亂」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">16</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次,「騷亂」則有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">7</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">次。梁振英回應傳媒時說:「在任何一個城市發生類似的事件,社會,不</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">單止政府,都會把它定性為暴亂。而事實上,今日幾個小時之前,新聞界作出有關的報道時,已經是用同樣的字眼。」</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不同類型媒體對旺角事件的取態</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">麼新聞界如何稱呼旺角事件?端傳媒記者趙燕婷在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">17</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日寫了一篇報道(〈暴亂?衝突?香港媒體怎樣稱呼「旺角騷亂」〉),總結了</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">35</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">家香港媒體(包括報</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">章、電台、電視和網媒)怎樣稱呼此事。結果顯示,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">17</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">家媒體用「騷亂」,</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">家媒體選取「暴亂」,其餘的就用「衝突」、「暴動」和「魚蛋革命」。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">果將事件性質分類為程度較輕的「衝突」或「騷亂」(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),和較嚴重的「暴亂」或「暴動」(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">B</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),根據趙燕婷的統計(表</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),傳統報紙中採用</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">家而</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">B
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">家,但網上報紙的</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">B</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">數目相應是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">11</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,電台的數目則是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">0</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,而電視就是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。上述的比數,說明了不同類型媒體對此事的取態,並反映了它們</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的政治立場。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">各形容詞意指不同嚴重程度</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">查看《現代漢語詞典》及維基百科,各形容詞意指不同的嚴重程度。最輕微的是「衝突」:</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">矛盾表面化、發生激烈爭鬥、不協調。「騷亂」的意義是混亂不安、社會不同階層或階層內部的衝突與對立。較嚴重的是「暴亂」:破壞社會秩序的武裝騷動和行兇</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">作亂。而「暴動」則為某階級或集團為了破壞當時的政治制度、社會秩序而採取的武裝行動。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">比較兩者的英文翻譯,「騷亂」最常見的相應詞彙是</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">riot</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」(暴力的社會失序)、「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">disturbance</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」(有行動令公眾地方失去秩序)、「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">turbulence</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」(混亂及不規則的變化)。比較而</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">言,「暴亂」的詞彙是「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">riot</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」、「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">rebellion</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」(拒絕服從命令或秩序)、「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">revolt</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」(在短期內要基本改變社會組織結構)。可見「騷亂」</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和「暴亂」有相通之處(「</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">riot</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">」),也有不同的意義,而兩者的嚴重性有些差別。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">電子新聞傳媒和網上媒體之前的報道,要用較多力氣去尋找</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和統計,而傳統報紙的報道則較容易在慧科新聞資料庫中一併找到。表</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是事發後</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">星期裏香港各傳統報紙的報道文章標題中,有使用上述</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">個關鍵字詞的情况。表</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中並按所選字詞之間的比例,作出先後排列。表中同時列出來自不同地區報紙相關報道的新聞數目和比例。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">港報傾向「暴亂」論述</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">台報採「衝突」為主線</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">表</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> 2</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">顯示,在所有新聞標題中以「暴亂」最多,相信是因為特區政府一開始已經對此事作出如此定性有關。其次是「暴動」,原因是後來陸續有示威者被捕及被控暴動</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">罪,因此也較常出現這個詞語。「騷亂」和「衝突」的出現頻率較低,它們與「暴亂」和「暴動」的比例約為</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">與</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">之間。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">香港傳統報紙的取態值得留意。依照它們採取</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">B</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">兩組字詞的比例,可見有明確分野,散佈成為一個清晰的政治意見光譜,一邊是傾向採用政府的定義,另一邊則不甚認同官方的論述。而各報在這個光譜中的位置,和大家對這些報刊政治立場的估計頗為脗合。</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">比</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">較不同地區傳統報紙的報道和用詞比例,整體而言香港報紙明顯以</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">傾向官方的「暴亂」論述,而台灣報紙卻低於</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,並採用「衝突」為主線。新加坡及馬</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">來西亞的中文報紙則介乎香港與台灣的報紙之間,稍為多用「暴亂」作主軸。大陸報紙的報道中,雷同程度極高,多是直接採用中新社等官方通訊社所發的稿件內</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">容,而且「騷亂」與「暴亂」的比例接近</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。澳門報紙的情况相似,只是比例略低,但仍達</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">傳統與新一代看法差異大</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">複雜的新聞事件中,政府對事件的定性往往最有影響力。根據政府對旺角事件的「暴亂」論述,示威者就是使用「暴力」的「暴徒」,他們於是干犯了「暴動罪」。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這個官方統一口徑自然被很多新聞界引用。記者及市民對今次事件「亂」的名字沒有爭議,但它應是姓「暴」還是姓「騷」,卻有明顯分歧。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新聞媒</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">體當然對事件各有判斷和取向,它們也可參照議員、專家和其他社會領袖的看法。以前新聞傳媒當中有個別「精英機構」在擔任「意見領袖」的角色,但今天較難有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這種局面了;特別是傳統紙媒和網上媒體的取向頗為不同,它們好像存在於兩個不同世界,為新舊兩個群組服務,傳統的「主流意見」(如有的話)和網上新一代的</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">看法有很大差異。</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">民意合久必分</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但分久未必會合</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">示威者的論述框架肯定不一樣,對事件的成因、動機、過程和影響有自身的解讀。</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">他們可能認為警方使用的才是暴力,自己只是「以武制暴」。但誰武誰暴、誰是誰非,結論會因不同人的立場而有別。市民大眾的看法也很紛紜,除了大家普遍對暴</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">力行為不表認同之外,對事件的起因、誰要負責及如何善後,相信也存在不同甚至對立的看法。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在今日的香港,民意合久必分,但分久未必會合。不要說可以達至和諧社會,能夠多些共識也有極高難度。香港如何能走出惡性循環,重回正軌,是大多數人的願望;但這和現實的情况剛好相反。大家雖然立場不同,畢竟同坐一條船,彼此是否要有多些創意、諒解、溝通和妥協?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">作者是香港中文大學新聞與傳播學院教授</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-13707484879387811382016-03-05T21:54:00.001-08:002016-03-05T21:54:45.676-08:00程翔: 「梁天琦現象」淺析<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在上周日立法會新界東補選中獲六萬多票(佔總票數約</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">16%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)的本土民主前線</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(以下簡稱本民前)候選人梁天琦,成為耀眼新星。按照這個氣勢,他在九月新一屆立法會選舉中奪得一席位應沒有什麼問題。這是在年初一「旺角事件」後第一次</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大型選舉,一個被當局視為「暴徒」人,卻受到出乎意料的支持(投票前最樂觀的估計是奪得約</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">10%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的總票數),這個現象值得北京和香港當局深刻反省。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">主張以「勇武抗爭無底線」的手段,爭取「獨立建國不妥協」的本民前的出現,標誌著香港政治勢力已經出現三分天下:建</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">制、泛民、本土。本土派從保存本土歷史文物發端(以</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2007</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年保護皇后碼頭為標誌),到維護本土利益(以</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2010</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年高鐵撥款事件為標誌),到建立理論架構</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(以</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2011</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年陳雲的《香港城邦論》為標誌)、到迅速紮根(以</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2014</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年雨傘運動為標誌),到今年</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月很可能進入議會,前後僅僅</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年左右,堪稱異軍突起,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">特別是本民前宣布參選以來僅僅二個月,便奪下</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">6</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬票,更令全港政壇驚愕。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「港獨」勢力的急劇冒起,究其原因大概有三:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第一,自從</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1997</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年回歸以來中共對香港「一國兩制」的承諾不斷褪色,「一國」對「兩制」的壓力越來越大,使香港人特別在意的「兩制」的空間越來越小。這就促使香港新一代要起來捍衛自己的制度。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第二,整整一代人在過去三十多年(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1982-2014</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年)通過「和平理性非暴力」的手段爭取「民主回歸」的目標徹底失敗,這就迫使年青一代思考新的路子。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">第三,大陸的「惡性崛起」(指把「一黨專政」的意識形態病毒隨著經濟的強勢而散播全球,文化人何頻稱之為「中國式病毒」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">[1]</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)令香港的中國人非但不以</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中國人身份為榮,反而以之為恥。例如在推銷國民教育時,硬銷中共為「進步、無私與團結的執政集團」等讓人噁心的做法。在這個問題上不但香港人不願意做中國</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人,就連大陸的人民也有高達</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">65%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的人也表示「來生不做中國人」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">[2]</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但是,中共似乎仍然未能了解「香港獨立」思潮是如何形成,仍然歸咎於殖民地影響、外國勢力干預等等似是而非的所謂「理由」。因此他們的解決方案,仍然是老舊的「加強青年愛國主義教育」,而所謂「愛國」,在最近習近平的論述中更直接等同「愛黨」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">30</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日,習近平在中共中央政治局第二十九次集體學習時強調要「大力弘揚偉大愛國主義精神,為實現中國夢提供精神支柱」。他說:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「祖國的命運和黨的命運、社會主義的命運是密不可分的。只有堅持愛國和愛黨、愛社會主義相統一,愛國主義才是鮮活的、真實的,這是當代</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span></i><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中國愛國主義精神最重要的體現。今天我們講愛國主義,這個道理要經常講、反復講</span></i><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">”</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。。。不斷增強對偉大祖國、中華民族、中華文化、中國共產黨、中國特色社</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span></i><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">會主義的認同。」</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">換言之,想要「愛國」,則必須確認兩個公式:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1 </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「愛國」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
= </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「愛黨」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> = </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「愛社會主義」;</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2 </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「認同祖國」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
= </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「認同中國共產黨」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> = </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「認同社會主義」</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在這兩個公式下,一般正常思維的人又怎樣能夠願意「愛國」呢?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">習近平講話後,中共教育部黨組</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">19</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日向各省、自治區、直豁市下達檔:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《中共教育部黨組關於教育系統深入開展愛國主義教育的實施意見》,其中第三條要求強化對台灣及香港、澳門學生的「愛</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">國主義教育力度」,包括舉辦相關的「國民教育系列活動」,強調愛國主義教育的「主旋律」是「愛黨、愛國、愛社會主義」。方法是舉辦「萬人計畫」,即:一,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">邀請港澳青少年到內地參訪國</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">民教育系列活動;二,實施港澳與內地高校師生交流計畫;三,對台方面則是「舉辦對台教育交流項目」、四,「邀請台灣師生來大陸參加活動」等等。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">這種以「洗腦」為特點的「萬人計畫」,豈不是更加令港人離心離德?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">*************</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">[1]</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「中國式病毒」最早由明鏡新聞出版集團總裁何頻,於</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">6</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日在美國國會的中國委員會聽證會上提出,指中華人民共和國利用其國際影響力造成的問題,例如中國模式侵入西方社會,腐化了西方的價值觀,造成人權及世界文明的退化。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
[2]</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2006</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日,「網易文化」發起了調查,題為「如果有來生,你願不願意再做中國人?」。在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">12</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">天裡,有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">65%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的人稱再不願意成為中國人,調查後來被中國當局禁止。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-89888250767172764592016-03-05T21:52:00.001-08:002016-03-05T21:52:20.377-08:00林行止: 仁超遠矣志明在懷 主流大晒公道何來<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3158258962747780751" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">甲、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">沒想到離港不數日,便相繼發生幾樁與《信報》和筆者有關的事,此中最意料不及的,當然是志明老弟病故。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在外地機場,收到女兒給她母親的電話,說「曹叔叔走了!星期天的事</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。」到了候機室,又看到數位報館的先後同事,包括前任和現任總編輯陳景祥和郭艷明給</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">內子的相關短訊。郭女士問筆者夫婦可會寫幾句哀悼的說話,趕不及回覆便要匆匆登機;後來才看到《信報》隨後有個紀念曹仁超的專輯。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">對筆者而言,「曹仁超」是個筆名,女兒嘴裏的「曹叔叔」,是我喊了幾十年「阿曹」的曹志明。以傳統老套的說話,阿曹與筆者「相識於微時」,當年筆者是負責</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《明報》(晚報和日報)財經新聞版,對於有投稿人以「童體字」書寫的來稿,初不以為意,稍後細讀,才發覺其文字雖不老練,評論卻貼市、直率、富創意,並非人云亦云,甚有可觀;遂約他「飲茶」,哪知這位對市情及上市公司財務狀況頗為嫻熟的作者,竟是個言詞簡約、笑容靦腆,顯然是入世未深遑論老於世故的小伙子</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">曹志明,和後來發福的長相迥異。四五十年前,由於市場需求不大,樂意為報章撰寫股市評論的人,屈指可數,志明正是筆者存心物色招納的人才</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">志明聰敏好學和勤奮(任勞任怨也許更貼切),很快成為「名筆」。事實上,招攬他成為「拍檔」,是筆者的明智抉擇,而志明對於他能夠與筆者共事數十年,亦有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">同感,那從他為《信報》二十五周年報慶特刊撰寫那篇真情流露的文章見之。他用曹仁超為筆名,廣為讀者所知,惟知道他還用思聰、鄭植林等名字撰稿的,未必很</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">多;在工作上,志明對筆者的「無懨需索」,一直有求必應,他花開數枝的專欄筆墨,正是《信報》財經版贏來良好口碑的基礎!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">共事三十多年,志明和筆者在工作上可說合作無間,他的名堂響了之後,亦從無主動提出這種那樣的回報要求,無論參股、分紅、「分房產」以至賣股權,都是不</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「加」意見便笑瞇瞇地喜而納之。正如當他秘書二十多年的鄺女士說︰「曹</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Sir</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大方不計較,很易相處</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。」和他共事的同事,見過面、談過話的讀者,相信對</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">此都有同感;其隨和與友善,亦反映到他與財經版的「後勤小組」(研究部門)的長期合作愉快上。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《信報》股權於二</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">○○</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">六年年底分階段轉手,筆者退出報社,只寫專欄;志明留任,保持其全神投入工作的固有作風和熱誠,與新班子如魚得水</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">……</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在新公司「打造」下,以寫「日記」享盛名的老曹,很快便從「投資者」的身份變為洞明財勢股市的「民間股神」,現身論壇、出席講座、大量出書以至登台做戲、</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">宣傳走埠,八寶盡出而應付裕如,其長女悼念乃父的文章說他「一生精采豐富」,一點亦不誇張。而這連串的推廣宣傳,因為形象鮮明叫座,不但對報館有利,亦令</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">阿曹躊躇自得、沾沾自喜。忘我地投入「股神」的角色,畢竟與伏案寫文章只要勤奮動腦筋的代價不同,變成公眾人物,曹志明豈會全無付出?事實是,無論在體力</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">上、精神上以至言詞間,阿曹都有「透支」甚至「超支」的痕跡。期間筆者發覺阿曹談出身、說舊事,不少都與筆者過去認識數十年的曹志明大有出入!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">「股神傳奇」愈推愈高的一些「離地奇談」和「無中生有」,不免包含若干與《信報》和筆者有關的舊事,不盡不實的誤傳,一再發生;筆者和內子不得已的事實澄清,在不解內情的旁觀者尤其是好事播弄者看來,便是幾十年交情一朝斷!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">工作投入、演戲入戲,那是阿曹過去一直引以為傲的本色,可是切實人生與虛應故事的交織糾纏,真假裏外關係的遠近親疏,令三十多年交好共事的善緣變得不實不在。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在外地聽到阿曹的死訊時,還能思潮起伏,回首舊日瑣憶;回港看到訃聞上不只是括號內的曹仁超而是曹志明時,方切實感到老友大別,一念俱往矣,只覺痛惜!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">乙、</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大約半年前退出公民黨、辭去立法會的前議員湯家驊,其留下的空缺,在去周日舉行的立法會新界東補選中,回歸公民黨,由年輕一輩的楊岳橋補上。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新界東是一個大選區,範圍包括人口密集的將軍澳、沙田、大埔和上水等;區內住民的「階級」代表性均勻,登記選民接近一百萬,雖然補選議員的任期只有半年,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可是參與角逐的卻有七位之多。選舉當日,共有四十多萬選民投票,代表泛民勝出的楊岳橋(公民黨)與未能入局的梁天琦(本土民主前線)分別獲十六多萬及六萬</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">餘票;打響建制派旗號參選、聲勢看似浩大的周浩鼎(民建聯),得票十五多萬,僅以約一萬票敗陣。得票對比,建制與泛民是四六之比,相對激進的本土民主前</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">線,由於得到六萬多票而變為「大有來頭」,舉起了「三分香港政治版圖」的大纛,給很多人帶來新鮮的解讀。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">補選前夕,港人對立法會的長期拉布,感到厭煩和疲累;不少人尤其是親建制派,認為癱瘓議會正常運作,費時失事、浪費資源、拖累民生,這種想法特別是親建制</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的傳媒就此大做文章、口誅筆伐,加上農曆年初二凌晨旺角那場警民衝突暴力過甚,令人擔心會削弱泛民特別是激進反對派的群眾支持,讓建制派坐收漁利,奪走制</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">衡立法會的關鍵性一席,就此破解泛民在分組點票中僅餘的否決權力,加上高速剪布的「蠻力」,改動商議提案的先後次序,近乎修改《議事規則》的「立法</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">話事、通行無阻」,便不難達致。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一般人雖然討厭拉布,可也明白當前特區政府管治失序,政事亂作一團,權力建構的機制蹺蹊,缺乏均衡,是議會人事兩極化和政府「多行不義」的主要原因。建制</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">派盲撐政府,反對派的提議,不管理由多麼充分、「貼地」,因而永不「出頭」。從這次關鍵性一席的補選結果看來,選民是寧願忍受反對派繼續拉布,亦不願見制</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">衡力量進一步萎縮!眾目睽睽,政府對建制派的權力傾斜已嫌過分,少數派的合法否決權怎能輕忽?楊岳橋勝出,立法會議事制衡機制才不致報廢。滿肚密圈、別有</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">懷抱的湯家驊退出公民黨,該黨曾予人以花果飄零的印象,非常明顯,楊岳橋當選對公民黨以至整個泛民陣營是一支強心針,顧全整體泛民力量的有心人,應更珍惜</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一些過去不屑一顧的合作空間和機會,令泛民力量不再那麼分散。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
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</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">未來半年,面對高鐵的超支撥款、新界東北發展計劃</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的推動與「網絡二十三條」重推(?)等,政府與建制派可說「頭大如斗」,一籌莫展的特區政府,可有扭轉乾坤的板斧?民建聯的周浩鼎在敗選後發表了一些「罪</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">己」的話,諸如未夠努力、知名度低和啟動選舉工程太遲之類,只要看一看補選過程和其他參選人,便知周氏所言空泛虛弱。本來,以建制派的聲勢和資源,周浩鼎</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">當選的機會不低,結果卻是無功而回,不僅輸給楊岳橋,就是要和平革命的梁天琦落敗卻是贏滿信心,其得票為總投票率一成半強,如此氣勢,令助選資源充沛、後</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">援部隊強大的周浩鼎,顯得多麼軟弱乏力。梁天琦一句「主流唔係大晒(主流不能決定一切)!」大快人心;反觀周浩鼎那句「行正路」,人們聯想的是行事無方、</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">徇私不正的特區政府,不免要問究竟是哪門子的「正路」?「捨正路而弗由」的楊、梁二君,顯然一人贏得漂亮、一人雖敗猶榮!</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-33559669022357215962016-03-05T21:51:00.001-08:002016-03-05T21:51:36.274-08:00王永平: 港人補選撐激進 特府失民心怎管<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3158258962747780751" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新界東立法會議席補選結果大致符合事前的民調預測。當選的公民黨楊岳橋得票</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">37.2%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,僅勝民建聯周浩鼎(得票</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">34.8%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。旗幟鮮明的本土民主前線(本民前)代表梁天琦排名第</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、得票</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">15.4%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">今次投票的選民全部都清楚本民前是中央指為策動旺角騷亂的激進分離組織,其候選人梁天琦被控「暴動」罪。梁天琦會否被定罪稍後由法庭裁決,但他應該是特首梁振英口中的「暴徒」。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">今次補選的主題是選民如何評價旺角騷亂及特區政府以至中央的治港成績。表面看來,支持特府依法施政的建制派維持原有的支持度。(撇除自由黨的得票率,建制</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">派在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2012</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年新東立法會選舉的得票率與今次補選差不多,都是約</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">35%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。但從另一個角度看,令港人震憾的示威者向警員掟磚頭的畫面,卻沒有導致多了人投</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">票予倡議「行正路」的周浩鼎。相反,聲稱「抗爭無底線」的梁天琦得到</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">15.4%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的投票選民支持。在選舉前一天有份衝擊財委會主席的公民黨,其代表楊岳橋也</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">沒有因此流失選票。下面進一步分析梁、楊兩人的得票率。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">先說梁天琦,我曾引用旺角騷亂後由新思維做的民調,顯示竟然有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">12%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的受訪者認同騷亂。所以梁天琦在補選上拿到</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">15.4%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">選票,符合之前的民調。事實上,</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">根據我的觀察(希望稍後有客觀的民調),部分新東的非建制選民是想投票支持周天琦,只是因為他們不想看到周浩鼎勝出,才策略性地把票轉給勝算較高的楊岳</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">橋。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">投票予梁天琦的選民不一定支持使用暴力,或以武抗暴。但他們肯定是對梁政府的施政,以至警方的執法非常不滿。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新東的北區鄰近內地,較多選民傾向支持非建制派,所以與其他地方選區有點不同。從梁天琦的得票率推算,較泛民激進的本土組織,配上有高學歷及年輕的候選人,會有極大機會在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月份的立法會選舉上拿到</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">5</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">席(即每區一席)。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">楊岳橋在新東補選中成功保著泛民</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">席,顯示溫和黨派(例如民主黨、公民黨,甚至工黨和新民主同盟)的支持者,沒有流向激進本土派。這反映他們接受泛民在立</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">法會內採取日趨激進的行為。例如,我相信很多務實的港人不同意叫停已耗費了幾百億元的高鐵,但他們對泛民拉布並不反感的原因,是對政府工程不斷超支及遲遲</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">沒有提出令人放心的一地兩檢方案更加不滿。況且,他們知道政府一定會在限期前剪布,以及沒有興趣跟隨梁特首的</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">“vote
them out”</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">指示。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不過,新東補選結果對泛民陣營中的激進黨派,例如人民力量、社民連有刺激作用。為了穩著原來的支持者,這批激進派需要進一步激進。經過新東補選,未來的政</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">治版圖已不再是建制與泛民兩元對立這樣簡單,而是一方靠中央維繫的建制派,另一方是包含不同民主立場,有時競爭,有時合作的非建制派。假如以食物的辣度形</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">容新一代的非建制黨派,民主黨、公民黨、工黨、新民主同盟是小辣;人民力量、社民連是中辣;而黃毓民、本民前、熱血公民及其他新興的本土、分離組織是勁</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">辣。聲稱組黨的學民思潮和因為支持楊岳橋而脫離學民思潮的黎汶洛,相信不會改變其非暴力立場,所以他們的新政黨應該是小辣或中辣。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在這個新政治形勢下,倡議第三條或中間路線的黨派前路難行。新思維的黃成智在新東地區工作多年,但在補選上只拿到</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">選票。在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月的立法會選舉上,除非新</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">思維可以派出年輕及個人質素特出的候選人,這個獲梁特首祝賀的政黨可能要賠上保證金。因其辭職而導致新東補選的湯家驊,其成立的民主思路可否發揮政治影響</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">力,視乎它提出的理念和作出的行動能否取得市民或選民的支持,坦白說,沒有一定的民主授權,民主思路只能思(這本身其實不是壞事),卻沒有路。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">新東補選帶出香港未來政局另一個重要關鍵是:港人的投票意慾會否提升。今次補選的投票率是</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">46.1%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,較</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2012</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年立法會選舉的</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">53.8%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">低。這原來屬正</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">常情況。問題是:今天香港並不正常,港人對政府施政難言滿意。近半數選民依然不投票,部分原因是認為此舉沒用,部分是對熟口熟面的政黨或候選人提不起興</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">趣。梁天琦成功吸票的其中一個原因是不少選民(像去年區議會選舉的情況一樣)願意給新人,特別是年輕人一個機會。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">從現在到</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月,我預計不少新政團會受到新東補選結果的鼓舞,積極參政。這有助推高選民登記率(現時整體登記率為</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">73%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,年輕選民(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">至</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">25</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">歲)的登記率僅</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">50%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">),以及在</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月選舉時的投票率(</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2012</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年立法會選舉的投票率為</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">53%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,年輕選民的投票率更低至</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">44%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">)。</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我曾計算過,假如年輕選民的登記率及投票率一併增至</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">7</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">成,投票人數便增多</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">17</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">萬。這個數字在比例代表制下對建制派不利,因為年輕人的選票絕大多數不會投給</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> </span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不能公開反對梁振英的建制派。我不知道政府如何詮釋新東補選反映的民意。關鍵是,中央是否認為特區政府依法懲處暴徒便能維持香港穩定的大局?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"><br />
<br />
</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">當有</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">15%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的選民投票予「暴徒」梁天琦,而</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">37%</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的選民支持變得激進的泛民侯選人時,這難道不是今屆特首及特區政府大失民心的客觀證據?特區政府繼續依法治亂,其餘一切如常,不可能是解決問題的最佳答案吧?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3158258962747780751.post-80807221922295616332016-03-05T21:50:00.000-08:002016-03-05T21:50:49.730-08:00The Opium War : Chapter Nineteen<!--[if !mso]>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">CONCLUSION</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB; mso-no-proof: yes;">
</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The Opium War is a pretty shameful story.
Perhaps it slipped your memory? It certainly hasn’t slipped [China’s] and is
still unravelling.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Guardian</span></i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">, 2010</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">On 28 December 2009, a prisoner of the
Chinese state was driven through the freezing streets of Urumqi to a Public
Detention Centre. The following morning, around 6.30, he was woken and offered
a breakfast of thin rice porridge, and the opportunity to brush his teeth. By
10 a.m., he was delivered, under paramilitary guard, to a mobile ‘death van’,
strapped to a trolley and given a lethal injection.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In some respects, the whole business was
terribly mundane for the People’s Republic of China, which executes somewhere
between 1,700 and 10,000 people every year. In its superficial particulars, the
sentencing would have looked uncontroversial. Smuggling any quantity above
fifty grams of heroin automatically incurs the death penalty; the condemned man
had brought into the country a suitcase containing over four kilograms of the
drug.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">But in other ways, this was an unusual
occurrence. The man, Akmal Shaikh, was an ethnically Pakistani British citizen,
and hence the first European to be executed in China in almost sixty years. He
was, moreover, a Briton whose legal responsibility for the crime in question
was hotly contested by his family and friends. Shaikh, his British defenders
argued, was mentally ill, suffering from bipolar disorder and manic depression.
(He had originally travelled to China in 2007 planning to become a pop star,
bringing peace to the world with his atonal debut single, ‘Come Little Rabbit’;
his personal deposition in the Chinese court was so rambling and incoherent
that his judges laughed at him.) He should, representatives of the British
government had demanded, be given an independent psychiatric assessment by the
Chinese authorities, a request that for months was stonewalled by the judges in
the case.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Shaikh’s death swiftly became a major
international incident. ‘I condemn the execution of Akmal Shaikh in the
strongest terms,’ said the British prime minister, Gordon Brown, ‘and am
appalled and disappointed that our persistent requests for clemency have not
been granted.’ Ivan Lewis, a Foreign Office minister, pronounced himself ‘sick
to the stomach . . . it’s a deeply depressing day for anyone with a modicum of
compassion or commitment to justice in Britain and throughout the world.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">2</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Chinese opinion responded with similar anger.
The parallels were too obvious: a new British attempt to meddle with Chinese
legal handling of an opiate-smuggling case. The media and Internet bubbled over
with references to 1840 and all that. ‘In China,’ went the official government
response, ‘given the bitter memory of history . . . the public has a particular
and strong resentment towards [drug smuggling]. In a recent web survey, 99% of
the public support the decision of the Court.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">3</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
‘The execution of Shaikh is like the burning of opium stocks in Humen in 1840
during the Opium Wars’, analysed one academic. ‘This time, though, “gunboat
diplomacy” could not work.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">4</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
‘England waged an Opium War against China’, raged an anonymous Internet
commentator. ‘Does it feel “sick to its stomach” about having invaded us? . . .
Lewis stands alongside Charles Elliot and Henry Pottinger: with the enemies of
China.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">5</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
‘The words “England” and “opiate” equal “Opium War”,’ explained a blogger, ‘the
start of China’s modern history of being bullied and humiliated. The English
have forgotten that in 1840 their forebears began blasting open China’s gates
with opium. But the Chinese still feel the pain acutely.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">6</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
‘Kill kill kill kill’, summarized another anonymous commentator.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">7</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
The Chinese, it’s worth pointing out, did not have a monopoly on memories of
the Opium War. The same idea came to a handful of British commentators, one of
whom denounced the fuss as ‘hypocritical and insensitive’.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">8</span></sup></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">This was the third piece of alarming news to
come out of China in December 2009. The first concerned the failure of the
Copenhagen Climate Change summit, following which European participants –
bitterly disappointed that their hope for binding agreements on reductions of
emissions had come to nothing – cast around for someone to blame, and found
China. ‘China wrecked the talks,’ one impassioned environmentalist revealed,
‘intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful “deal” so
Western leaders would walk away carrying the blame.’ China’s only aim, he
concluded, was to safeguard its own economic rise (reliant on free use of filthy,
cheap coal), while encouraging the declining West to incinerate itself. The
Chinese premier had not, moreover, even deigned to sit in the same room as
leaders of the Western world – including Barack Obama – but had posted an
underling to relay the negotiations back-and-forth by telephone.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">9</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
To anyone with a touch of historical memory, this looked like an ominous return
to the style of pompous, sino-centric diplomacy that had so enraged men like
William Napier and Harry Parkes in the run-up to the first and second Opium
Wars, as the emperor’s officials refused to meet them in person, delegating
instead the hapless Hong merchants.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Then, on Christmas Day, the Communist
government (following months of illegal detention, and despite waves of
international attention) sentenced to eleven years’ imprisonment the celebrated
veteran dissident Liu Xiaobo on charges of ‘state subversion’, as revenge for
his authoring ‘Charter 08’ – an Internet petition calling for democracy and
human rights for China. (Less than a year later, a group of Norwegians would
enrage China by awarding Liu the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize in protest at his
sentencing.) Eleven years earlier, Bill Clinton had lectured the Communist
Party on its human-rights record, in person, in China. We’re on the rise, the
tune now seemed to run out of Beijing, and from now on you’d better get used to
doing things our way.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The British press panicked. The foreign
policy editor at the <i>Daily Telegraph</i> was swiftly grinding out invasion
scenarios. ‘The year is 2050, and a diplomatic dispute between China and
Britain risks escalating into all-out war . . . At the flick of a switch elite
teams of Chinese hackers attached to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launch
a hi-tech assault on Britain’s computer systems, with devastating
consequences.’ Recent clashes, he concluded, have laid bare ‘the cold reality
of China’s attitude to the outside world.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Rather than being a partner that can be
trusted to work with the West . . . the Chinese have demonstrated that their
default position is that Beijing’s only real priority is to look after its own
interests . . . Much of China’s reluctance to engage constructively with the
West on issues of mutual concern dates back to the psychological trauma the
country suffered during the Opium Wars of the nineteenth century, when British
gunboats routinely humiliated the Chinese government of the day . . . To ensure
that there is no repeat of a time when foreign powers could push the Chinese
people around with impunity, Beijing is today investing enormous effort into
developing technology that would render the West’s superior military firepower
useless.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">10</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Drugs, revenge and Chinese plots for world
domination: it was the Yellow Peril all over again.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Beneath the clash-of-civilizations rhetoric,
things were more complicated. British commentators quickly assumed China’s hard
line was exclusively directed at them. But there was a domestic subtext to the
government’s lack of interest in compromising over Copenhagen, Liu Xiaobo or
Akmal Shaikh. China’s rulers are, for good reasons, intensely nervous of doing
anything (such as restricting cheap coal emissions) that will jeopardize
economic growth: their absolutist mandate to rule is predicated on their
ability to deliver prosperity to their 1.3 billion subjects. The CCP’s
nervousness about domestic opposition showed in their grotesque treatment of
Liu Xiaobo: China’s Internet seethes with potential dissent and capacity to
organize against the regime, with Liu only one representative of contemporary
China’s sizeable awkward squad.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Neither should it be forgotten that Akmal
Shaikh’s conviction and execution took place in Urumqi – the epicentre of
violent clashes between Muslim populations and Han migrants in July 2009 that
left 140 dead and many hundreds injured; it remained, as of January 2010, under
tense paramilitary control. For years, China’s preservers of law and order have
connected drug-smuggling into Xinjiang via Central Asia with Islamic separatist
terrorism. And in the couple of months preceding Akmal Shaikh’s execution,
Chinese newspapers were scattered with indications that Communist law and order
was malfunctioning up and down the country: at least five deranged killing
sprees, several of which involved multiple murders of family members – a sign
that under the helm of the CCP, the moral fabric of society seemed to be in
disintegration.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">11</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Look at us now, the Communist Party told their citizen subjects as they stood
firm over Akmal Shaikh, we can keep domestic <i>and</i> international order.
Where the West repeatedly saw deliberate, provocative defiance, the Chinese
government also saw internal security issues. The whole sequence suggested
another Opium War parallel: while seemingly at war with the West, China is also
at war with itself.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">It was worrying, though. It showed how edgy
relations are, at base, between the West and a China that is clutching at
superpower status; and how troubled these relations still are by a highly
politicized historical memory.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">One of the great clichés of non-specialist
reporting on post-Mao China is that the place is changing, and fast. But
through the transformations of the past thirty years, at least two things have
remained reassuringly the same. One is the Communist Party’s untiring claim to
lead the country. Another is the airless account of modern Chinese history that
the party constructed in the 1920s and 1930s, with significant help from the
Nationalists, to shore up its own legitimacy and demand sacrifices from the
Chinese people: namely, that the history of modern China is a history of
imperialist victimization (from which only the party can save the country).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In the 1980s, though, this familiar narrative
played to something of an empty house. For sure, the textbooks carried the old
tune about ‘the hideous sufferings’ inflicted by the ‘shameful opium trade’,
and ‘the Chinese people’s resolute will to resist foreign invasion.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">12</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
But this was a decade in which the government had trouble persuading anyone
about anything. For many Chinese people, the volte-face from the Cultural
Revolution was too dramatic for the regime to maintain its old credibility –
former enemies of the people were suddenly rehabilitated; the vicious energies
expended in persecuting and humiliating them were dismissed as an unfortunate
mistake; the years that millions of urban intellectuals had spent ‘learning
from the peasants’ were redefined as a waste of time. Even the once-deified Mao
was pronounced in 1981 to have been only 70 per cent right.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A key element of the post-Mao change of heart
was to admit that learning from the West – or parts of it, at least – was
acceptable. But even as the government tried desperately hard to pick and
choose what it imported – foreign investment, science and technology were fine;
democracy less so </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">–
control proved elusive. ‘Once you open the window,’ as Mao’s successor Deng
Xiaoping famously commented, ‘it’s hard to stop the flies and mosquitoes coming
in.’ And when the party tried to block certain imports, ridicule resulted. In
the early 1980s, it focused its energies on eradicating ‘Spiritual Pollution’:
not only pornography and smuggling, but also less obviously criminal
manifestations – long hair, flared trousers, slightly modernist poetry whose
meaning was not as transparent as road-signs. By this point, although such
campaigns could still chill the Chinese people with memories of the Cultural
Revolution, they were far less successful at actually convincing anyone. Many
urban Chinese recall the Anti-Spiritual Pollution Campaign as the single event
that – through its sheer pettiness about things like hairstyles and clothing –
destroyed their final shreds of intellectual respect for the CCP. ‘Where shall
we go and get polluted tonight?’ mocked Yang Xianyi, one of the country’s most
famous literary intellectuals, down the phone to his friends as propaganda
chiefs in the <i>People’s Daily</i> railed against contamination by ‘vulgar
individualism’. Writers targeted by the campaign responded by cultivating
Western support. ‘Everyone I knew was disgusted with China, with the
government’, remembered Bonnie McDougall, a celebrated translator of post-Mao
Chinese writing into English, and a resident in Beijing through the 1980s. ‘I would
be approached all the time by people asking me to get them invitations abroad .
. . they wanted to get out.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">13</span></a><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> The West was becoming no longer the root of all China’s problems,
but its saviour.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The authorities also seemed to lose some of
their appetite for brainwashing the populace, through propaganda offensives,
about their own infallibility. Many things were allowed to become publicly
uncertain in the 1980s: how Marxist principles fitted with economic
liberalization; how outrageous the government’s vocal critics would be in their
next essay or public lecture; how much cooking oil would cost next month. But
as China stumbled towards a market economy and as inflation rocketed, one
general conviction grew: the government’s reforms weren’t working and the
leadership had not found a way to persuade the populace that they could lead.
It was a decade in which almost everything and everyone Chinese seemed
vulnerable to mockery and attack, and often from within the establishment. In
1988, as criticism fever ran high, Central China Television screened – not
once, but twice – a six-part historical documentary entitled <i>Deathsong of a
River</i> (<i>Heshang</i>), that scorned thousands of years of Chinese history
and ridiculed the country’s national symbols (such as the Great Wall and the
Yellow River), while extolling Western-style trade, freedom, capitalism,
science and democracy. The most avant-garde rebels – such as the 2010 Nobel
Peace Laureate Liu Xiaobo – speculated that China could only experience ‘great
historical change’ if it were colonized as Hong Kong had been.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The Opium War industry went into decline. The
decade was littered with missed opportunities for commemorating Sino-British
conflicts, with the neglected ruins of the old Summer Palace, to Beijing’s
north-west, a perfect example. During the Maoist period, the palace’s pleasure
gardens had become a treasure trove for pilfering farmers, questing for stone
and bricks for pigsties and other useful buildings. Through the 1980s,
administration of the place – crowded, as a couple of visitors noted, ‘with
heaps of rubbish, vegetable plots, pigsties and beancurd presses . . . fly- and
mosquito-infested ditches’ – was so slack that no one could be bothered to
charge an entrance fee.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">14</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Fictionalized memoirs of the 1980s recalled a new, creative use for the
dilapidated precincts: as a trysting location for the privacy- and sex-starved
students of nearby Beijing and Qinghua Universities.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The neglect of political education had a
direct effect on popular views of the CCP’s legitimacy. From the mid-decade
onwards, urban China was given pause, every year, by student protests: over the
lack of government transparency; over the rising cost of food; over the rats in
their dorms. Admittedly, some of these demonstrations seemed to be set off by
anti-foreign feeling: most notoriously, the 1988 riots in Nanjing triggered by
racist fury that African students were consorting with Chinese girls. But at
bottom, these xenophobic eruptions were driven by acute domestic tensions. By
the close of the decade, the leadership was unable to agree even in public on
what it should be doing about the country’s looming political and social
crisis. Between 1986 and 1989, two of the men – Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang –
appointed by Deng Xiaoping to manage his socialist market economy were sacked
for failing to come down hard enough on dissent (what the establishment had now
started calling ‘bourgeois liberalization’). The sudden death of Hu in April
1989 provided a focus for student dissatisfaction that led directly to the
massive demonstrations of that spring and summer. After Zhao blanched at Deng’s
decision to send in the People’s Liberation Army against the demonstrators, he
would spend the next sixteen years (until his death in 2005) under house
arrest, allowed out only for the occasional round of golf on one of Beijing’s
courses.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">When a triumvirate of student leaders knelt
on the steps to the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square on 26 April
1989, to present the Communist leadership with a petition demanding democratic
reforms, they had no idea that over the next two months their protests would
fill the square with hunger-striking protestors, infect every major Chinese
city, mesmerize the world’s media and almost bring their Communist government
down, before ending in bloodshed. (As the movement advanced, it became apparent
that the students were clear about few of their aims, including democracy –
many were distinctly lukewarm about the idea of giving the vote to the
country’s uneducated masses.) But whatever they did anticipate, no one could possibly
have imagined – given how much emphasis the traditional Communist narrative of
the Opium War had placed on taking the moral high ground over Western
aggression – that it would be the government’s most public act of violence
against its own civilians (the suppression of the demonstrations on 4 June)
that would restore the Opium War to its old, illustrious position as
Pre-Eminent National Wound.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">They were busy days in Beijing, just after 4
June 1989, just after the People’s Liberation Army soldiers had lowered their
rifle muzzles to chest height and begun firing at will on the people of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Beijing. The military forces needed
congratulating on national television on their triumph over the
‘counter-revolution’; civilian bodies needed clearing from the streets; leading
protestors who had not managed to smuggle themselves out of the country needed
rounding up. But it was also a time for the leadership to reflect on what had
gone wrong ideologically over the past ten years; on why the Chinese populace
had seemed to stop believing in what the Communist Party told them; on why
urban China had been on the brink of declaring war on the government; on why
even the staff of the government’s mouthpiece, the <i>People’s Daily</i>, had
joined the protestors, parading through the streets waving banners demanding
‘No More Lies’.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Two answers were found – one public, one
private. The public explanation was a reliable favourite: the turmoil was the
result of foreign manipulation. ‘Some political forces in the West’, explained
Chen Xitong, the Mayor of Beijing, ‘always attempt to make socialist countries,
including China, give up the socialist road, eventually bring these countries
under the rule of international monopoly capital and put them on the course of
capitalism. This is their long-term, fundamental strategy.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">15</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
A small group of counter-revolutionaries, he went on, had colluded with
plotting foreigners, who had ploughed hundreds of millions of dollars into
splitting the country.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In their more honest moments, though, China’s
hardliners might have concluded that they had brought it on themselves. Since
Mao began his career in the Nationalists’ Propaganda Office, the Communist
Party had prided itself on its mastery of spin; on its understanding that in
politics, surface is more important than substance. (In 1935, almost as soon as
the ragged, starving remainder of Communist troops on the run from the
Nationalist army limped into a new headquarters in the north-west, Mao had
ordered underlings to get to work telling heroic tales about the trek,
transforming it from a year-long rout into a triumph over adversity: the Long
March.) But through the 1980s, that lesson had been sidelined in the interests
of introducing fresh air into Chinese society: controlling public opinion had
seemed less urgent than the drive towards a vigorous market economy. In spring
1989, as discontent climaxed, the party’s propaganda chief extraordinarily
lifted an initial media ban on reporting the protests, instructing newspaper
editors to present ‘the actual state of affairs’ – to let the people make up
their own minds; following which, journalists streamed into the square to join
the demonstrations.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">16</span></sup></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The lessons were well marked by Deng
Xiaoping. ‘For many years,’ he now sternly observed at a national meeting of
propaganda department chiefs, ‘some of our comrades, immersing themselves in
specific affairs, have shown no concern for political developments and attached
no importance to ideological work . . . Our gravest failure has been in
[political] education. We did not provide enough education to young people,
including students. For many of those who participated in the demonstrations
and hunger strikes it will take years, not just a couple of months, of education
to change their thinking.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">17</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Deng’s second-in-command, Jiang Zemin – who had scrambled up the party ranks on
the strength of his muffling of 1989’s Shanghai protests – was keen to show
that the pendulum was swinging back. His predecessor, the disgraced Zhao
Ziyang, had not even attended annual National Propaganda meetings; Jiang made a
point not only of attending every one, but also of making the keynote speech.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Once the oversight had been acknowledged,
though, the question was how to fill the propaganda vacuum. In declaring soon
after Mao’s death that ‘practice was the sole criterion of truth’, Deng had
implicitly thrown ideology out of the window (perhaps the same one through
which all the flies and mosquitoes were coming). The loss of Communist China’s
‘spiritual pillars’ – the political, Marxist thought that glued the place
together – had been the result. But now that the guns of the People’s
Liberation Army had been turned on the People, lecturing populations on
proletarian principles was, realistically, going to be problematic – even
though the conservative wing of the party remained in denial about this until
around 1992, as they busily tried to orchestrate a return to old-style Maoism.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Some of the savvier elements in government
had another idea: to combine recriminations of the West with a revamped
patriotic propaganda drive – to reinvent the post-1989 party as defender of the
national interest against Western attempts to contain a rising China. It was an
almost improbably audacious plan: how on earth, a matter-of-fact observer might
have reasonably asked at the time, was the party going to persuade its people –
whom it had openly butchered through June 1989 – that it was, in fact, the
country’s saviour from evil Western schemes? The demonstrations’ blood-soaked
denouement was an international and domestic PR disaster of the first order:
while Western politicians and overseas Chinese called for economic and
political sanctions and sinologists contemplated switching discipline in
protest, hundreds of thousands of sobbing Chinese people came out in protest in
Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Western cities, comparing the PRC to Nazi Germany
and spray-painting the national flag with swastikas. Surely, from here, there
was no way back.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">But one historical coincidence, at least,
seemed to smile on the endeavour. The aftermath of the 1989 suppression fell
upon an auspicious commemoration: the hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the
Opium War. And through the months following June 1989, some of the country’s
modern historians got to work. While elsewhere in the world Communist states
collapsed, academic hacks wrote and organized and wrote some more until, as the
new year approached, they were at last ready. In 1990, China’s establishment
fought a vigorous campaign to remind the Chinese people of their history of
oppression at the hands of West, through literally dozens of articles,
conferences and spin-off books about the conflict.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">‘The Opium War’, went <i>Humiliation and
Resistance</i> – the book resulting from just one of the year’s commemorative
symposia – ‘was the great event in China’s modern history: not only the
beginning of China’s modern history of humiliation, but also the first glorious
chapter of the Chinese people’s struggle of resistance against foreign
invasion. The War has not only branded an enormous, painful, unforgettable memory
on the hearts of countless sons and daughters of China, but has also provided a
hugely worthwhile lesson for later generations to reflect upon.’ China’s modern
history was the story of the Chinese people suffering from, then resisting,
(Western) i</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">mperialist
aggression, beginning with the ‘shameless’ and ‘filthy’ Opium War, a concerted
plot to ‘enslave our people, steal our wealth and turn a great nation that had
been independent for thousands of years into a semi-feudal semi-colony.’ The
Chinese people were also to remember that ‘between the Opium War and the War of
Resistance Against Japan, the Chinese people gradually awoke until, after many
failed choices, they eventually chose socialism . . . and the leadership of the
Communist Party . . . In recent years, some enemies of patriotism have been
shouting about “total Westernization” . . . This is extraordinary . . . To
forget history is treachery.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">18</span></a><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> ‘Since the Opium War,’ another conference paraphrased, ‘history has
shown that . . . only the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is the core
power for the victory of the revolution . . . only socialism can save and
develop China.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">19</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The Opium War’s birthday extravaganza of 1990
was the start of one of the Communist Party’s most successful post-Mao
ideological campaigns, Patriotic Education, a crusade designed – as the <i>People’s
Daily</i> explained in 1994 – to ‘boost the nation’s spirit, enhance its
cohesion, foster its self-esteem and sense of pride, consolidate and develop a
patriotic united front . . . and rally the masses’ patriotic passions to the
great cause of building socialism with Chinese characteristics.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">20</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
The campaign encompassed three big ideas: first, to indoctrinate the Chinese in
the idea that China possessed a unique, glorious, millennia-old ‘national
condition’ (<i>guoqing</i>) unready for democracy; second, to remind them of
their sufferings at the hands of the West; and third, to underline the genius
of Communist leadership. In practice, this meant talking up the ‘great
achievements’ of the Chinese People, Nation and Communist Party, in stirring
films, in feel-good sing-songs, in top-hundred lists of heroes, great events
and battles and in numbing references to China’s ‘century of humiliation’
inflicted by foreign imperialism, always beginning with the Opium Wars, always
passing slickly over the CCP’s own acts of violence (the Maoist famine of the
early 1960s; the Cultural Revolution; the 1989 crackdown). ‘How can we give our
youth patriotic education?’ asked <i>Seeking Truth</i> (<i>Qiushi</i>), the
party’s leading policy journal. ‘By teaching them to understand the historical
inevitability and correctness of choosing the socialist road . . . since the
Opium War.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">21</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Shortly after 1989, the Central Propaganda Department dubbed modern Chinese
history ‘a meaningful security issue.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">22</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
(In 2001, the official history of the CCP explicitly traced the party’s period
of pre-development back to 1840, ‘in order to explain the historical
inevitability of the CCP’s establishment.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">23</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">)
A rash of National Humiliation books erupted: <i>The Indignation of National
Humiliation, A Dictionary of National Humiliation, A Simple Dictionary of
National Humiliation, Never Forget National Humiliation</i>.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">24</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
‘High schools didn’t teach students anything about the Opium War until 1990,’ a
veteran author of history textbooks from the People’s Educational Press
recalled in 2007, ‘when they brought it in to improve their patriotic
education.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">25</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
As Francis Fukuyama pronounced the death of ideology, and both specialist and
non-specialist China-watchers were predicting that China’s famed propaganda
system was in crisis, this machinery geared itself up for a new message.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Post-1989 China has bristled with new or
improved tourist destinations commemorating the horrors of foreign aggression.
The government finally mustered the will to capitalize on the propaganda value
of the ruins of the Summer Palace, replacing the pigsties and piles of rubbish
with new signs littered across the gardens reminding visitors of what would
have been there, if the British and French had not burnt or stolen it first.
The ruins of the Qing emperors’ imitation Versailles, of course, were left in
place – a handful of curlicued pillars looming up out of evocatively
disarranged rubble – as if 1860 were only yesterday still. Before their groups
scatter for photo-opportunities, Chinese tour-guides today make sure their
charges have taken the point: ‘This isn’t history,’ I overheard one party being
told. ‘This is a national tragedy.’ After a solemn amble through the palace’s
remains, visitors eventually reach, along a fifty-yard walkway lined by notices
detailing the location of items looted in 1860 in foreign museums (‘the
humiliated soul of the palace’s remains is a constant imperative to reflect on
history’), a courtyard museum in which a fifty-minute documentary film, <i>The
Vicissitudes of the Summer Palace</i>, blares out on continuous loop: a
masterpiece of shrill socialist realism graced by production values from the
1970s. ‘Never forget history!’ hectors its conclusion. ‘Revive China!’
(Naturally, there are no such publicly preserved ruins of the many historical
sites destroyed by Chinese people, with full government encouragement, during
the Cultural Revolution, or published listings of priceless artworks smashed or
stolen by Red Guards.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Inevitably, the first Opium War also did well
out of the patriotic boom of the 1990s, with the redevelopment of a heritage
trail around Canton and Nanjing. By the end of the decade, a new Sea Battle
Museum rose, like a great barnacle, out of the Guangdong coastline, recounting
British ships’ 1841 destruction of the crucial forts that guarded the riverway
up to Canton. The temple on the outskirts of Nanjing in which China’s first
‘Unequal Treaty’ was agreed on 29 August 1842 had been destroyed during the
Second World War; the site was reconstructed into the Museum of the Nanjing
Treaty, in time for the all-important anniversary of 1990. In 1997, to mark the
Handover of Hong Kong (the British occupation of which, pronounced Jiang Zemin,
‘was the epitome of the humiliation China suffered in modern history’), six
million <i>yuan</i> in public subscriptions were collected to pay for the
forging of a massive ‘Bell of Warning’, which now stood at the entrance of the
complex: ‘to peal long and loud, lest we forget the national humiliation of the
past.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">26</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
That same year, a blockbuster about the Opium War – full of tough, righteous
Chinese officials and cruel, lecherous foreigners – hit Chinese cinemas.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">27</span></sup></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In 2007, a Central China Television
documentary entitled <i>The Road to Revival</i> chronicled China’s history
since the Opium War, tracing out the horrors suffered before the joys of
Communist victory in 1949. Near the entrance to the accompanying exhibition at
Beijing’s grimly Stalinist Military Affairs Museum, a vast flashing map (‘The
Historical Humiliations of the Chinese People’) boggled visitors’ minds with
statistics about the millions of ounces of silver that the Unequal Treaties
cost </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">the country, while a
video loop juxtaposed pitiful images of naked Chinese children with those of
fully clothed Western soldiers. The briefest of nods to the glitches of
communism were permitted. The exhibition offered one mention of the Great Leap
Forward – Mao’s fanatical 1957 farming revolution that led to some 30 million
deaths in the man-made famine of the early 1960s – and glossed the decade of
the Cultural Revolution with a three-dimensional display of China’s first
successful explosion of an atom bomb. The events of June 1989 were blotted out
with images of happy Chinese people shopping for televisions through the 1980s,
followed by even happier farmers, computers and skyscrapers through the 1990s.
‘Remember our history of humiliation,’ ran the closing display, ‘build a
beautiful future.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Chen Xitong – Mayor of Beijing through the
spring and summer of 1989 – termed Patriotic Education a ‘systematically
engineered project’; and it seems to have produced results. A survey of 10,000
young people in 1995 already found most of them expecting China’s status to
surge over the next thirty years; that year, patriotism rose to number two in
the list of values important to China’s youth, from number five only ten years
previously.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">28</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
In 2003, almost half of a 5,000-strong sample of students surveyed expressed
confidence that in twenty years China should and would be able to become a
leading military world power.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">29</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Popular, anti-Western nationalism has regularly erupted since the mid-1990s. In
May 1999, as the tenth anniversary of the Tiananmen confrontation approached,
tens of thousands of Chinese students spilled onto the streets of urban China
roaring not for democracy but for revenge against America for the NATO bombing
of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. ‘Oppose invasion!’ ran one slogan. ‘Blood
for Blood!’ ran another. Horrified apologies by the American government (whose
Beijing embassy was besieged by protestors) that the bombing had been a mistake
caused by CIA bungling and inefficiency meant nothing; the incident had
instantly pressed the Opium War button in a Chinese public now seemingly
conditioned to expect only the worst from the West. ‘This is no longer an age’,
analysed the <i>People’s Daily</i>, ‘in which people can barge about the world
with a few gunboats . . . no longer the era in which Western powers plundered
the Imperial Palace at will . . . and seized Hong Kong . . . The hot blood of
people of ideas and integrity who have opposed imperialism for more than a
hundred and fifty years flows through the veins of the Chinese people. NATO had
better remember this.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">30</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
There was, the instinctive reasoning went, nothing chance about it – it was the
latest manifestation of the old foreign conspiracy against their country.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In April 2008, a similar outburst of Chinese
nationalism was triggered by furious responses to Tibetan Independence
demonstrations during the Olympic torch relay. While anti-Chinese protests
spread through Tibet, <i>China Daily</i> blamed the unrest on British invasion
following the Opium War.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">31</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
On 7 April, when pro-Tibet protestors in Paris tried to grab the Olympic flame
from a wheelchair-bound Chinese paralympian, the French leg of the relay broke
down only half an hour after starting out from the Eiffel Tower. Around ten
days later, civilian nationalists had mobilized protests around the French
embassy in Beijing, and outside French supermarkets in at least five different
Chinese cities. ‘Protect Our Tibet! Bless Our Olympics! Boycott Carrefour!’ ran
banners displayed at demonstrations on the north-east coast. ‘Say No to French
Imperialists! Strongly Protest Britain and France Invading China in 1860!’ As
popular Chinese outrage grew about perceived anti-Chinese bias in Western
reporting on the riots in Tibet, more than ten members of the Foreign
Correspondents’ Club of China received death threats. ‘People who fart through
the mouth will get shit stuffed down their faces by me! Foreign reporters out
of China!’ a posting on a popular news site owned by the <i>People’s Daily</i>
responded. ‘These bastards make me want to throw up,’ ran another. ‘Throw them
in the Taiwan Strait to fill it up. They’re like flies – disgusting.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">32</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Those without first-hand experience of or interest in China now encountered
(either physically or on prime-time news slots) files of red-flag wavers in
Australian, American and European cities occasionally prepared to kick and
punch advocates of Tibetan independence. Things looked particularly ugly in
clashes between Chinese and pro-Tibetan demonstrators at Duke University in the
US, where one Chinese student who suggested dialogue between the two sides
received death threats from compatriots. For a while – until the Sichuan
earthquake revived global sympathy for China – dyspeptic chauvinism looked set
to become the international face of this imminent superpower.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In the course of all this, a brash new
persona in Chinese public life has emerged: the <i>fenqing</i> – angry,
intensely nationalistic (predominantly male) youth.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">33</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Although they periodically spill out onto the streets, the favoured habitat of the
<i>fenqing</i> is the Internet. One of the most impressive aspects of the CCP’s
post-1989 Patriotic Education campaign has been its ability to adapt new
technology to its purposes. For sure, plenty of young Chinese nationalists’
minds have been fed on old-fashioned, traditional media: on what one Chinese
academic in 2006 controversially called the ‘wolf’s milk’ of the PRC’s
nationalistically selective textbooks. The youngest self-proclaimed <i>fenqing</i>
that I have encountered was a sixteen-year-old from Beijing, who told me that
he had first learnt to become angry aged thirteen, in his modern Chinese
history classes at junior high school. ‘Our schooling taught us that China’s
misery was imposed by Western countries’, observed one twenty-three-year-old in
2006. ‘We were all strongly nationalist . . . We were bound to become <i>fenqing</i>.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">34</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
But the Internet in China has also become a crucial virtual meeting place for
new extreme patriots: every nationalist flashpoint since the late 1990s has
been stoked by, or organized over, the Internet.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">For well over a decade, the Chinese
government has been one of the world’s most assiduous censors of the Internet,
controlling the public’s access to information through its ‘Great Firewall’: a
handful of servers guarding the gateways at which the Chinese Internet meets
that of the outside world, in order to block sensitive foreign sites.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">35</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Yet despite the regime’s nerves about the Internet offering a free forum for
exchange of political information and views, it has tolerated and even </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">encouraged outbursts of angry
nationalism, in the hope that anti-foreign sentiment will blur into
state-defined patriotism. And on the face of it, the gamble has paid off. After
the 1999 protests, the <i>People’s Daily</i> set up the ‘Strong Nation Forum’:
an official outlet for nationalistic postings. After the 2001 collision between
a Chinese fighter plane and an American spy plane off the coast of southern
China, the site raged with anti-US comments on the incident.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">36</span></sup></a><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"> Aware that a great many Chinese
Internet users are primarily interested in games, the propaganda department has
ensured that rising generations can spend their leisure hours refining their
patriotic instincts. In 2000, for example, an officially sanctioned news site
featured games in which web-users could thump Lee Teng-hui (the President of Taiwan
who oversaw the island’s first democratic elections in 1995), stick silly noses
on him or shoot at him as he jumped out of a plane. As the Hong Kong Handover
approached in 1997, a software company launched an Opium War game whose players
fought the British virtually: ‘Let’s use our wisdom and courage’, ran the
manual, ‘to exterminate the damned invaders!’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">37</span></sup></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Unexpected breeds of angry young men have
reinforced the CCP’s messages. In the middle of the decade, popular nationalism
hit China’s bookshelves in the form of a series of bestselling volumes
denouncing the West’s dark conspiracy to ‘contain’ (<i>ezhi</i>) or even
‘enslave’ a rising China. Zhang Xiaobo, one of the co-authors of the earliest
of these books, <i>China Can Say No</i>, was an improbable supporter of state
orthodoxy: a veteran of the West-worshipping 1980s imprisoned briefly after
1989 for his involvement in the protests. <i>The Plot to Demonise China</i> (an
account of the American media’s conspiracy to blacken China) was put together
by a group of young, Westernized intellectuals (one a professor at an American
university). ‘We were nothing to do with the party,’ protested Zhang – now a
highly successful independent publisher ambitious to produce China’s first
legal pornographic magazine – more than ten years later.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">38</span></sup></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In the late 1990s, as the Internet began to
take off in China, George W. Bush predicted blithely that ‘freedom’s genie [is]
out of the bottle’. Within another ten years, such optimism was starting to
look misplaced, with a bullish Communist government defying Western governments
on key issues – the undervaluing of the <i>yuan</i>, multilateral agreement at
Copenhagen, freedom of speech – and apparently cheered on by Internet-users who
classified each collision as an imperialist plot to keep China down. And the
more that the government and its netizens dwelt on Western schemes to intervene
in China, the more they fuelled old Yellow Peril fears in British and American
minds. In January 2010, after more than three decades of market reforms and a
decade of the Internet, Sino-Western relations seemed as haunted by the Opium War
syndrome as ever.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In winter 2007, finding myself in Beijing
with some spare time on my hands, I decided to take the temperature of
Patriotic Education for myself: to see whether it really was manufacturing
furious chauvinists. So I arranged to sit in on some high-school history
classes. It was surprisingly straightforward. If I’d been a Chinese researcher
trying to do the same thing in England, I would probably have had to wait weeks
or months for a Criminal Records Bureau check. A friend – a clever and
good-humoured thirty-something teacher with a degree from an American
university – contacted a couple of his friends, then rang me back with a
handful of phone numbers. ‘Give them a call and they’ll tell you when to come.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Arriving at the school early on a November
morning, I was met at the gates by another young, smiling history teacher, who
took me to the classroom. ‘High-school education’s politically very important,’
she told me as we walked over. ‘That’s where most people get their ideas about
modern history from.’ And the class – on the Opium War – did indeed kick off
stolidly enough, with an introit about the evils of British drug-smuggling and
the damage done to the Chinese people’s dignity, and images of socialist
realist sculptures depicting muscular Chinese resistance. The lecture was
accompanied – in an emotive touch foreign to the history lessons I remember
sitting through as a teenager – by an atmospherically sinister soundtrack. ‘To
forget history is treachery’, a PowerPoint slide reminded the students – in
case they hadn’t heard it a hundred times before.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">But there were surprises in the
fifteen-minute discussion that followed, in which students were invited to
debate why China was defeated, and the influence that the war had had on the
country. One classroom wag hauled himself to his feet: ‘As Chairman Mao said .
. .’ he began, in a deliberate parody of political correctness. Once his
classmates’ and teacher’s gusts of laughter had died down, he made his point:
‘We lost because we were too weak, too closed up.’ His classmates agreed: ‘The
problem with us Chinese,’ another went on, ‘was that we had no backbone; we
were all high on opium the whole time.’ ‘Our weapons were three hundred years
behind the West,’ observed a third, ‘and we had no experience of naval war. We
were too cowardly, too backward, too isolated.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Despite the impressive efforts of the
Propaganda Department to construct a China-as-victim account of modern history,
commemoration of the Opium War is still saturated with self-loathing. ‘We made <i>The
Road to Revival</i>,’ its director (a suave forty-something called Ren Xue’an)
told me, ‘because although we’ve solved the basic problem that led to the Opium
War – that the isolated will be backward, and the backward will take a beating
– there are lots of other things, such as national wealth and strength,
democracy, harmony and civilization, that we haven’t achieved yet. We’re not
obsessing about this period of history just for the sake of it, but in order to
march forward, to tell the Chinese people to keep studying new things . . . the
war opened up the rest of the world to us, and we began to learn from it.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">39</span></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Views are, in fact, very divided about the
impact of Patriotic Education. History teachers on the front line of the
crusade fret that, despite diligent reminders of the ‘Century of Humiliation’,
‘the youth of today aren’t very patriotic’, as the teacher I saw in action
complained. ‘They’re selfish. They have no sense of responsibility – they don’t
worry or think about things like Unequal Treaties. Some of them don’t even know
what the Boxer Indemnity is! Nothing matters to them, except passing the
university entrance examination. If you tell them to be patriotic, they don’t
take any </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">notice.’ After
one class, a group of Beijing sixteen-year-olds told me they hated modern
history – it was so dark and oppressive. ‘They all prefer ancient history,’
their teacher told me. ‘They like the sense of culture and the emperors.’ I
also observed some of the new compulsory modern history classes (that replaced
older courses in Marxism-Leninism) at Beijing University. Soon, the only way I
could keep myself awake was by sitting at the back and keeping a count on all
the students who had obviously fallen asleep (some of them in the front rows).</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">A tour of some of China’s sites of patriotic
education intimated that the lack of enthusiasm was not restricted to students.
A case in point was the Sea Battle Museum. The curators have made a stalwart
attempt to fan visitors’ sense of grievance through instructive captions (‘the
British colonialists attempted to open the door of China by the contemptible
means of armed invasion and opium-smuggling . . . the sublime national
integrity and great patriotic spirit of the Chinese people displayed during the
anti-aggression struggle showed a national spirit that would never disappear’),
and three-dimensional artists’ impressions of the struggle: one’s attention is
grabbed particularly by a lurid waxworks of the fight for one of the forts, in
which an unarmed Chinese man has wrestled to the ground an armed and apparently
moribund British soldier, and is about to dash his brains out with a rock.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">On the beach outside the museum, however,
day-trippers seemed unperturbed by the events of 170 years past. As they laid
out snacks and drinks, threw balls around and kicked shuttlecocks in the shadow
of the forts that failed to protect China from British ships, tourists were far
more interested in enjoying a few hours at the seaside than in contemplating
the national tragedy. The largest and most accessible of the fortifications was
Weiyuan Paotai (the Fort That Overawes to a Great Distance) just to the right
of the beach: a long seawall regularly punctuated by large cannon, several of
which were being straddled by young women in tight shorts who were having their
photographs taken. I asked a young man watching his male friends scramble over
the guns what he felt visiting the place: ‘I . . . er . . . don’t know. I
haven’t thought.’ I tried goading him a little: ‘I’m British, you know.’
‘Really? I hear Britain’s very advanced.’ I gave him another opening: ‘British
as in “The Anti-British Invasion Museum” [another nearby site of Opium
War-period patriotic education]. Wouldn’t you like me to apologize?’ ‘Oh, that.
That’s just history.’ Even the flagship monument to National Humiliation – the
ruins of the Summer Palace – is patchy in its effects. ‘Oh, yes, I’m very
angry,’ one male student visitor told me. A few minutes later, he tapped me on
the shoulder to ask what country I was from and what opportunities there were
for studying law in England.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">For all the success of young Chinese
nationalists in periodically grandstanding Western media coverage, almost every
Chinese urbanite I have spoken to is embarrassed by them, refusing to admit
they represent the mainstream. And in any case, most of China’s patriots do not
draw a clear line between themselves and the West. Significant numbers of
China’s angriest cyber-nationalists – denouncers of China’s ‘victimization’ by
the West and Japan – rank among the most enthusiastic exploiters of the wealth
and opportunities generated by the opening up of post-Mao China to the outside
world. A joke circulating in 1999 rumoured that demonstrators outside the US
embassy in Beijing were lobbing into the compound stones wrapped in visa
applications. Interviews I have attempted to conduct with <i>fenqing</i> have
often been distracted by their earnest requests for advice about studying or
getting published in the West. In one transcript, my interlocutor’s speech on
his readiness to send his army to the British Museum to recover the treasures
looted from the Summer Palace is interrupted when he enthusiastically accepts a
complimentary cup of Christmas coffee from a Starbucks waitress. Pragmatism, at
least as much as patriotism, is the religion of the contemporary PRC.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Despite its fears that the population is
oblivious to Patriotic Education, China’s propaganda establishment is anxious
also that the campaign might be too successful: that nationalist anger might
prove uncontrollable.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Back in 2007, I encountered one of China’s
Angry Youth in person: a tall, rangy, mop-haired journalist, whom I will call
Wang Ningwen.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">1</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
I had first encountered him at a meeting at a small independent bookstore
called Utopia (Wuyou zhixiang), just outside the western gate of Beijing
University, that had established itself as a gathering place for left-wing
nationalists. He was one of a group assembled to discuss the patriotic problems
in Li Ang’s Oscar-winning sensation, <i>Lust, Caution</i> – a sex-stuffed tale
of Japanese-occupied Second World War Shanghai, in which a female resistance
worker ends up sacrificing herself for the political collaborator she is
supposed to help assassinate. The discussion started off predictably enough:
the film, the speakers agreed, was ‘an insult to the Chinese people’, a
‘Chinese traitor movie’, ‘a sexually transmitted skin disease’. These
denunciations out of the way though, things took a slightly surprising turn.
What the speakers were really worried about was not the idea of a Hollywood
cabal plotting to defame Chinese patriotism, but instead the utter
spinelessness of the Chinese government’s response to the film. Why hadn’t they
banned it? ‘What did the censors think they were doing?’ one speaker demanded,
to enthusiastic applause.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">40</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
China’s problems, the group agreed, were the traitors within, not the enemy
without: the ‘comprador power-group’ (<i>maiban shili</i>) at the heart of
government, who identified with the West and Japan, who thought China would be
better off today if it had been a colony for the last two centuries. These
Chinese ‘running dogs of capitalism’ were turning China into the West’s
‘concubine’. I was struck by the fact that, although the speakers had no love
of the West (Western culture, I learnt from one of them, ‘is bestial – it turns
everyone into animals. The West is infantile, savage and destructive; China is
civilized’), their main quarrel was with the current Communist leadership.
While the assembled had ostensibly gathered to condemn a non-mainland film,
their anger quickly bounced back at the Chinese government.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">I made an appointment to meet Wang Ningwen a
few days later, to talk a little more about his Weltanshauung. (As a security
check, I tested the depth of his anti-Western feeling over the phone </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">by suggesting we met at Starbucks, to
see whether his love of multinational lattes would triumph over patriotic
principle.) Once we were sitting down over coffee, he poured out his
grievances. They began with the West: ‘All China’s problems are connected to
foreign invasion, starting with the Opium War . . . the British smuggled and
stole – they behaved disgustingly . . . The accounts of history have to be
settled . . . China’s obsessed with getting an apology from Japan; they should
get one from Britain, too.’ But he was very clear about where the root of the
problem lay: in the cowardice and treachery of China’s own government. There
was no such thing as patriotic education in China, he told me. ‘It was all so
boring we hated it – I called it anti-patriotic education . . . The average
highschool student doesn’t remember how badly the West behaved – all they know
is that Japanese, American and European things are good . . . mainstream
opinion in China today is trying to replace national identity with stuff about
how we should be modern and civilized, like the West . . . The entire CCP today
is basically a gang of traitors.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">41</span></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">He was outraged by Yuan Weishi’s criticisms
of Chinese textbooks published in 2006 in <i>Freezing Point</i>: how could a
Chinese scholar have allied himself with the Western imperialists? ‘It was pure
treachery – he was desecrating his own ancestors’ graves . . . He should have
been drowned in rotten eggs and spit . . . or maybe have had his house
vandalized. It would have been completely right and proper.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">42</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
But even though <i>Freezing Point</i> was shut down by the government, Wang
Ningwen was convinced the two sides were allies in the same conspiracy: ‘Yuan’s
article is serving the current CCP, he’s in cahoots with their treacherous
bureaucrats.’ At the end of our talk, Wang Ningwen had questions for me, too.
The following day, he had been invited to an interview with the British Council
for a scholarship to study in the UK, and he was wondering how best to present
himself. ‘Try not mentioning the [Opium] War,’ I suggested. He must have
controlled himself, for he won the award.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">43</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Wang Ningwen’s fierce anti-Western
nationalism, then, was an odd hybrid. While it had swallowed whole the angry,
victimized rhetoric of the Opium War narrative constructed by the CCP, it was
far more concerned with opposing the current Communist government itself. Wang –
as a graduate of Beijing University, a member of the country’s intellectual
elite – angrily attacked the regime’s public monopoly on historical
interpretations of the Cultural Revolution and of modern history in general.
‘They don’t want us to remember modern history,’ he commented scornfully of <i>The
Road to Revival</i>, ‘they just want to make us realize how great the present
is.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">44</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Ren Xue’an – representative par excellence of the contemporary Communist media
establishment so disliked by Wang Ningwen – was disapproving of <i>fenqing</i>
nationalism: ‘We should tolerate different voices, but their take on history is
wrong. It doesn’t resonate with many people in China today.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">45</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">One of the reasons that the regime draws so
much attention to the ‘Century of Humiliation’ is that it dreads the Chinese
remembering man-made disasters of the Maoist period.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">46</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
But the popular fury that is diverted into nationalism also reminds the
establishment too much of the anarchic civil violence of the Cultural
Revolution.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">47</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Ren Xue’an explained to me why commemorating recent domestic traumas was still
out of the question. ‘The Opium Wars were international issues, while the Cultural
Revolution was an internal problem. China has to deal with internal turmoil in
its own way . . . because the Chinese people aren’t educated. If we said, let’s
sit down now and discuss the Cultural Revolution, all the settling of scores
would mean we’d soon have a new civil war on our hands – it would be like the
French Revolution. It would be awful.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">48</span></sup></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">For all its promotion of state-defined
patriotism, the Chinese government has reason to be nervous of the feelings
this can unleash. Attitudes towards Japan offer a good example. It’s obvious
that the post-1989 state has, with the help of the Patriotic Education
campaign’s emphasis on historical traumas, worked on generating anti-Japanese
feeling. Under Mao, ‘peaceful, friendly relations’ with Japan had been state
policy – no reparations or apologies required. Through the 1990s and 2000s, by
contrast, hostility towards Japan grew in direct proportion to the CCP’s
expansion of public commemorations of the Second World War. A 2001 revision of
high-school history textbooks toned down the old Marxist, anti-imperialist
rhetoric on every one of China’s former aggressors – except for Japan.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">49</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
By 2007, textbook coverage of the Opium War had been slimmed down from eighteen
pages stuffed with images of evil British plunderers to a sketchier four.
Coverage of the Sino-Japanese War, by contrast, remained outraged: ‘Burning,
killing, raping, looting – there was no evil that Japan did not perpetrate’,
runs a caption directly opposite the photograph of a grinning Japanese soldier
standing among massacred Chinese. ‘What sufferings did Japan inflict upon the
Chinese people between 1931 and 1945?’ probes an essay question, instructing
students to search out victims to interview.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">50</span></sup></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Apparently as a result of this patriotic
education, in spring 2005 anti-Japanese demonstrations – fanned and organized
by Internet activists – broke out across China’s major cities, protesting
(amongst other things) the publication in Japan of new school textbooks that
hushed up wartime atrocities in China.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">51</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Yet although this movement began life converging with state-sponsored goals of
anti-foreign nationalism, it was clear that the demonstrations quickly moved
out of official control and into the hands of grass-roots organizations. As the
protests spread to a third weekend, an uneasy note crept into the authorities’
pre-emptive announcements: ‘Express your passion in an orderly manner,’ the police
instructed would-be demonstrators on the Internet, warning that all street
protests must be approved by the authorities and ordering well-known
grass-roots campaigners to stay at home. Soon after, a major government
newspaper denounced the anti-Japanese demonstrations as an ‘evil plot’ with
‘ulterior motives’ to bring down the Communist Party – an orthodox protest
movement had clearly boiled over into civil activism and potential subversion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Until 2009, one of China’s most passionate
anti-Japanese nationalists (founder of the Greater China Anti-Japanese
Alliance) was a former criminal judge turned philosophy professor called Guo
Quan, who won instant celebrity in 2005 for vandalizing the tomb of a Ming
Dynasty merchant </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">accused
of collaborating with Japanese pirates. In 2006, his feelings started to take
him in a new, anti-government direction. ‘I am against Japan,’ he wrote on the
Internet, ‘but also against the lack of democracy, freedom, and human rights in
Chinese society.’ By 2008, he had moved on to call openly for an overhaul of
the political system, forming a China New Democracy Party. On 13 November 2008,
he was arrested under charges of state subversion, and his computers, bank card
and mobile phone confiscated; on 16 October 2009, he was sentenced to ten
years’ imprisonment.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">52</span></sup></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The curious thing about contemporary China’s
most intemperate nationalists, then, is how easily their anger turns against
their own government and people. Public discontent about Japan’s refusal to
apologize for the Second World War, or claims to the Diaoyu Islands, often
spirals into fury at the Chinese government for failing to defend the country’s
honour, or contempt for the indifferent general public. The government’s tough
stance on <i>Freezing Point</i> in 2006 was motivated at least in part by a
desire to soothe cyber-nationalists outraged by the offending article’s
iconoclastic liberalism. Two days after the Carrefour protests erupted in 2008,
the Chinese authorities moved to dampen their nationalistic ardour. ‘Internet
users are in an intense mood toward Western countries’, noted government
censors. ‘Such information has shown a tendency to spread and, if not checked
in time, could even lead to events getting out of control’.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">53</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
‘It’s good your hearts are patriotic,’ one group of fledgling
anti-Tibetan-independence demonstrators were told by Public Security, ‘but you
can’t compromise social order and traffic flow.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">54</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
Chinese patriotism today must not imperil social stability, or frighten off
foreign investment – the key to achieving post-1989 China’s economic miracle
and to persuading the population to keep trusting in the wisdom of the
Communist Party. For China’s current rulers, the Century of Humiliation is a
tricky balancing act. Properly controlled, public memory of the Opium War and
later acts of imperialism provides a politically correct pressure valve for
venting strong feelings in the PRC’s tightly controlled public sphere.
Carelessly managed, these same feelings spill out into something dangerously
subversive.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Contemporary China and its current surge of
nationalism, then, are not as stable or monolithic as the CCP would ideally
like. In the summer of 2009, Martin Jacques’ carefully illustrated <i>When
China Rules the World</i> suggested, over the coming decades, the decline of
the West (with its model of liberal democracy) and the inexorable rise of a
probably authoritarian, racist China that views itself as a
‘civilization-state’: homogeneous, unchanging over (at least) the past 2,000
years, and convinced of its own superiority over the rest of the world. But
while political editorialists worried at the prospect of ‘the rise of the
middle kingdom and the end of the Western world’ (the book’s subtitle), other
China-watchers saw things differently. Six weeks after the book was published,
the political and environmental journalist Isabel Hilton pointed out, the
Muslim-dominated north-western province of Xinjiang erupted into racial
violence in which hundreds of Han Chinese settlers were killed or wounded;
tense paramilitary control descended, and a communications cordon was drawn up
around the region, cutting off Internet and mobile-phone connections. Hilton
argued against ‘a story that the Chinese government likes to tell: that China
is the world’s oldest continuous, unchanging civilization (the dates vary,
according to the exuberance of the moment, from 2,000 to a mythical 5,000
years) . . . A more accurate description would be that it is a recently expanded
land-based empire struggling to justify itself.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">55</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
For there is plenty of social and political volatility disturbing the
twenty-first century’s supposed new superpower (in the form of the tens of
thousands of ‘mass incidents’ – strikes, street demonstrations and so on – that
take place each year; an estimated 58,000 in the first quarter of 2009 alone);
and around the patriotism that seems to be fuelling its confident rise.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">China in the third millennium possesses (as
it did in the nineteenth century) about as many reasons to fall apart as it
does to stick together: banks riddled with bad loans, the challenges of finding
employment and pensions for a massive, rapidly ageing workforce, severe social
inequality (which, according to Chinese estimates, reached potentially
destabilizing levels as early as 1994), government corruption (at the end of
2009, a Chinese newspaper directly blamed the country’s rash of mass incidents
on officials ‘blindly pursuing profit’ through ‘expropriating land and
demolishing houses’), environmental degradation.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">56</span></sup></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
There is general agreement that the country has grown extraordinarily, and with
relative ease, over the past three decades. Consensus on what will come next is
non-existent.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">For 170 years, the Opium War and its
afterlives have cast a shadow over Sino-Western relations, both sides tampering
with the historical record for their own purposes. Influential
nineteenth-century Britons worked hard to fabricate a virtuous casus belli out
of an elementary problem of trade deficit: to reinvent the war as a clash of
civilizations triggered by the ‘unnaturally’ isolationist Chinese. Joining this
blame game, twentieth-century Chinese nation-builders in turn transformed it
into the cause of all their country’s troubles: into a black imperialist scheme
to enslave a united, heroically resisting China. The reality of the war itself,
by contrast, illuminated deep fault lines in the messily multi-ethnic Qing
empire, as China’s rulers struggled unsuccessfully to rally its officials,
soldiers and subjects against a foreign enemy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">The West’s public stance of
self-justification over the war overlaid a moral guilt that has subsequently
fanned further fears of, and tensions with, the Chinese state and people. Opium
became a symbol both of Western malfeasance and of a sinister Chinese
pollution, generating irrational clouds of Yellow Peril suspicion that arguably
still haunt our media coverage. In China, meanwhile, opium, defeat and
imperialism have manufactured an unstable combination of self-pity,
self-loathing and pragmatic admiration for the West that continue to coexist
uneasily in Chinese patriots.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">Whether Western nations such as Britain have
attacked the Chinese for their arrogance in refusing to pay them enough
attention or respect, lambasted themselves for what they did or obsessed </span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">paranoically about Chinese
retribution, one misconception has remained constant: that the West is central
to China’s calculations and actions. But both back in the nineteenth century
and now, China’s rulers have been primarily preoccupied with domestic affairs,
rather than foreign relations. This refusal to look at matters from the
perspective of the Chinese state’s own prerogatives helped drive Britain
towards war in the nineteenth century, and risks pushing relations towards
confrontation in the early twenty-first.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3158258962747780751" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3158258962747780751" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">In 1839, the Qing court was too distracted by
fears of social unrest to come up voluntarily with a pragmatic response to
Western trade demands; Britain interpreted this political paralysis as
inveterate xenophobia. In 2010, the situation did not look so very different,
with the government infuriating Western states over its rejection of
climate-change legislation that might slow growth, its harsh stance on social
control and its aversion to compromise on international-trade issues, such as
strengthening the <i>yuan</i> relative to the dollar (thereby making exported
Chinese manufactures more expensive, foreign imports less so). ‘The current
leadership’, China-watcher Jonathan Fenby observed in January 2010, ‘just want
to get to retirement without the country collapsing. And their caution
sometimes leads them into conflict with the West. Take the question of
revaluing the <i>yuan</i>. There’d be plenty of advantages: less danger of a
trade war with the US, cheaper imports. But they’re nervous of jeopardizing
economic growth or looking like they were capitulating to the West – the public
outcry in China might be too great.’</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">57</span></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">
For the noisy anti-Western nationalism that the state has programmatically
engineered since the 1920s (and with renewed energies after 1989) regularly
threatens to mutate into anti-government dissidence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: DFKai-SB;">From the age of opium-traders to the
Internet, China and the West have been infuriating and misunderstanding each
other, despite ever-increasing opportunities for contact, study and mutual
sympathy. Ten years into the twenty-first century, the nineteenth is still with
us.</span></div>
混沌http://www.blogger.com/profile/09625475588004025959noreply@blogger.com